polymarket-bot

chemavx/polymarket-bot

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chemavx 0cdb0758c4

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feat(strategy): Manifold cross-market signal + per-feature contribution logging

Signal 5: ManifoldClient queries Manifold Markets API for a matching binary
market by keyword overlap (threshold 0.25) and applies a log-odds adjustment
proportional to the divergence from the Polymarket prior.

  manifold_log_adj = (log_odds(manifold_prob) - log_odds(prior)) × 0.6

A 30pp divergence (Manifold 0.75 vs Poly 0.45) produces edge_gross ≈ 0.19,
clearing the politics far-horizon regime_min=0.12 after costs. Confidence
boosted +0.08 when Manifold match found.

Per-feature observability: every SKIP_EDGE_NET and TRADE log line now includes
  fg=±X.XXX  mom=±X.XXX  mfld=±X.XXXX  news=±X.XXXX
so the contribution of each signal to edge is auditable per market.

Files: bot/data/manifold.py (new), bot/strategy/bayesian.py, bot/main.py

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

2026-04-17 10:07:47 +00:00

__init__.py

feat: initial commit — polymarket-bot source + CI/CD pipeline

2026-04-13 16:05:45 +00:00

db.py

feat(bot): 5-phase strategy upgrade — edge neto, families, GNews priority, regimes

2026-04-16 15:34:46 +00:00

external.py

feat: initial commit — polymarket-bot source + CI/CD pipeline

2026-04-13 16:05:45 +00:00

manifold.py

feat(strategy): Manifold cross-market signal + per-feature contribution logging