ci: bump outcomes-joiner CronJob image tag alongside deployment-bot

The outcomes-joiner CronJob (k8s-manifests, Replay R2) runs the same bot
image; without this its tag would freeze at the sha it was created with
while the deployment moves on. Same sed, one more file.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

.gitea/workflows/ci.yml

@@ -178,7 +178,8 @@ jobs:
           # keep their current (still existing) tag in the registry.
           if [ "${{ steps.changes.outputs.build_bot }}" = "true" ]; then
             sed -i "s|image: .*polymarket-bot[^-].*|image: git.chemavx.xyz/chemavx/polymarket-bot:${TAG}|g" \
-              polymarket-bot/deployment-bot.yaml
+              polymarket-bot/deployment-bot.yaml \
+              polymarket-bot/cronjob-outcomes.yaml
           fi
           if [ "${{ steps.changes.outputs.build_api }}" = "true" ]; then
             sed -i "s|image: .*polymarket-bot-api.*|image: git.chemavx.xyz/chemavx/polymarket-bot-api:${TAG}|g" \

bot/data/db.py

@@ -826,6 +826,75 @@ class Database:
                 ) VALUES ($1,$2,$3,$4,$5,$6,$7,$8,$9,$10,$11,$12,$13,$14,$15,$16,$17)
             """, rows)
 
+    # ── Replay R2: outcomes + calibration metrics ────────────────────────────
+
+    async def get_unresolved_archived_market_ids(self) -> list[str]:
+        """Archived markets (present in signals) with no stored outcome yet."""
+        async with self._pool.acquire() as conn:
+            rows = await conn.fetch("""
+                SELECT DISTINCT s.market_id FROM signals s
+                LEFT JOIN market_outcomes o ON o.market_id = s.market_id
+                WHERE o.market_id IS NULL
+                ORDER BY s.market_id
+            """)
+        return [r["market_id"] for r in rows]
+
+    async def upsert_market_outcome(
+        self, market_id: str, outcome: float, resolved_at
+    ) -> None:
+        async with self._pool.acquire() as conn:
+            await conn.execute("""
+                INSERT INTO market_outcomes (market_id, outcome, resolved_at)
+                VALUES ($1, $2, $3)
+                ON CONFLICT (market_id) DO UPDATE
+                SET outcome = EXCLUDED.outcome,
+                    resolved_at = EXCLUDED.resolved_at,
+                    fetched_at = NOW()
+            """, market_id, outcome, resolved_at)
+
+    async def get_outcome_coverage(self) -> dict:
+        """How much of the archive is scorable: resolved vs archived markets."""
+        async with self._pool.acquire() as conn:
+            row = await conn.fetchrow("""
+                SELECT
+                    (SELECT COUNT(DISTINCT market_id) FROM signals)  AS archived,
+                    (SELECT COUNT(*) FROM market_outcomes
+                     WHERE market_id IN (SELECT DISTINCT market_id FROM signals)
+                    ) AS resolved
+            """)
+        return dict(row)
+
+    async def get_calibration_rows(self, run_id: Optional[str] = None) -> list[dict]:
+        """Every archived evaluation with a full estimate AND a known outcome.
+
+        run_id None scores the R0 archive (signals); a run_id scores that
+        replay run's re-estimates instead (counterfactual calibration).
+        Rows without estimated_prob (skipped before estimation: prior_extreme,
+        unsupported, family, no_signals) carry no model prediction to score.
+        """
+        async with self._pool.acquire() as conn:
+            if run_id is None:
+                rows = await conn.fetch("""
+                    SELECT s.market_id, s.category,
+                           s.estimated_prob, s.prior_prob, o.outcome
+                    FROM signals s
+                    JOIN market_outcomes o ON o.market_id = s.market_id
+                    WHERE s.estimated_prob IS NOT NULL
+                      AND s.prior_prob IS NOT NULL
+                """)
+            else:
+                rows = await conn.fetch("""
+                    SELECT d.market_id, m.category,
+                           d.estimated_prob, d.prior_prob, o.outcome
+                    FROM replay_decisions d
+                    JOIN market_outcomes o ON o.market_id = d.market_id
+                    LEFT JOIN markets m ON m.id = d.market_id
+                    WHERE d.run_id = $1
+                      AND d.estimated_prob IS NOT NULL
+                      AND d.prior_prob IS NOT NULL
+                """, run_id)
+        return [dict(r) for r in rows]
+
     async def mark_manifold_audit_used(self, audit_id: str) -> None:
         async with self._pool.acquire() as conn:
             await conn.execute(

bot/data/schema.sql

@@ -431,3 +431,24 @@ CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS replay_decisions (
 
 CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_replay_decisions_run ON replay_decisions(run_id);
 CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_replay_decisions_mkt ON replay_decisions(market_id);
+
+-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+-- Replay R2: outcomes + calibration metrics
+--
+-- One row per resolved market, fetched from the Gamma API via
+-- get_market_resolution() (UMA-final only: a market closed but still in
+-- proposal/dispute is not stored).  outcome is the final YES price:
+-- 1.0 = YES won, 0.0 = NO won.
+--
+-- Joining signals (or replay_decisions) to market_outcomes scores every
+-- archived estimate against reality — Brier / log-loss of estimated_prob
+-- benchmarked against the market price (prior_prob) on the same rows,
+-- answering "does the model add value over the market?" across ALL
+-- evaluations, not just executed trades.
+-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS market_outcomes (
+    market_id   TEXT PRIMARY KEY,
+    outcome     DOUBLE PRECISION NOT NULL,
+    resolved_at TIMESTAMPTZ,
+    fetched_at  TIMESTAMPTZ DEFAULT NOW()
+);

bot/outcomes.py

@@ -0,0 +1,208 @@
+"""
+Replay R2 — outcomes + calibration metrics.
+
+Two phases, one CLI:
+
+1. Fetch: for every archived market (present in `signals`) without a stored
+   outcome, ask the Gamma API via PolymarketClient.get_market_resolution()
+   — the same UMA-finality gate the trading loop uses to settle positions.
+   Definitive resolutions are upserted into `market_outcomes`; open, disputed
+   or ambiguous markets are simply retried on the next invocation.  There is
+   no data-loss urgency here (unlike the R0 recorder): Gamma reports past
+   resolutions at any time, so running this lazily loses nothing.
+
+2. Score: join archived estimates to outcomes and compute Brier / log-loss of
+   estimated_prob, benchmarked against the market price (prior_prob) on the
+   same rows.  This scores ALL evaluations with a full estimate — the sample
+   multiplier the phase plan calls for — not just executed trades.  With
+   --run-id it scores a replay run's re-estimates instead (counterfactual
+   calibration: did config X predict better than the market?).
+
+Reading the numbers: lower is better for both metrics; model < prior means
+the model added information over the market price.  Micro averages weight
+every evaluation equally, so long-lived markets (~1 evaluation/min while in
+the universe) dominate; macro averages score each market once (mean of its
+evaluations) and answer the same question per market.  Evaluations of one
+market minutes apart are highly autocorrelated — n_evaluations overstates
+the effective sample size, n_markets is the honest one.
+
+CLI:
+    python -m bot.outcomes                  # fetch new outcomes, then score archive
+    python -m bot.outcomes --fetch-only
+    python -m bot.outcomes --metrics-only
+    python -m bot.outcomes --run-id UUID    # score a replay run (implies no fetch)
+"""
+import argparse
+import asyncio
+import logging
+import math
+from collections import defaultdict
+from typing import Optional
+
+from bot.data.db import Database
+from bot.data.polymarket import PolymarketClient
+
+log = logging.getLogger(__name__)
+
+# Clip probabilities before log() so a (theoretical) hard 0/1 estimate on a
+# wrong outcome scores ~20.7 nats instead of infinity poisoning the mean.
+LOGLOSS_EPS = 1e-9
+
+
+async def fetch_outcomes(poly, market_ids: list[str]) -> list[dict]:
+    """Resolve archived markets against Gamma; returns only definitive ones.
+
+    Sequential on purpose: ~50 markets per invocation, and the Gamma API has
+    no bulk endpoint.  get_market_resolution() already returns None on API
+    errors and resolved=False on open/disputed/ambiguous markets.
+    """
+    resolved = []
+    for market_id in market_ids:
+        res = await poly.get_market_resolution(market_id)
+        if res is None or not res.resolved or res.resolution is None:
+            continue
+        resolved.append({
+            "market_id": market_id,
+            "outcome": res.resolution,
+            "resolved_at": res.resolved_at,
+        })
+    return resolved
+
+
+def _logloss(p: float, outcome: float) -> float:
+    p = min(max(p, LOGLOSS_EPS), 1.0 - LOGLOSS_EPS)
+    return -math.log(p) if outcome == 1.0 else -math.log(1.0 - p)
+
+
+def compute_calibration(rows: list[dict]) -> Optional[dict]:
+    """Score estimated_prob vs prior_prob against outcomes; None if no rows.
+
+    rows: dicts with market_id, category, estimated_prob, prior_prob, outcome.
+    Pure function — the CLI feeds it DB rows, tests feed it literals.
+    """
+    if not rows:
+        return None
+
+    n = len(rows)
+    brier_model = sum((r["estimated_prob"] - r["outcome"]) ** 2 for r in rows) / n
+    brier_prior = sum((r["prior_prob"] - r["outcome"]) ** 2 for r in rows) / n
+    logloss_model = sum(_logloss(r["estimated_prob"], r["outcome"]) for r in rows) / n
+    logloss_prior = sum(_logloss(r["prior_prob"], r["outcome"]) for r in rows) / n
+
+    by_market: dict[str, list[dict]] = defaultdict(list)
+    for r in rows:
+        by_market[r["market_id"]].append(r)
+    market_briers = [
+        (
+            sum((r["estimated_prob"] - r["outcome"]) ** 2 for r in mrows) / len(mrows),
+            sum((r["prior_prob"] - r["outcome"]) ** 2 for r in mrows) / len(mrows),
+        )
+        for mrows in by_market.values()
+    ]
+    brier_model_macro = sum(b[0] for b in market_briers) / len(market_briers)
+    brier_prior_macro = sum(b[1] for b in market_briers) / len(market_briers)
+
+    by_category: dict[str, list[dict]] = defaultdict(list)
+    for r in rows:
+        by_category[r["category"] or "unknown"].append(r)
+    per_category = {
+        cat: {
+            "n": len(crows),
+            "markets": len({r["market_id"] for r in crows}),
+            "brier_model": sum((r["estimated_prob"] - r["outcome"]) ** 2
+                               for r in crows) / len(crows),
+            "brier_prior": sum((r["prior_prob"] - r["outcome"]) ** 2
+                               for r in crows) / len(crows),
+        }
+        for cat, crows in sorted(by_category.items())
+    }
+
+    return {
+        "n_evaluations": n,
+        "n_markets": len(by_market),
+        "brier_model": brier_model,
+        "brier_prior": brier_prior,
+        "brier_model_macro": brier_model_macro,
+        "brier_prior_macro": brier_prior_macro,
+        "logloss_model": logloss_model,
+        "logloss_prior": logloss_prior,
+        "per_category": per_category,
+    }
+
+
+def print_report(metrics: Optional[dict], source: str) -> None:
+    if metrics is None:
+        print(f"calibration : no scorable rows yet for {source} "
+              "(no archived estimate has a resolved outcome)")
+        return
+    print(f"calibration : {source} — {metrics['n_evaluations']} evaluations, "
+          f"{metrics['n_markets']} markets")
+    print(f"{'':14s}{'model':>10s}{'market':>10s}{'delta':>10s}")
+    for label, m_key, p_key in (
+        ("Brier micro", "brier_model", "brier_prior"),
+        ("Brier macro", "brier_model_macro", "brier_prior_macro"),
+        ("logloss micro", "logloss_model", "logloss_prior"),
+    ):
+        m, p = metrics[m_key], metrics[p_key]
+        print(f"  {label:12s}{m:>10.4f}{p:>10.4f}{m - p:>+10.4f}")
+    print("  (delta < 0 = model beats the market price)")
+    for cat, c in metrics["per_category"].items():
+        print(f"  {cat:12s}n={c['n']:<6d} markets={c['markets']:<3d} "
+              f"brier model {c['brier_model']:.4f} vs market {c['brier_prior']:.4f}")
+
+
+async def _amain(args: argparse.Namespace) -> None:
+    db = Database()
+    await db.connect()
+    try:
+        if not args.metrics_only and args.run_id is None:
+            pending = await db.get_unresolved_archived_market_ids()
+            poly = PolymarketClient()
+            try:
+                resolved = await fetch_outcomes(poly, pending)
+            finally:
+                await poly.close()
+            for out in resolved:
+                await db.upsert_market_outcome(
+                    out["market_id"], out["outcome"], out["resolved_at"]
+                )
+            print(f"outcomes    : {len(resolved)} newly resolved "
+                  f"(of {len(pending)} pending markets checked)")
+
+        coverage = await db.get_outcome_coverage()
+        print(f"coverage    : {coverage['resolved']}/{coverage['archived']} "
+              "archived markets resolved")
+
+        if args.fetch_only:
+            return
+        rows = await db.get_calibration_rows(run_id=args.run_id)
+        source = f"replay run {args.run_id}" if args.run_id else "R0 archive"
+        print_report(compute_calibration(rows), source)
+    finally:
+        await db.disconnect()
+
+
+def main() -> None:
+    parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(
+        prog="python -m bot.outcomes",
+        description="Fetch market resolutions and score archived estimates.",
+    )
+    parser.add_argument("--fetch-only", action="store_true",
+                        help="only fetch/store outcomes, skip metrics")
+    parser.add_argument("--metrics-only", action="store_true",
+                        help="skip the Gamma fetch, score what is stored")
+    parser.add_argument("--run-id", default=None,
+                        help="score a replay run's re-estimates instead of "
+                             "the R0 archive (implies --metrics-only)")
+    args = parser.parse_args()
+    if args.fetch_only and args.metrics_only:
+        parser.error("--fetch-only and --metrics-only are mutually exclusive")
+    logging.basicConfig(
+        level=logging.INFO,
+        format="%(asctime)s [%(levelname)s] %(name)s: %(message)s",
+    )
+    asyncio.run(_amain(args))
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    main()

tests/test_outcomes.py

@@ -0,0 +1,174 @@
+"""Replay R2 tests — outcome fetching and calibration scoring."""
+import asyncio
+import math
+
+import pytest
+
+from bot.data.polymarket import MarketResolution
+from bot.outcomes import (
+    LOGLOSS_EPS,
+    compute_calibration,
+    fetch_outcomes,
+    print_report,
+)
+from datetime import datetime, timezone
+
+
+class FakePoly:
+    """get_market_resolution stand-in driven by a dict of canned responses."""
+
+    def __init__(self, responses: dict):
+        self.responses = responses
+        self.calls: list[str] = []
+
+    async def get_market_resolution(self, market_id: str):
+        self.calls.append(market_id)
+        return self.responses.get(market_id)
+
+
+RESOLVED_AT = datetime(2026, 7, 1, 12, 0, tzinfo=timezone.utc)
+
+
+def _row(market_id="m1", category="politics", est=0.6, prior=0.5, outcome=1.0):
+    return {
+        "market_id": market_id,
+        "category": category,
+        "estimated_prob": est,
+        "prior_prob": prior,
+        "outcome": outcome,
+    }
+
+
+# ── fetch_outcomes ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+def test_fetch_keeps_only_definitive_resolutions():
+    poly = FakePoly({
+        "yes":      MarketResolution(resolved=True, resolution=1.0,
+                                     resolved_at=RESOLVED_AT),
+        "no":       MarketResolution(resolved=True, resolution=0.0,
+                                     resolved_at=None),
+        "open":     MarketResolution(resolved=False),
+        "disputed": MarketResolution(resolved=False),
+        "apierror": None,  # get_market_resolution returns None on HTTP errors
+    })
+    out = asyncio.run(
+        fetch_outcomes(poly, ["yes", "no", "open", "disputed", "apierror"])
+    )
+    assert poly.calls == ["yes", "no", "open", "disputed", "apierror"]
+    assert out == [
+        {"market_id": "yes", "outcome": 1.0, "resolved_at": RESOLVED_AT},
+        {"market_id": "no", "outcome": 0.0, "resolved_at": None},
+    ]
+
+
+def test_fetch_empty_list_is_noop():
+    poly = FakePoly({})
+    assert asyncio.run(fetch_outcomes(poly, [])) == []
+    assert poly.calls == []
+
+
+# ── compute_calibration ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+def test_no_rows_returns_none():
+    assert compute_calibration([]) is None
+
+
+def test_single_row_known_values():
+    m = compute_calibration([_row(est=0.8, prior=0.6, outcome=1.0)])
+    assert m["n_evaluations"] == 1
+    assert m["n_markets"] == 1
+    assert m["brier_model"] == pytest.approx((0.8 - 1.0) ** 2)
+    assert m["brier_prior"] == pytest.approx((0.6 - 1.0) ** 2)
+    assert m["logloss_model"] == pytest.approx(-math.log(0.8))
+    assert m["logloss_prior"] == pytest.approx(-math.log(0.6))
+    # one market: macro == micro
+    assert m["brier_model_macro"] == pytest.approx(m["brier_model"])
+    assert m["brier_prior_macro"] == pytest.approx(m["brier_prior"])
+
+
+def test_logloss_no_outcome_branch():
+    m = compute_calibration([_row(est=0.2, prior=0.7, outcome=0.0)])
+    assert m["logloss_model"] == pytest.approx(-math.log(0.8))
+    assert m["logloss_prior"] == pytest.approx(-math.log(0.3))
+
+
+def test_logloss_clipping_keeps_hard_miss_finite():
+    # A hard 1.0 estimate on a NO outcome must not produce inf.
+    m = compute_calibration([_row(est=1.0, prior=0.5, outcome=0.0)])
+    assert math.isfinite(m["logloss_model"])
+    assert m["logloss_model"] == pytest.approx(-math.log(LOGLOSS_EPS))
+
+
+def test_micro_weights_evaluations_macro_weights_markets():
+    # Market a: 3 evaluations, model error 0.1; market b: 1 evaluation, error 0.5.
+    rows = [
+        _row(market_id="a", est=0.9, prior=0.8, outcome=1.0),
+        _row(market_id="a", est=0.9, prior=0.8, outcome=1.0),
+        _row(market_id="a", est=0.9, prior=0.8, outcome=1.0),
+        _row(market_id="b", est=0.5, prior=0.6, outcome=1.0),
+    ]
+    m = compute_calibration(rows)
+    assert m["n_evaluations"] == 4
+    assert m["n_markets"] == 2
+    # micro: (3*0.01 + 0.25) / 4 ; macro: (0.01 + 0.25) / 2
+    assert m["brier_model"] == pytest.approx((3 * 0.01 + 0.25) / 4)
+    assert m["brier_model_macro"] == pytest.approx((0.01 + 0.25) / 2)
+    assert m["brier_prior"] == pytest.approx((3 * 0.04 + 0.16) / 4)
+    assert m["brier_prior_macro"] == pytest.approx((0.04 + 0.16) / 2)
+
+
+def test_model_beating_market_gives_negative_delta():
+    # est closer to the outcome than the price on every row
+    rows = [
+        _row(market_id="a", est=0.8, prior=0.6, outcome=1.0),
+        _row(market_id="b", est=0.3, prior=0.45, outcome=0.0),
+    ]
+    m = compute_calibration(rows)
+    assert m["brier_model"] < m["brier_prior"]
+    assert m["logloss_model"] < m["logloss_prior"]
+
+
+def test_per_category_grouping_and_unknown():
+    rows = [
+        _row(market_id="a", category="politics", est=0.8, prior=0.6, outcome=1.0),
+        _row(market_id="b", category="politics", est=0.7, prior=0.6, outcome=1.0),
+        _row(market_id="c", category=None, est=0.4, prior=0.5, outcome=0.0),
+    ]
+    m = compute_calibration(rows)
+    assert set(m["per_category"]) == {"politics", "unknown"}
+    pol = m["per_category"]["politics"]
+    assert pol["n"] == 2 and pol["markets"] == 2
+    assert pol["brier_model"] == pytest.approx((0.04 + 0.09) / 2)
+    unk = m["per_category"]["unknown"]
+    assert unk["n"] == 1 and unk["markets"] == 1
+    assert unk["brier_model"] == pytest.approx(0.16)
+
+
+def test_repeated_market_counts_once_in_markets():
+    rows = [
+        _row(market_id="a", est=0.8, prior=0.6, outcome=1.0),
+        _row(market_id="a", est=0.7, prior=0.55, outcome=1.0),
+    ]
+    m = compute_calibration(rows)
+    assert m["n_markets"] == 1
+    assert m["per_category"]["politics"]["markets"] == 1
+
+
+# ── print_report ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+def test_report_handles_no_metrics(capsys):
+    print_report(None, "R0 archive")
+    assert "no scorable rows yet" in capsys.readouterr().out
+
+
+def test_report_prints_all_metric_lines(capsys):
+    m = compute_calibration([
+        _row(market_id="a", est=0.8, prior=0.6, outcome=1.0),
+        _row(market_id="b", category=None, est=0.4, prior=0.5, outcome=0.0),
+    ])
+    print_report(m, "R0 archive")
+    out = capsys.readouterr().out
+    assert "2 evaluations, 2 markets" in out
+    for label in ("Brier micro", "Brier macro", "logloss micro",
+                  "politics", "unknown"):
+        assert label in out