2 Commits

Include renames

Author	SHA1	Message	Date
chemavxandClaude Fable 5	340c8523cf	fix(critical): remove dead manifold.get_probability() from legacy scan and fix BUY_NO payout calculation ... - Legacy scan called ManifoldClient.get_probability(), removed in the v3 matcher migration, causing AttributeError when positions had changed family keys. The block used Manifold to escalate positions to CLOSE_RECOMMENDED (inversion detection) — a trading decision forbidden under MANIFOLD_SIGNAL_ENABLED=false — so the dependency is removed entirely; the scan keeps family re-keying and sibling-conflict logic. - PaperExecutor.close_position() computed cash += position_cost * resolution, ignoring direction: a winning BUY_NO (resolution=0.0) paid out $0 and reported a loss. Now settles per trade: BUY_YES: payout = shares * resolution BUY_NO: payout = shares * (1 - resolution) with pnl = payout - net_cost; Telegram win/loss keys off pnl > 0. Adds read-only Database.get_open_trades_for_market(). - tests/test_paper_close.py covers the 4 deterministic payout cases; tests/conftest.py shims datetime.UTC for local Python 3.10 (prod is 3.11). Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>	2026-06-11 12:23:44 +00:00
chemavxandClaude Opus 4.8	34fd1f8719	feat(manifold): add outcome compatibility guard and conditional market rejection ... Reject false-positive matches where Jaccard overlap is high but the outcome is not equivalent (e.g. Poly nomination vs Manifold "If X is nominee, will he win"). - _is_conditional(): detect conditional Manifold markets (If/Conditional on/ Assuming/Given that prefixes + mid-sentence " if ...," clauses) -> reject with reason "conditional_market". - _classify_outcome(): classify into nomination|primary_win|general_win| conditional|other; reject when poly/mfld types differ or either is conditional -> reason "outcome_mismatch: poly=... manifold=...". - Persist poly_outcome_type/mfld_outcome_type on ManifoldMatchResult, in manifold_match_audit (CREATE + idempotent ALTER), save_manifold_audit() and the bayesian call site. - Tests covering classification, conditional detection and the Graham Platner regression (now rejected); valid nomination<->nomination still accepted. Untouched: _MATCH_THRESHOLD (0.40), MANIFOLD_LOGODDS_WEIGHT, edge thresholds, exposure, trading logic. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>	2026-05-31 15:28:26 +00:00