4 Commits

Include renames

Author	SHA1	Message	Date
chemavxandClaude Fable 5	5aa54eb423	fix(resolution): cast $3 explicitly in close_paper_position and persist before mutating portfolio ... Cycle-10 resolution check found market 562186 resolved (Paxton YES) but the close failed with asyncpg AmbiguousParameterError: Postgres cannot infer the type of a bare '$3 IS NOT NULL' in the close_pnl CASE. Reproduced via PREPARE in the postgres pod; fixed by casting every $3 use to double precision. The failed DB write also left memory/DB diverged: close_position() popped the position and credited cash before persisting, so the retry at cycle 20 skipped the market (pnl=n/a) while the DB row stayed open. Now the DB write happens first and memory mutates only on success; check_resolutions() also isolates per-market close failures so one error doesn't abort the cycle. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>	2026-06-11 14:15:05 +00:00
chemavxandClaude Fable 5	e137116e7f	feat(resolution): add automatic market resolution detector with conservative payout validation ... - PolymarketClient.get_market_resolution(): query Gamma API by market id; resolved only when closed AND uma status final AND outcome prices binary (never settle on disputed/ambiguous outcomes) - bot/main.py: check_resolutions() runs every 10 cycles (~10 min) in paper mode, settles open positions via PaperExecutor.close_position() - close_reason now persisted as 'resolved' (resolution has its own column) - tests/test_resolution_detector.py: 10 tests covering API parsing shapes and the BUY_NO settlement flow; 27/27 suite green Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>	2026-06-11 13:48:41 +00:00
chemavxandClaude Fable 5	340c8523cf	fix(critical): remove dead manifold.get_probability() from legacy scan and fix BUY_NO payout calculation ... - Legacy scan called ManifoldClient.get_probability(), removed in the v3 matcher migration, causing AttributeError when positions had changed family keys. The block used Manifold to escalate positions to CLOSE_RECOMMENDED (inversion detection) — a trading decision forbidden under MANIFOLD_SIGNAL_ENABLED=false — so the dependency is removed entirely; the scan keeps family re-keying and sibling-conflict logic. - PaperExecutor.close_position() computed cash += position_cost * resolution, ignoring direction: a winning BUY_NO (resolution=0.0) paid out $0 and reported a loss. Now settles per trade: BUY_YES: payout = shares * resolution BUY_NO: payout = shares * (1 - resolution) with pnl = payout - net_cost; Telegram win/loss keys off pnl > 0. Adds read-only Database.get_open_trades_for_market(). - tests/test_paper_close.py covers the 4 deterministic payout cases; tests/conftest.py shims datetime.UTC for local Python 3.10 (prod is 3.11). Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>	2026-06-11 12:23:44 +00:00
chemavxandClaude Opus 4.8	34fd1f8719	feat(manifold): add outcome compatibility guard and conditional market rejection ... Reject false-positive matches where Jaccard overlap is high but the outcome is not equivalent (e.g. Poly nomination vs Manifold "If X is nominee, will he win"). - _is_conditional(): detect conditional Manifold markets (If/Conditional on/ Assuming/Given that prefixes + mid-sentence " if ...," clauses) -> reject with reason "conditional_market". - _classify_outcome(): classify into nomination|primary_win|general_win| conditional|other; reject when poly/mfld types differ or either is conditional -> reason "outcome_mismatch: poly=... manifold=...". - Persist poly_outcome_type/mfld_outcome_type on ManifoldMatchResult, in manifold_match_audit (CREATE + idempotent ALTER), save_manifold_audit() and the bayesian call site. - Tests covering classification, conditional detection and the Graham Platner regression (now rejected); valid nomination<->nomination still accepted. Untouched: _MATCH_THRESHOLD (0.40), MANIFOLD_LOGODDS_WEIGHT, edge thresholds, exposure, trading logic. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>	2026-05-31 15:28:26 +00:00