Phase 3 excluded momentum and Fear & Greed from politics/tech/events
markets; Phase 4 fixed ticker detection. But the BTC-dominance signal was
still applied to non-price markets that legitimately mention a ticker
('Will the ETH ETF be approved?'), despite having no demonstrated causality
for non-price outcomes. Reuse the existing is_non_price gate so the
contribution stays 0.0 -> feat_btc_dom_lo = 0.0 for those markets.
Price-market behavior unchanged: ETH/altcoin/general-crypto markets keep
the +/-0.03 dominance adjustment.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Substring matching over question_lower flagged non-crypto markets as crypto:
'dissolved' matched 'sol', 'Canada' matched 'ada', 'Seth' matched 'eth'.
Those false flags armed the BTC-dominance signal (btc_dom_lo=+0.06 observed
on politics markets in production).
Short tickers (btc, eth, sol, xrp, doge, ltc, bnb, ada, avax) now go through
has_token(), which requires non-alphanumeric boundaries so 'ETH', '$ETH' and
'ETH/USD' still match. Long unambiguous names (bitcoin, ethereum, solana,
cardano, ...) remain substring checks.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
For politics/tech/events markets there is no above/below price notion, so
is_price_above defaulted to False (or flipped on accidental wording like
"reach") and sign-inverted the macro adjustments: BTC +5% or high Fear&Greed
subtracted probability from YES on "Will X win the election?" markets.
Skip both signals entirely for non-price markets: contributions stay 0.0,
feat_mom_lo / feat_fg_lo persist as 0.0. Price markets (BTC/ETH/crypto)
keep the exact current behavior, including the below-market sign flip.
Removes the now-dead BTC(sentiment) momentum branch and its 0.5 attenuator.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Cycle-10 resolution check found market 562186 resolved (Paxton YES) but the
close failed with asyncpg AmbiguousParameterError: Postgres cannot infer the
type of a bare '$3 IS NOT NULL' in the close_pnl CASE. Reproduced via PREPARE
in the postgres pod; fixed by casting every $3 use to double precision.
The failed DB write also left memory/DB diverged: close_position() popped the
position and credited cash before persisting, so the retry at cycle 20 skipped
the market (pnl=n/a) while the DB row stayed open. Now the DB write happens
first and memory mutates only on success; check_resolutions() also isolates
per-market close failures so one error doesn't abort the cycle.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- PolymarketClient.get_market_resolution(): query Gamma API by market id;
resolved only when closed AND uma status final AND outcome prices binary
(never settle on disputed/ambiguous outcomes)
- bot/main.py: check_resolutions() runs every 10 cycles (~10 min) in paper
mode, settles open positions via PaperExecutor.close_position()
- close_reason now persisted as 'resolved' (resolution has its own column)
- tests/test_resolution_detector.py: 10 tests covering API parsing shapes
and the BUY_NO settlement flow; 27/27 suite green
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Legacy scan called ManifoldClient.get_probability(), removed in the v3
matcher migration, causing AttributeError when positions had changed
family keys. The block used Manifold to escalate positions to
CLOSE_RECOMMENDED (inversion detection) — a trading decision forbidden
under MANIFOLD_SIGNAL_ENABLED=false — so the dependency is removed
entirely; the scan keeps family re-keying and sibling-conflict logic.
- PaperExecutor.close_position() computed cash += position_cost * resolution,
ignoring direction: a winning BUY_NO (resolution=0.0) paid out $0 and
reported a loss. Now settles per trade:
BUY_YES: payout = shares * resolution
BUY_NO: payout = shares * (1 - resolution)
with pnl = payout - net_cost; Telegram win/loss keys off pnl > 0.
Adds read-only Database.get_open_trades_for_market().
- tests/test_paper_close.py covers the 4 deterministic payout cases;
tests/conftest.py shims datetime.UTC for local Python 3.10 (prod is 3.11).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Reject false-positive matches where Jaccard overlap is high but the outcome is
not equivalent (e.g. Poly nomination vs Manifold "If X is nominee, will he win").
- _is_conditional(): detect conditional Manifold markets (If/Conditional on/
Assuming/Given that prefixes + mid-sentence " if ...," clauses) -> reject with
reason "conditional_market".
- _classify_outcome(): classify into nomination|primary_win|general_win|
conditional|other; reject when poly/mfld types differ or either is conditional
-> reason "outcome_mismatch: poly=... manifold=...".
- Persist poly_outcome_type/mfld_outcome_type on ManifoldMatchResult, in
manifold_match_audit (CREATE + idempotent ALTER), save_manifold_audit() and
the bayesian call site.
- Tests covering classification, conditional detection and the Graham Platner
regression (now rejected); valid nomination<->nomination still accepted.
Untouched: _MATCH_THRESHOLD (0.40), MANIFOLD_LOGODDS_WEIGHT, edge thresholds,
exposure, trading logic.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
