4 Commits

Author	SHA1	Message	Date
chemavx	5a3df975d9	fix(metrics): replace inflated PnL formula; drop fake calibration_score ... total_pnl now uses edge_net × net_cost instead of (0.5 - entry_price) × shares. The old formula overestimated BUY_NO trades at low entry prices by 3–10× because buying at price 0.158 yields 3164 shares — any exit-at-0.5 assumption produced $1072 PnL on $500 deployed. edge_net × net_cost is bounded by net_cost per trade and uses the model's own signal, giving $122 for the same position. calibration_score is now None (null in API) instead of 1 - 2×|avg_edge|. That formula was not a real calibration: it requires knowing market resolutions (YES=1/NO=0) which we do not store yet. Returning null is more honest than returning 0.0 or a meaningless proxy. Fix 3 will compute it from closed trades. check_promotion_thresholds updated to handle None calibration (null → not ready). Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>	2026-04-21 16:47:05 +00:00
chemavx	46f8f4b79a	feat(observability): fine-grained metrics for summary, trades, and cycle log ... api/summary — new fields: open_trades_count, closed_trades_count, cash_available (bankroll−deployed), legacy_incomplete_count, reentry_guard_blocks_24h parallel fetch via asyncio.gather for sub-ms overhead api/trades?status=open — trade enrichment: days_open (float, rounded to 1 decimal) signal_components {fg, mom, news, mfld} parsed from reasoning via regex Old trades without feat_str in reasoning return signal_components: null bayesian.py — reasoning now embeds feat_str: "fg=+0.0600 mom=+0.0000 news=+0.0000 mfld=-0.7483 |" Manifold counters: _manifold_fetched / _manifold_on_trade per cycle get_cycle_stats() exposes manifold_matches_accepted / manifold_matches_rejected bot/main.py — CYCLE SUMMARY 4 new fields: reentry_guard_blocked, legacy_incomplete_seen, family_conflicts_prevented, manifold_matches_accepted/rejected legacy_incomplete_count queried from DB once per cycle db.py — get_legacy_incomplete_count(): open trades with NULL edge_net Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>	2026-04-21 09:48:31 +00:00
chemavx	e2fb697c0c	fix: family_key repair, reentry guard, legacy_incomplete, trades status filter ... - db: update_family_key() persists corrected family slugs for open trades - db: get_recently_closed_inverted() returns markets closed for inversion within N hours; used as reentry guard in the trading loop - db: get_recent_trades() accepts status=open|closed|None and adds a computed "status" field to every row - bot/main.py: legacy scan now computes family_key from stored question alone (dummy Market) when a position's market is no longer active — fixes NULL family_key on legacy trades like Ken Paxton (562186) - bot/main.py: legacy scan (Step 2.5) persists corrected family_keys in DB so family conflict guards work correctly on next restart - bot/main.py: positions with NULL edge_net and no live market are tagged legacy_incomplete instead of OK; counted separately in scan summary - bot/main.py: reentry_guard blocks re-entering any market closed for inversion bug within 24h; logs reentry_guard_triggered per skip - api/main.py: /api/trades now accepts ?status=open|closed|all (default open) and includes status_filter in response DB fix (applied directly): 629558 family_key politics-2026 → ohio-gubernatorial-2026; 562186 family_key NULL → texas-republican-2026 Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>	2026-04-21 09:37:45 +00:00
chemavx	4fda34df3b	feat: initial commit — polymarket-bot source + CI/CD pipeline	2026-04-13 16:05:45 +00:00