polymarket-bot/bot/main.py

"""
Polymarket Trading Bot — Main Entry Point
# ci-test: 2026-04-16
"""
import asyncio
import logging
import os
from datetime import datetime, timezone

from bot.data.polymarket import PolymarketClient, Market, market_family_key
from bot.data.external import ExternalDataClient
from bot.data.news import NewsClient
from bot.data.manifold import ManifoldClient
from bot.strategy.bayesian import BayesianStrategy, gnews_priority, MAX_NEWS_QUERIES_PER_CYCLE
from bot.risk.manager import RiskManager
from bot.executor.paper import PaperExecutor
from bot.metrics.tracker import MetricsTracker
from bot.data.db import Database

logging.basicConfig(
    level=logging.INFO,
    format="%(asctime)s [%(levelname)s] %(name)s: %(message)s",
)
log = logging.getLogger("bot.main")

PAPER_MODE = os.getenv("PAPER_MODE", "true").lower() == "true"
PAPER_BANKROLL = float(os.getenv("PAPER_BANKROLL", "10000"))


async def run_trading_loop(
    poly: PolymarketClient,
    external: ExternalDataClient,
    strategy: BayesianStrategy,
    risk: RiskManager,
    executor: PaperExecutor,
    metrics: MetricsTracker,
    db: Database,
) -> None:
    """Main trading loop — runs every 60 seconds."""
    log.info("Trading loop started. PAPER_MODE=%s", PAPER_MODE)

    while True:
        try:
            # 1. Fetch active markets (90-day window)
            markets = await poly.get_active_markets()
            log.info("Found %d active markets", len(markets))

            # 2. Get external signals
            ext_data = await external.get_all_signals()

            # 3. Build occupied_families from the current open portfolio positions.
            #    This prevents re-entering a family where we already hold a position.
            #    We also pull from DB to survive pod restarts.
            portfolio = executor.get_portfolio()
            occupied_families: set[str] = set()
            for market_id in portfolio.positions:
                mkt = next((m for m in markets if m.id == market_id), None)
                if mkt:
                    occupied_families.add(market_family_key(mkt))
            # Also seed from DB in case a family was traded in a prior cycle
            # that isn't reflected in the current markets list
            db_families = await db.get_open_families()
            occupied_families |= db_families
            if occupied_families:
                log.info("Occupied families (from portfolio): %s", sorted(occupied_families))

            # 4. Sort markets.
            #    Politics: sort by gnews_priority DESC (highest-value markets get
            #              GNews budget first — Phase 3).
            #    Others:   sort by end_date ASC (soonest-resolving first).
            def _sort_key(m):
                try:
                    dt = datetime.fromisoformat(m.end_date.replace("Z", "+00:00"))
                except Exception:
                    dt = datetime(9999, 12, 31, tzinfo=timezone.utc)
                if m.category == "politics":
                    priority = gnews_priority(m, strategy._news) if strategy._news else 0.0
                    # Bucket 0 = politics, sort by priority DESC (negate for asc sort)
                    return (0, -priority, dt)
                return (1, 0.0, dt)

            markets = sorted(markets, key=_sort_key)

            for _m in markets:
                log.info(
                    "  [market] %-55s | cat=%-12s | family=%-28s | ends=%s | yes=%.3f",
                    _m.question[:55], _m.category, market_family_key(_m),
                    _m.end_date[:10] if _m.end_date else "?", _m.yes_price,
                )

            # Reset per-cycle GNews counter
            strategy.reset_cycle()

            # 5. Evaluate each market
            # Fetch markets recently closed for inversion bug — block re-entry for 24h
            inverted_guard: set[str] = await db.get_recently_closed_inverted(hours=24)
            if inverted_guard:
                log.info(
                    "Reentry guard active for %d market(s) (inversion, 24h): %s",
                    len(inverted_guard), sorted(inverted_guard),
                )

            reentry_guard_count = 0
            cycle_trades = 0
            for market in markets:
                if market.id in inverted_guard:
                    log.info(
                        "reentry_guard_triggered market=%s | skipping — closed for inversion within 24h | %s",
                        market.id, market.question[:60],
                    )
                    reentry_guard_count += 1
                    continue

                # evaluate() returns None for all skips — reasons are logged internally
                signal = await strategy.evaluate(market, ext_data, occupied_families)
                if signal is None:
                    continue

                log.info(
                    "Signal generated: market=%-50s | edge_gross=%+.3f | edge_net=%+.3f | "
                    "regime_min=%.2f | family=%s | conf=%.2f",
                    market.question[:50],
                    signal.edge_gross,
                    signal.edge_net,
                    signal.regime_min_edge,
                    signal.family_key,
                    signal.confidence,
                )

                # 6. Risk check + position sizing
                order = risk.size_order(signal, portfolio)
                if order is None:
                    log.debug("Risk manager rejected order for %s", market.id)
                    continue

                # 7. Execute (paper)
                trade = await executor.execute(order)
                if trade:
                    await metrics.record_trade(trade)
                    log.info("Trade executed: %s", trade)
                    # Block this family for the rest of the cycle (Phase 2)
                    occupied_families.add(signal.family_key)
                    cycle_trades += 1

            # 8. [CYCLE SUMMARY] — one block per cycle, stable format for grep/compare
            stats = strategy.get_cycle_stats()
            legacy_incomplete_count = await db.get_legacy_incomplete_count()
            n_total = len(markets)
            n_uncertainty = sum(1 for m in markets if 0.35 <= m.yes_price <= 0.65)
            n_eval = stats["evaluated_count"]
            def _pct(n: int, denom: int) -> str:
                if denom == 0:
                    return "0% (0/0)"
                return f"{n * 100 // denom}% ({n}/{denom})"
            gnews_cap = strategy._news_queries_this_cycle  # already updated by reset below

            log.info(
                "[CYCLE SUMMARY]\n"
                "  markets_total:                  %d\n"
                "  markets_uncertainty_zone:       %d (prior 0.35-0.65)\n"
                "  max_edge_gross:                 %+.3f\n"
                "  max_edge_net:                   %+.3f\n"
                "  pct_edge_gross_gt_002:          %s\n"
                "  pct_edge_gross_gt_004:          %s\n"
                "  blocked_by_family:              %d\n"
                "  blocked_by_prior_extreme:       %d\n"
                "  blocked_by_edge_net_nonpositive:%d\n"
                "  blocked_by_edge_net_below_regime:%d\n"
                "  trades_executed:                %d\n"
                "  gnews_queries_used:             %d/%d\n"
                "  reentry_guard_blocked:          %d\n"
                "  legacy_incomplete_seen:         %d\n"
                "  family_conflicts_prevented:     %d\n"
                "  manifold_matches_accepted:      %d\n"
                "  manifold_matches_rejected:      %d",
                n_total,
                n_uncertainty,
                stats["max_edge_gross"],
                stats["max_edge_net"],
                _pct(stats["gross_gt_002"], n_total),
                _pct(stats["gross_gt_004"], n_total),
                stats["skip_family"],
                stats["skip_prior_extreme"],
                stats["skip_edge_net_nonpositive"],
                stats["skip_edge_net_below_regime"],
                cycle_trades,
                stats["gnews_queries_used"], MAX_NEWS_QUERIES_PER_CYCLE,
                reentry_guard_count,
                legacy_incomplete_count,
                stats["skip_family"],
                stats["manifold_matches_accepted"],
                stats["manifold_matches_rejected"],
            )

            # 9. Update daily metrics
            await metrics.update_daily_summary()

        except Exception as e:
            log.error("Error in trading loop: %s", e, exc_info=True)

        await asyncio.sleep(60)


async def run_legacy_scan(
    db: Database,
    markets: list,
    manifold: ManifoldClient,
    executor: PaperExecutor,
    paper_mode: bool,
) -> None:
    """
    One-time startup scan: re-key all open DB positions with the current
    market_family_key() logic, detect contradictions, re-validate Manifold
    signals, and report KEEP / REVIEW / CLOSE_RECOMMENDED per position.

    In paper_mode: auto-closes all CLOSE_RECOMMENDED positions after logging.
    """
    positions = await db.get_open_position_details()
    if not positions:
        log.info("Legacy scan: no open positions — skipping.")
        return

    market_by_id: dict = {str(m.id): m for m in markets}

    # Step 1: enrich each position with the re-computed family key
    enriched: list[dict] = []
    for pos in positions:
        mid = str(pos["market_id"])
        live_mkt = market_by_id.get(mid)
        old_fk = pos.get("family_key") or ""
        if live_mkt:
            new_fk = market_family_key(live_mkt)
        else:
            # Market not in active list — compute from stored question alone
            _dummy = Market(
                id=mid, condition_id="", question=pos["question"],
                yes_token_id="", no_token_id="",
                yes_price=0.5, no_price=0.5,
                volume_24h=0, end_date="", active=False, category="",
            )
            computed = market_family_key(_dummy)
            # Reject degenerate fallbacks that start with "-" (missing category + end_date)
            new_fk = computed if not computed.startswith("-") else (old_fk or "unknown")

        is_legacy_incomplete = (pos.get("edge_net") is None) and (not live_mkt)
        enriched.append({
            **dict(pos),
            "market_id": mid,
            "live_market": live_mkt,
            "family_key_old": old_fk,
            "family_key_new": new_fk,
            "fk_changed": new_fk != old_fk,
            "manifold_prob_new": None,
            "manifold_inverted": False,
            "recommendation": "legacy_incomplete" if is_legacy_incomplete else "OK",
            "rec_reason": "edge_net and live market unavailable" if is_legacy_incomplete else "no family conflict",
        })

    # Step 2: group by new family key — identify conflicting siblings
    family_groups: dict[str, list[dict]] = {}
    for p in enriched:
        family_groups.setdefault(p["family_key_new"], []).append(p)

    for p in enriched:
        group = family_groups[p["family_key_new"]]
        if len(group) > 1:
            best = max(group, key=lambda x: (x.get("edge_net") or 0.0))
            if p["market_id"] == best["market_id"]:
                p["recommendation"] = "KEEP"
                p["rec_reason"] = (
                    f"highest edge_net={p.get('edge_net') or 0.0:.3f} in family"
                )
            else:
                p["recommendation"] = "CLOSE_RECOMMENDED"
                p["rec_reason"] = (
                    f"family conflict: sibling {best['market_id']} "
                    f"has edge_net={best.get('edge_net') or 0.0:.3f}"
                )
        elif p["fk_changed"]:
            p["recommendation"] = "REVIEW"
            p["rec_reason"] = "family key changed but no sibling conflict"

    # Step 2.5: persist corrected family keys in DB for changed positions
    for p in enriched:
        if p["fk_changed"] and p["family_key_new"] not in ("unknown", ""):
            await db.update_family_key(p["market_id"], p["family_key_new"])
            log.info(
                "family_key updated in DB: market=%s | %s → %s",
                p["market_id"], p["family_key_old"] or "none", p["family_key_new"],
            )

    # Step 3: Manifold re-query for positions whose family key changed
    for p in enriched:
        if p["live_market"] and p["fk_changed"]:
            prob = await manifold.get_probability(p["question"])
            p["manifold_prob_new"] = prob
            if prob is not None:
                # Detect if original trade direction conflicts with corrected Manifold signal
                if prob < 0.40 and p["direction"] == "BUY_YES":
                    p["manifold_inverted"] = True
                    note = f"Manifold:{prob:.3f} contradicts BUY_YES (inversion bug confirmed)"
                    if p["recommendation"] in ("OK", "REVIEW"):
                        p["recommendation"] = "CLOSE_RECOMMENDED"
                        p["rec_reason"] = note
                    else:
                        p["rec_reason"] += f" | {note}"
                elif prob > 0.60 and p["direction"] == "BUY_NO":
                    p["manifold_inverted"] = True
                    note = f"Manifold:{prob:.3f} contradicts BUY_NO (inversion bug confirmed)"
                    if p["recommendation"] in ("OK", "REVIEW"):
                        p["recommendation"] = "CLOSE_RECOMMENDED"
                        p["rec_reason"] = note
                    else:
                        p["rec_reason"] += f" | {note}"

    # Step 4: log the full scan report (before any closures)
    n_close    = sum(1 for p in enriched if p["recommendation"] == "CLOSE_RECOMMENDED")
    n_keep     = sum(1 for p in enriched if p["recommendation"] == "KEEP")
    n_ok       = sum(1 for p in enriched if p["recommendation"] == "OK")
    n_review   = sum(1 for p in enriched if p["recommendation"] == "REVIEW")
    n_legacy   = sum(1 for p in enriched if p["recommendation"] == "legacy_incomplete")

    log.warning(
        "━" * 70 + "\nLEGACY SCAN — %d position(s): OK=%d  KEEP=%d  REVIEW=%d  CLOSE_RECOMMENDED=%d  LEGACY_INCOMPLETE=%d",
        len(enriched), n_ok, n_keep, n_review, n_close, n_legacy,
    )
    for p in enriched:
        log.warning(
            "  [%-18s] market=%-8s | dir=%-8s | edge_net=%+.3f\n"
            "                        stored_family: %s\n"
            "                        new_family:    %s%s\n"
            "                        manifold_new:  %s\n"
            "                        reason: %s",
            p["recommendation"],
            p["market_id"], p["direction"],
            p.get("edge_net") or 0.0,
            p["family_key_old"] or "none",
            p["family_key_new"],
            " [CHANGED]" if p["fk_changed"] else "",
            f"{p['manifold_prob_new']:.3f}" if p["manifold_prob_new"] is not None else "n/a",
            p["rec_reason"],
        )
    log.warning("━" * 70)

    # Step 5: auto-close in paper mode
    if paper_mode and n_close > 0 and isinstance(executor, PaperExecutor):
        log.warning("PAPER MODE: auto-closing %d CLOSE_RECOMMENDED position(s)...", n_close)
        for p in enriched:
            if p["recommendation"] == "CLOSE_RECOMMENDED":
                recovered = await executor.close_legacy_position(p["market_id"], p["rec_reason"])
                log.warning(
                    "  AUTO_CLOSED market=%s | $%.2f returned to cash | %s",
                    p["market_id"], recovered, p["question"][:60],
                )
        log.warning("Legacy scan closures complete.")
    elif n_close > 0:
        log.warning("REAL MODE: %d position(s) marked CLOSE_RECOMMENDED — close manually.", n_close)


async def main() -> None:
    if PAPER_MODE:
        log.info("=" * 60)
        log.info("  PAPER TRADING MODE — No real money at risk")
        log.info("  Bankroll: $%.2f simulated", PAPER_BANKROLL)
        log.info("=" * 60)
    else:
        log.warning("REAL TRADING MODE ACTIVE — Real money at risk!")

    db = Database()
    await db.connect()
    await db.run_migrations()
    await db.backfill_feature_columns()

    poly = PolymarketClient()
    external = ExternalDataClient()
    news = NewsClient()
    manifold = ManifoldClient()
    strategy = BayesianStrategy(news=news, manifold=manifold)
    risk = RiskManager(max_position_pct=0.05, max_exposure_pct=0.30)
    executor = PaperExecutor(db=db, bankroll=PAPER_BANKROLL) if PAPER_MODE else None
    metrics = MetricsTracker(db=db)

    if executor is None:
        from bot.executor.real import RealExecutor  # noqa
        executor = RealExecutor(db=db)

    if PAPER_MODE:
        await executor.initialize()

    # Legacy scan: re-key all open positions, detect contradictions, auto-close
    # CLOSE_RECOMMENDED in paper mode.  Runs once at startup using a fresh
    # market snapshot; the trading loop will re-fetch on its own first cycle.
    try:
        scan_markets = await poly.get_active_markets()
    except Exception as e:
        log.warning("Could not fetch markets for legacy scan: %s — scan skipped", e)
        scan_markets = []
    await run_legacy_scan(db, scan_markets, manifold, executor, PAPER_MODE)

    try:
        await run_trading_loop(poly, external, strategy, risk, executor, metrics, db)
    finally:
        await db.disconnect()
        await news.close()
        await manifold.close()


if __name__ == "__main__":
    asyncio.run(main())