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chemavxandClaude Fable 5 0ac48ba7f8 feat(replay): R1 replay core — clock injection + replay of archived cycles ...

Re-executes BayesianStrategy.evaluate() over the R0 archive and stores
results in replay_runs/replay_decisions, tagged with git sha + a hash of
the strategy constants (same hash vs archive = determinism check,
different hash = counterfactual run).

- bayesian.py: optional as_of param on evaluate()/_days_to_resolution()
  (clock injection; default None = wall clock, prod behavior unchanged —
  the only touch to frozen code, purely additive)
- bot/replay.py: replay engine + CLI (python -m bot.replay --from --to);
  ReplayNews feeds archived sentiment back (GNews never called, per-cycle
  budget bypassed — archived sentiment already encodes it); manifold/db
  not wired (observational-only in prod); recorded-vs-replayed compare
  at 1e-9 tolerance
- schema.sql: replay_runs + replay_decisions (+ indexes), idempotent
- db.py: 6 replay accessors/writers
- tests: 19 new round-trip fidelity tests (104 total green)

Validated against a real prod cycle (2026-07-02T14:03:15Z, 46 markets,
4 skip paths incl. the Georgia confidence record): 46/46 matched,
max float delta 0.0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

2026-07-02 14:05:25 +00:00

..

__init__.py

feat: initial commit — polymarket-bot source + CI/CD pipeline

2026-04-13 16:05:45 +00:00

bayesian.py

feat(replay): R1 replay core — clock injection + replay of archived cycles

2026-07-02 14:05:25 +00:00