feat(manifold): add outcome compatibility guard and conditional market rejection

Reject false-positive matches where Jaccard overlap is high but the outcome is
not equivalent (e.g. Poly nomination vs Manifold "If X is nominee, will he win").

- _is_conditional(): detect conditional Manifold markets (If/Conditional on/
  Assuming/Given that prefixes + mid-sentence " if ...," clauses) -> reject with
  reason "conditional_market".
- _classify_outcome(): classify into nomination|primary_win|general_win|
  conditional|other; reject when poly/mfld types differ or either is conditional
  -> reason "outcome_mismatch: poly=... manifold=...".
- Persist poly_outcome_type/mfld_outcome_type on ManifoldMatchResult, in
  manifold_match_audit (CREATE + idempotent ALTER), save_manifold_audit() and
  the bayesian call site.
- Tests covering classification, conditional detection and the Graham Platner
  regression (now rejected); valid nomination<->nomination still accepted.

Untouched: _MATCH_THRESHOLD (0.40), MANIFOLD_LOGODDS_WEIGHT, edge thresholds,
exposure, trading logic.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

tests/test_manifold_outcome.py

@@ -0,0 +1,152 @@
+"""
+Tests for the Manifold outcome-compatibility guard.
+
+Regression: a Polymarket *nomination* question must not match a Manifold
+*conditional* question ("If X is the nominee, will he win?") even at Jaccard=1.0.
+"""
+import asyncio
+
+import pytest
+
+from bot.data.manifold import (
+    ManifoldClient,
+    _classify_outcome,
+    _is_conditional,
+)
+
+
+# ── _is_conditional ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+def test_is_conditional_prefixes():
+    assert _is_conditional("If Graham Platner is the nominee, will he win?")
+    assert _is_conditional("Conditional on a recession, will rates fall?")
+    assert _is_conditional("Assuming Trump runs, will he win?")
+    assert _is_conditional("Given that X happens, will Y?")
+
+
+def test_is_conditional_midsentence_clause():
+    assert _is_conditional("Will Biden, if he is nominated, win the election?")
+
+
+def test_is_not_conditional():
+    assert not _is_conditional("Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee?")
+    assert not _is_conditional("Will the GOP win the Senate?")
+    # "if" without a closing comma clause is not flagged
+    assert not _is_conditional("What happens if everything goes right")
+
+
+# ── _classify_outcome ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+def test_classify_nomination():
+    assert _classify_outcome("Will X be the Democratic nominee for Senate?") == "nomination"
+    assert _classify_outcome("Will X be nominated?") == "nomination"
+    # "primary nominee" → nomination (checked before primary)
+    assert _classify_outcome("Will X be the primary nominee?") == "nomination"
+
+
+def test_classify_primary_win():
+    assert _classify_outcome("Will X win the primary?") == "primary_win"
+    assert _classify_outcome("Will X advance in the first round?") == "primary_win"
+
+
+def test_classify_general_win():
+    assert _classify_outcome("Will X win the election?") == "general_win"
+    assert _classify_outcome("Will X win the seat?") == "general_win"
+    assert _classify_outcome("Will X win the general election?") == "general_win"
+
+
+def test_classify_conditional():
+    assert _classify_outcome("If X is the nominee, will he win?") == "conditional"
+    assert _classify_outcome("Assuming a runoff, who wins?") == "conditional"
+
+
+def test_classify_other():
+    assert _classify_outcome("Will it rain tomorrow?") == "other"
+
+
+# ── End-to-end get_match with a stubbed Manifold API ────────────────────────────
+class _StubResponse:
+    def __init__(self, payload):
+        self._payload = payload
+
+    def raise_for_status(self):
+        pass
+
+    def json(self):
+        return self._payload
+
+
+class _StubHTTP:
+    def __init__(self, payload):
+        self._payload = payload
+
+    async def get(self, *args, **kwargs):
+        return _StubResponse(self._payload)
+
+    async def aclose(self):
+        pass
+
+
+async def _match(poly, mfld_market):
+    client = ManifoldClient()
+    client._client = _StubHTTP([mfld_market])
+    try:
+        return await client.get_match(poly)
+    finally:
+        await client.close()
+
+
+def test_graham_platner_conditional_rejected():
+    """Poly nomination vs Manifold conditional → rejected (Task 4.1)."""
+    poly = ("Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate "
+            "in Maine in 2026?")
+    mfld_market = {
+        "outcomeType": "BINARY",
+        "probability": 0.55,
+        "question": ("If Graham Platner is the Democratic nominee for Senate "
+                     "in Maine, will he win the general election?"),
+        "id": "abc123",
+        "slug": "graham-platner-win",
+        "creatorUsername": "someone",
+    }
+    result = asyncio.run(_match(poly, mfld_market))
+
+    assert result.status == "rejected"
+    assert result.match_reason is not None
+    assert ("conditional" in result.match_reason
+            or "outcome_mismatch" in result.match_reason)
+    # outcome types are classified and available for persistence
+    assert result.poly_outcome_type == "nomination"
+    assert result.mfld_outcome_type == "conditional"
+
+
+def test_outcome_mismatch_nomination_vs_general_rejected():
+    """Poly nomination vs Manifold general_win (non-conditional) → rejected."""
+    poly = "Will Jane Doe be the Republican nominee for Governor?"
+    mfld_market = {
+        "outcomeType": "BINARY",
+        "probability": 0.4,
+        "question": "Will Jane Doe win the election for Governor?",
+        "id": "x", "slug": "jane-doe", "creatorUsername": "u",
+    }
+    result = asyncio.run(_match(poly, mfld_market))
+
+    assert result.status == "rejected"
+    assert "outcome_mismatch" in result.match_reason
+    assert result.poly_outcome_type == "nomination"
+    assert result.mfld_outcome_type == "general_win"
+
+
+def test_matching_nomination_accepted():
+    """Poly nomination vs Manifold nomination (same outcome) → accepted."""
+    poly = "Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?"
+    mfld_market = {
+        "outcomeType": "BINARY",
+        "probability": 0.62,
+        "question": "Will Graham Platner be the Democratic Senate nominee in Maine?",
+        "id": "ok", "slug": "platner-nominee", "creatorUsername": "u",
+    }
+    result = asyncio.run(_match(poly, mfld_market))
+
+    assert result.status == "accepted"
+    assert result.poly_outcome_type == "nomination"
+    assert result.mfld_outcome_type == "nomination"
+    assert result.prob_final == pytest.approx(0.62)