chemavx
411d346261
CI/CD / build-and-push (push) Successful in 2m16s
BayesianStrategy now tracks per-cycle counters (reset each cycle): - skip_prior_extreme, skip_family - skip_edge_net_nonpositive (edge_net ≤ 0) - skip_edge_net_below_regime (0 < edge_net < regime_min) - evaluated_edges list for max/pct computations main.py logs one structured [CYCLE SUMMARY] block per cycle with: markets_total, markets_uncertainty_zone, max_edge_gross, max_edge_net, pct_edge_gross_gt_002, pct_edge_gross_gt_004, all blocked_by_* counters, trades_executed, gnews_queries_used/cap Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
492 lines
23 KiB
Python
492 lines
23 KiB
Python
"""
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Bayesian Market Making Strategy.
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Core idea:
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1. Compute a prior probability for a market outcome using external data
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2. Compare with Polymarket's current price
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3. If divergence > threshold + confidence is high enough → generate signal
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For crypto markets: if BTC is up 5% and fear/greed is 75 (greed),
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a market asking "Will BTC be above $X?" should be priced higher than
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Polymarket might reflect in a slow-moving order book.
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"""
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import logging
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import math
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from dataclasses import dataclass, field
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from datetime import datetime, timezone
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from typing import Optional, TYPE_CHECKING
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from bot.data.polymarket import Market, market_family_key
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from bot.data.external import ExternalSignals
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if TYPE_CHECKING:
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from bot.data.news import NewsClient
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log = logging.getLogger(__name__)
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# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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# Cost constants (Phase 1 — heuristics, not exact Polymarket exchange costs)
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# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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# spread_estimate: approximate half-spread for medium-liquidity Polymarket
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# markets. Real spread varies by market and time; 0.02 is a conservative
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# starting estimate. Replace with live order-book data when available.
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SPREAD_ESTIMATE: float = 0.02
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# commission_rate: Polymarket taker fee approximation. Current Polymarket fee
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# is 0% on CLOB but was 2% historically; keeping 2% as a conservative buffer
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# against future fee changes and exchange rate effects.
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COMMISSION_RATE: float = 0.02
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# Combined cost floor deducted from edge_gross to get edge_net.
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# edge_net = edge_gross - SPREAD_ESTIMATE - COMMISSION_RATE
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TOTAL_COST_RATE: float = SPREAD_ESTIMATE + COMMISSION_RATE # 0.04
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# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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# Other strategy constants
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# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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MIN_CONFIDENCE = 0.55 # Minimum confidence to generate a signal
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# Log-odds weight applied to the GNews sentiment score (range ±1.0).
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# A weight of 1.5 means a fully negative/positive signal shifts log-odds by ±1.5,
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# which moves a 50% prior to ~18%/82% — strong but not overwhelming.
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NEWS_LOGODDS_WEIGHT = 1.5
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# GNews free tier: 100 req/day. We limit to 5 queries per trading cycle
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# (politics markets only) and rely on 6 h cache to stay within budget.
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MAX_NEWS_QUERIES_PER_CYCLE = 5
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# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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# Phase 4 — Regime-based minimum edge (uses edge_NET, not edge_gross)
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# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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def _regime_min_edge(category: str, days_to_resolution: int) -> float:
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"""
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Return the minimum edge_net required to execute a trade.
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Thresholds are higher for far-future politics markets (less signal, more
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noise) and lower for near-term politics (time pressure makes any edge
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actionable). Tech/crypto use a flat threshold.
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category | days_to_resolution | min_edge_net
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──────────────────────┼────────────────────┼─────────────
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politics | > 60 d | 0.12
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politics | 30–60 d | 0.10
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politics | < 30 d | 0.08
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tech / crypto/finance | any | 0.10
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other / unknown | any | 0.10
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"""
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if category == "politics":
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if days_to_resolution > 60:
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return 0.12
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if days_to_resolution > 30:
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return 0.10
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return 0.08
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return 0.10 # tech, crypto/finance, events, default
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def _days_to_resolution(end_date: str) -> int:
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"""Return calendar days until market resolution, or 30 if unknown."""
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if not end_date:
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return 30 # conservative: treat as medium-term
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try:
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dt = datetime.fromisoformat(end_date.replace("Z", "+00:00"))
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if dt.tzinfo is None:
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dt = dt.replace(tzinfo=timezone.utc)
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days = (dt - datetime.now(timezone.utc)).days
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return max(0, days)
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except (ValueError, TypeError):
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return 30
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# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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# Phase 3 — GNews priority scoring
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# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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def gnews_priority(market: Market, news: "NewsClient") -> float:
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"""
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Score a market for GNews query priority (higher = more valuable to query).
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Formula: priority = uncertainty × volume_score × freshness
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uncertainty = 1 - |prior - 0.5| × 2 (1.0 at 50%, 0.0 at 0%/100%)
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volume_score = min(volume_24h / 10_000, 1.0)
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freshness = NewsClient.get_freshness(question)
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(1.0 never queried → 0.10 queried <2h ago)
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Markets with occupied families, or that have already been queried recently,
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score lower and receive GNews budget only if capacity remains.
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"""
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prior = max(0.05, min(0.95, market.yes_price))
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uncertainty = 1.0 - abs(prior - 0.5) * 2
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volume_score = min(market.volume_24h / 10_000, 1.0)
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freshness = news.get_freshness(market.question)
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return uncertainty * volume_score * freshness
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# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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# Signal and strategy classes
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# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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@dataclass
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class TradingSignal:
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market_id: str
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question: str
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polymarket_price: float # Current market price for YES (0-1)
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estimated_prob: float # Our Bayesian estimate (0-1)
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edge: float # Kept for backward compat — equals edge_gross
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confidence: float # How confident we are (0-1)
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direction: str # "BUY_YES" | "BUY_NO"
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reasoning: str # Human-readable explanation for logging
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sources: list[str] # Data sources used
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# ── Phase 1: edge neto ───────────────────────────────────────────────────
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edge_gross: float = 0.0 # |estimated_prob - polymarket_price|
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edge_net: float = 0.0 # edge_gross - SPREAD_ESTIMATE - COMMISSION_RATE
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prior_prob: float = 0.0 # market.yes_price clamped to [0.05, 0.95]
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final_prob: float = 0.0 # estimated_prob (explicit alias)
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# mid_price: (bid+ask)/2 from order book when available; falls back to
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# market.yes_price. Order-book fetching is a future enhancement — using
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# yes_price here is conservative (already the ask side).
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mid_price: float = 0.0
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spread_estimate: float = SPREAD_ESTIMATE
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# ── Phase 2: market families ─────────────────────────────────────────────
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family_key: str = ""
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# ── Phase 4: regime ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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regime_min_edge: float = 0.10
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class BayesianStrategy:
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"""
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Estimates true probability using external signals and Bayesian updating.
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Prior: Polymarket's current YES price (market consensus — not 0.5)
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Likelihood updates from:
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- BTC/ETH price momentum
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- Fear & Greed index
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- Market cap trend / BTC dominance
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- GNews sentiment (politics only, capped at MAX_NEWS_QUERIES_PER_CYCLE)
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Execution gate (Phase 1 + 4):
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- Compute edge_net = edge_gross - SPREAD_ESTIMATE - COMMISSION_RATE
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- Only trade when edge_net > regime_min_edge(category, days_to_resolution)
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Family deduplication (Phase 2):
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- At most 1 open position per market family per cycle.
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- Caller passes occupied_families; this method skips and logs SKIP_FAMILY.
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GNews prioritisation (Phase 3):
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- Caller pre-sorts politics markets by gnews_priority() (desc) so the
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highest-value markets consume the GNews budget first.
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- Within evaluate(), the per-cycle cap is enforced.
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"""
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def __init__(self, news: Optional["NewsClient"] = None) -> None:
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self._signal_count = 0
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self._news = news
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self._news_queries_this_cycle = 0
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# Per-cycle counters — reset by reset_cycle(), read by get_cycle_stats()
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self._skip_family: int = 0
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self._skip_prior_extreme: int = 0
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self._skip_edge_net_nonpositive: int = 0 # edge_net <= 0
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self._skip_edge_net_below_regime: int = 0 # 0 < edge_net < regime_min
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# (edge_gross, edge_net, regime_min) for every market that reached the
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# edge computation stage (passed prior-extreme, family, unsupported filters)
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self._evaluated_edges: list[tuple[float, float, float]] = []
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def reset_cycle(self) -> None:
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"""Call once at the start of each trading cycle to reset per-cycle counters."""
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self._news_queries_this_cycle = 0
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self._skip_family = 0
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self._skip_prior_extreme = 0
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self._skip_edge_net_nonpositive = 0
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self._skip_edge_net_below_regime = 0
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self._evaluated_edges = []
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def get_cycle_stats(self) -> dict:
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"""Return per-cycle counters for the [CYCLE SUMMARY] log block."""
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edges = self._evaluated_edges
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all_gross = [g for g, n, r in edges]
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all_net = [n for g, n, r in edges]
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return {
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"skip_family": self._skip_family,
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"skip_prior_extreme": self._skip_prior_extreme,
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"skip_edge_net_nonpositive": self._skip_edge_net_nonpositive,
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"skip_edge_net_below_regime": self._skip_edge_net_below_regime,
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"gnews_queries_used": self._news_queries_this_cycle,
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"max_edge_gross": max(all_gross) if all_gross else 0.0,
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"max_edge_net": max(all_net) if all_net else 0.0,
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"evaluated_count": len(edges),
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"gross_gt_002": sum(1 for g in all_gross if g > 0.02),
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"gross_gt_004": sum(1 for g in all_gross if g > 0.04),
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}
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async def evaluate(
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self,
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market: Market,
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ext: ExternalSignals,
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occupied_families: set[str],
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) -> Optional[TradingSignal]:
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"""
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Evaluate a market and return a TradingSignal if actionable.
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Returns None with a structured log line in all skip cases.
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Skip reasons (Phase 5 observability):
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SKIP_UNSUPPORTED — category not supported
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SKIP_NO_SIGNALS — external data unavailable
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SKIP_PRIOR_EXTREME — prior < 0.08 or > 0.92
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SKIP_FAMILY — family already has an open/pending position
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SKIP_EDGE_NET — edge_net < regime_min_edge
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SKIP_CONFIDENCE — confidence < MIN_CONFIDENCE
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"""
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question_lower = market.question.lower()
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category = market.category
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# ── Classify market type ─────────────────────────────────────────────
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is_price_above = any(w in question_lower for w in [
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"above", "over", "exceed", "higher", "atleast", "reach",
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])
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is_price_below = any(w in question_lower for w in [
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"below", "under", "less than", "lower", "drop",
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])
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is_btc = "btc" in question_lower or "bitcoin" in question_lower
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is_eth = "eth" in question_lower or "ethereum" in question_lower
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is_sol = "sol" in question_lower or "solana" in question_lower
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is_xrp = "xrp" in question_lower or "ripple" in question_lower
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is_doge = "doge" in question_lower or "dogecoin" in question_lower
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is_altcoin = is_sol or is_xrp or is_doge or any(
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w in question_lower for w in ["ltc", "litecoin", "bnb", "ada", "cardano", "avax", "avalanche"]
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)
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is_general_crypto = any(
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w in question_lower for w in ["crypto", "market cap", "total market", "altcoin", "defi"]
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)
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is_macro = any(
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w in question_lower for w in [
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"nasdaq", "s&p", "sp500", "inflation", "fed rate", "interest rate", "tariff",
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]
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)
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is_politics = category == "politics"
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is_tech = category == "tech"
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is_events = category == "events"
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is_any_supported = (
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is_btc or is_eth or is_altcoin or is_general_crypto or is_macro
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or is_politics or is_tech or is_events
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)
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if not is_any_supported:
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log.info(
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"SKIP_UNSUPPORTED %-50s | cat=%r",
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market.question[:50], category,
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)
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return None
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if not ext.valid:
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log.info(
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"SKIP_NO_SIGNALS %-50s | reason=external data unavailable",
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market.question[:50],
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)
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return None
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# ── Phase 1: prior + prior-extreme filter ────────────────────────────
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prior = max(0.05, min(0.95, market.yes_price))
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if market.yes_price < 0.08:
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self._skip_prior_extreme += 1
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log.info(
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"SKIP_PRIOR_EXTREME %-50s | cat=%-12s | prior=%.3f | reason=prior<0.08",
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market.question[:50], category, market.yes_price,
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)
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return None
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if market.yes_price > 0.92:
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self._skip_prior_extreme += 1
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log.info(
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"SKIP_PRIOR_EXTREME %-50s | cat=%-12s | prior=%.3f | reason=prior>0.92",
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market.question[:50], category, market.yes_price,
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)
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return None
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# ── Phase 2: family deduplication ────────────────────────────────────
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family = market_family_key(market)
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if family in occupied_families:
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self._skip_family += 1
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log.info(
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"SKIP_FAMILY %-50s | cat=%-12s | family=%s",
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market.question[:50], category, family,
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)
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return None
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# ── Phase 4: regime min-edge ─────────────────────────────────────────
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days = _days_to_resolution(market.end_date)
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regime_min = _regime_min_edge(category, days)
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# ── Bayesian probability estimation ──────────────────────────────────
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sources: list[str] = [f"Prior=poly({prior:.3f})"]
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adjustments: list[float] = []
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# Signal 1: price momentum (asset-specific or BTC as sentiment proxy)
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if is_btc:
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momentum = ext.btc_change_24h
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asset_label = "BTC"
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elif is_eth:
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momentum = ext.eth_change_24h
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asset_label = "ETH"
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elif is_politics or is_tech or is_events:
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momentum = ext.btc_change_24h
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asset_label = "BTC(sentiment)"
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else:
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momentum = ext.total_market_cap_change
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asset_label = "total mktcap"
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if abs(momentum) > 2:
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momentum_adj = math.tanh(momentum / 20) * 0.15
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if is_politics or is_tech or is_events:
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momentum_adj *= 0.5
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adjustments.append(momentum_adj if is_price_above else -momentum_adj)
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sources.append(f"{asset_label} 24h: {momentum:+.1f}%")
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# Signal 2: Fear & Greed
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fg = ext.fear_greed_index
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if fg > 70:
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fg_adj = 0.06
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sources.append(f"Fear&Greed: {fg} (greed)")
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elif fg < 30:
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fg_adj = -0.06
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sources.append(f"Fear&Greed: {fg} (fear)")
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else:
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fg_adj = (fg - 50) / 50 * 0.04
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sources.append(f"Fear&Greed: {fg} (neutral)")
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adjustments.append(fg_adj if is_price_above else -fg_adj)
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# Signal 3: BTC dominance — hurts altcoins when high
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if (is_eth or is_altcoin or is_general_crypto) and ext.btc_dominance > 55:
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adjustments.append(-0.03 if is_price_above else 0.03)
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sources.append(f"BTC dom: {ext.btc_dominance:.1f}% (high → alt pressure)")
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elif (is_eth or is_altcoin or is_general_crypto) and ext.btc_dominance < 45:
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adjustments.append(0.03 if is_price_above else -0.03)
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sources.append(f"BTC dom: {ext.btc_dominance:.1f}% (low → alt season)")
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# Signal 4: GNews sentiment (politics only, budget-gated)
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# Phase 3: caller has pre-sorted markets by gnews_priority() so the
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# highest-value markets reach this block first.
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news_log_adj = 0.0
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if is_politics and self._news is not None:
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if self._news_queries_this_cycle < MAX_NEWS_QUERIES_PER_CYCLE:
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self._news_queries_this_cycle += 1
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sentiment = await self._news.get_sentiment(market.question)
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if abs(sentiment) > 0.05:
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news_log_adj = sentiment * NEWS_LOGODDS_WEIGHT
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sources.append(f"GNews: {sentiment:+.2f}")
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else:
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log.info(
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"SKIP_GNEWS_PRIORITY %-50s | reason=cycle budget %d reached",
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market.question[:50], MAX_NEWS_QUERIES_PER_CYCLE,
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)
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# Confidence cap: macro/politics/tech signals are weaker proxies
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confidence_cap = 0.65 if (is_macro or is_politics or is_tech or is_events) else 0.90
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# Posterior via log-odds updating
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log_odds_prior = math.log(prior / (1 - prior))
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total_adj = sum(adjustments)
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estimated_prob = _sigmoid(log_odds_prior + total_adj * 2 + news_log_adj)
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estimated_prob = max(0.05, min(0.95, estimated_prob))
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# ── Phase 1: edge_gross and edge_net ─────────────────────────────────
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raw_edge = estimated_prob - market.yes_price
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direction = "BUY_YES" if raw_edge > 0 else "BUY_NO"
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edge_gross = abs(raw_edge)
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# NOTE: commission/size_usdc = COMMISSION_RATE always (constant fraction).
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edge_net = edge_gross - SPREAD_ESTIMATE - COMMISSION_RATE
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# mid_price falls back to yes_price; live order-book data is a future enhancement
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mid_price = market.yes_price
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# Record for cycle summary — every market that reached edge computation
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self._evaluated_edges.append((edge_gross, edge_net, regime_min))
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# Confidence based on signal agreement
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agreement = sum(1 for a in adjustments if (a > 0) == (total_adj > 0))
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confidence = min(confidence_cap, 0.4 + (agreement / max(len(adjustments), 1)) * 0.5)
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if news_log_adj != 0.0:
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confidence = min(confidence_cap, confidence + 0.10)
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# ── Phase 5: structured audit log ────────────────────────────────────
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passed_gross = edge_gross >= regime_min
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passed_net = edge_net >= regime_min
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can_trade = passed_net and confidence >= MIN_CONFIDENCE
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if not can_trade:
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# Increment the appropriate edge-net counter
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if edge_net <= 0:
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self._skip_edge_net_nonpositive += 1
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else:
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self._skip_edge_net_below_regime += 1
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skip_parts: list[str] = []
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if not passed_gross:
|
||
skip_parts.append(f"edge_gross={edge_gross:.3f}<{regime_min:.2f}(regime)")
|
||
elif not passed_net:
|
||
skip_parts.append(
|
||
f"edge_net={edge_net:.3f}<{regime_min:.2f}(regime) "
|
||
f"[gross={edge_gross:.3f} pass]"
|
||
)
|
||
if confidence < MIN_CONFIDENCE:
|
||
skip_parts.append(f"conf={confidence:.2f}<{MIN_CONFIDENCE}")
|
||
log.info(
|
||
"SKIP_EDGE_NET %-50s | cat=%-12s | family=%-28s | "
|
||
"prior=%.3f | est=%.3f | gross=%+.3f | net=%+.3f | "
|
||
"regime=%.2f | days=%d | conf=%.2f | signals=%s | %s",
|
||
market.question[:50], category, family,
|
||
prior, estimated_prob, edge_gross, edge_net,
|
||
regime_min, days, confidence,
|
||
", ".join(sources[1:]) or "none",
|
||
" | ".join(skip_parts),
|
||
)
|
||
return None
|
||
|
||
reasoning = (
|
||
f"Prior=poly({prior:.3f}) → estimate={estimated_prob:.3f} | "
|
||
f"Poly price={market.yes_price:.3f} | "
|
||
f"edge_gross={edge_gross:+.3f} | edge_net={edge_net:+.3f} | "
|
||
f"regime_min={regime_min:.2f} | days={days} | "
|
||
f"family={family} | "
|
||
f"Direction={direction} | "
|
||
f"Signals: {', '.join(sources[1:])}"
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
log.info(
|
||
"TRADE %-50s | cat=%-12s | family=%-28s | "
|
||
"prior=%.3f | est=%.3f | gross=%+.3f | net=%+.3f | "
|
||
"regime=%.2f | days=%d | conf=%.2f | dir=%-8s | signals=%s",
|
||
market.question[:50], category, family,
|
||
prior, estimated_prob, edge_gross, edge_net,
|
||
regime_min, days, confidence, direction,
|
||
", ".join(sources[1:]) or "none",
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
self._signal_count += 1
|
||
return TradingSignal(
|
||
market_id=market.id,
|
||
question=market.question,
|
||
polymarket_price=market.yes_price,
|
||
estimated_prob=estimated_prob,
|
||
edge=edge_gross, # backward compat — same as edge_gross
|
||
confidence=confidence,
|
||
direction=direction,
|
||
reasoning=reasoning,
|
||
sources=sources,
|
||
# Phase 1 new fields
|
||
edge_gross=edge_gross,
|
||
edge_net=edge_net,
|
||
prior_prob=prior,
|
||
final_prob=estimated_prob,
|
||
mid_price=mid_price,
|
||
spread_estimate=SPREAD_ESTIMATE,
|
||
# Phase 2 new fields
|
||
family_key=family,
|
||
# Phase 4 new fields
|
||
regime_min_edge=regime_min,
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
|
||
def _sigmoid(x: float) -> float:
|
||
return 1 / (1 + math.exp(-x))
|