T

chemavxandClaude Fable 5 0ac48ba7f8 feat(replay): R1 replay core — clock injection + replay of archived cycles

Re-executes BayesianStrategy.evaluate() over the R0 archive and stores
results in replay_runs/replay_decisions, tagged with git sha + a hash of
the strategy constants (same hash vs archive = determinism check,
different hash = counterfactual run).

- bayesian.py: optional as_of param on evaluate()/_days_to_resolution()
  (clock injection; default None = wall clock, prod behavior unchanged —
  the only touch to frozen code, purely additive)
- bot/replay.py: replay engine + CLI (python -m bot.replay --from --to);
  ReplayNews feeds archived sentiment back (GNews never called, per-cycle
  budget bypassed — archived sentiment already encodes it); manifold/db
  not wired (observational-only in prod); recorded-vs-replayed compare
  at 1e-9 tolerance
- schema.sql: replay_runs + replay_decisions (+ indexes), idempotent
- db.py: 6 replay accessors/writers
- tests: 19 new round-trip fidelity tests (104 total green)

Validated against a real prod cycle (2026-07-02T14:03:15Z, 46 markets,
4 skip paths incl. the Georgia confidence record): 46/46 matched,
max float delta 0.0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

2026-07-02 14:05:25 +00:00

.gitea/workflows

ci: build only the images whose source files changed

2026-06-12 08:07:49 +00:00

api

feat(metrics): real Sharpe ratio from daily PnL curve with minimum-sample gate

2026-06-12 07:12:55 +00:00

bot

feat(replay): R1 replay core — clock injection + replay of archived cycles

2026-07-02 14:05:25 +00:00

dashboard

feat(metrics): real Sharpe ratio from daily PnL curve with minimum-sample gate

2026-06-12 07:12:55 +00:00

tests

feat(replay): R1 replay core — clock injection + replay of archived cycles

2026-07-02 14:05:25 +00:00

.gitignore

feat: initial commit — polymarket-bot source + CI/CD pipeline

2026-04-13 16:05:45 +00:00

Dockerfile

feat: initial commit — polymarket-bot source + CI/CD pipeline

2026-04-13 16:05:45 +00:00

Dockerfile.api

feat: initial commit — polymarket-bot source + CI/CD pipeline

2026-04-13 16:05:45 +00:00

README.md

docs: add README with component map and selective CI behavior

2026-06-12 08:08:42 +00:00

renovate.json

Add renovate.json

2026-05-20 13:52:53 +00:00

requirements.txt

feat(news): replace keyword sentiment with VADER

2026-04-14 12:42:19 +00:00

README.md

polymarket-bot

Bot de paper-trading para Polymarket con estrategia bayesiana, API FastAPI y dashboard React. Corre en k3s vía GitOps (Gitea Actions → registry → ArgoCD).

Componentes

Componente	Código	Imagen	CMD
bot	`bot/`	`polymarket-bot`	`python3 -m bot.main`
api	`api/` (+ `bot/` como librería)	`polymarket-bot-api`	`uvicorn api.main:app`
dashboard	`dashboard/`	`polymarket-bot-dashboard`	nginx estático

Dashboard: https://polymarket.chemavx.xyz

CI/CD

.gitea/workflows/ci.yml construye solo las imágenes cuyos ficheros cambiaron en el push (diff contra github.event.before):

bot/, api/, requirements.txt → bot + api (ambas imágenes copian las mismas fuentes Python; solo cambia el CMD)
Dockerfile → bot · Dockerfile.api → api · dashboard/ → dashboard
.gitea/workflows/ci.yml, primer push o force-push → todas (fallback seguro)
tests/, docs → ninguna (la CI no construye ni despliega nada)

Las imágenes se tagean con ${GITHUB_SHA::8}; el CI actualiza solo los deployments reconstruidos en k8s-manifests/polymarket-bot/ y ArgoCD sincroniza vía webhook en segundos.

Tests

python3 -m pytest tests/ -q