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polymarket-bot/api/main.py
T
chemavx 5a3df975d9
CI/CD / build-and-push (push) Failing after 1m20s
fix(metrics): replace inflated PnL formula; drop fake calibration_score
total_pnl now uses edge_net × net_cost instead of (0.5 - entry_price) × shares.
The old formula overestimated BUY_NO trades at low entry prices by 3–10× because
buying at price 0.158 yields 3164 shares — any exit-at-0.5 assumption produced
$1072 PnL on $500 deployed. edge_net × net_cost is bounded by net_cost per trade
and uses the model's own signal, giving $122 for the same position.

calibration_score is now None (null in API) instead of 1 - 2×|avg_edge|. That
formula was not a real calibration: it requires knowing market resolutions
(YES=1/NO=0) which we do not store yet. Returning null is more honest than
returning 0.0 or a meaningless proxy. Fix 3 will compute it from closed trades.

check_promotion_thresholds updated to handle None calibration (null → not ready).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-21 16:47:05 +00:00

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"""
FastAPI Backend — serves metrics and trade data to the React dashboard.
"""
import asyncio
from contextlib import asynccontextmanager
from datetime import datetime, timezone
import os
import re
from fastapi import FastAPI
from fastapi.middleware.cors import CORSMiddleware
from bot.data.db import Database
# Matches the feat_str embedded in reasoning for trades from bayesian.py v2+:
# "fg=+0.0600 mom=+0.0000 news=+0.0000 mfld=-0.7483"
_FEAT_RE = re.compile(
r"fg=([+-]?[\d.]+).*?mom=([+-]?[\d.]+).*?news=([+-]?[\d.]+).*?mfld=([+-]?[\d.]+)"
)
def _enrich_trade(trade: dict) -> dict:
"""Add days_open and signal_components to an open trade dict."""
ts = trade.get("timestamp")
if ts is not None:
now = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
if getattr(ts, "tzinfo", None) is None:
ts = ts.replace(tzinfo=timezone.utc)
trade["days_open"] = round((now - ts).total_seconds() / 86400, 1)
else:
trade["days_open"] = None
reasoning = trade.get("reasoning") or ""
m = _FEAT_RE.search(reasoning)
trade["signal_components"] = (
{"fg": float(m.group(1)), "mom": float(m.group(2)),
"news": float(m.group(3)), "mfld": float(m.group(4))}
if m else None
)
return trade
db = Database()
@asynccontextmanager
async def lifespan(app: FastAPI):
await db.connect()
yield
await db.disconnect()
app = FastAPI(title="Polymarket Bot API", lifespan=lifespan)
app.add_middleware(
CORSMiddleware,
allow_origins=["*"],
allow_methods=["GET"],
allow_headers=["*"],
)
@app.get("/health")
async def health():
return {"status": "ok", "paper_mode": os.getenv("PAPER_MODE", "true")}
@app.get("/api/metrics")
async def get_metrics():
history = await db.get_metrics_history(days=42)
if not history:
return {"history": [], "latest": None}
return {"history": history, "latest": history[0]}
@app.get("/api/trades")
async def get_trades(limit: int = 50, status: str = "open"):
"""
status: "open" (default) | "closed" | "all"
Open trades include days_open and signal_components {fg, mom, news, mfld}.
"""
if status not in ("open", "closed", "all"):
status = "open"
filter_status = None if status == "all" else status
trades = await db.get_recent_trades(limit=limit, status=filter_status)
if filter_status == "open":
trades = [_enrich_trade(t) for t in trades]
return {"trades": trades, "count": len(trades), "status_filter": status}
@app.get("/api/summary")
async def get_summary():
"""Dashboard summary card data."""
history = await db.get_metrics_history(days=1)
open_trades, all_trades, inverted, legacy_count = await asyncio.gather(
db.get_recent_trades(limit=500, status="open"),
db.get_recent_trades(limit=500),
db.get_recently_closed_inverted(hours=24),
db.get_legacy_incomplete_count(),
)
latest = history[0] if history else {}
paper_bankroll = float(os.getenv("PAPER_BANKROLL", "10000"))
total_deployed = sum(t.get("net_cost", 0) for t in open_trades)
return {
"paper_mode": os.getenv("PAPER_MODE", "true") == "true",
"paper_bankroll": paper_bankroll,
"total_trades": len(all_trades),
"open_trades_count": len(open_trades),
"closed_trades_count": len(all_trades) - len(open_trades),
"total_deployed": total_deployed,
"cash_available": max(0.0, paper_bankroll - total_deployed),
"legacy_incomplete_count": legacy_count,
"reentry_guard_blocks_24h": len(inverted),
# Metrics from latest metrics_daily snapshot (computed by MetricsTracker).
# total_pnl: estimated unrealized PnL for open trades in the current bot
# session — uses edge_net × net_cost (model edge on deployed
# capital). Resets to 0 on pod restart until Fix 3 is applied.
# calibration_score: null until market resolution data is available
# (requires close_price / outcome per closed trade).
"total_pnl": latest.get("total_pnl", 0),
"win_rate": latest.get("win_rate", 0),
"sharpe_ratio": latest.get("sharpe_ratio", 0),
"calibration_score": latest.get("calibration_score"), # null if unavailable
"promotion_ready": (
latest.get("sharpe_ratio", 0) >= 0.5
and latest.get("win_rate", 0) >= 0.52
and (latest.get("calibration_score") or 0) >= 0.7 # null → not ready
and len(all_trades) >= 50
),
}