polymarket-bot/tests/test_bayesian_btc_dom_gate.py

"""
Tests for FASE 5 — BTC-dominance signal must not apply to non-price markets.

FASE 3 gated momentum and Fear & Greed behind is_non_price (politics / tech /
events); FASE 4 fixed ticker detection so non-crypto questions no longer flag
crypto assets by accident.  But a non-price market that LEGITIMATELY mentions
a ticker ("Will the ETH ETF be approved?") still armed the BTC-dominance
signal, which has no demonstrated causality for non-price outcomes.  FASE 5
applies the same is_non_price gate to that signal.

Note: the dominance signal only fires for is_eth / is_altcoin /
is_general_crypto markets — a pure-BTC question never receives it, so the
pro-Bitcoin test below is a regression guard rather than a gate exercise;
the ETH-ETF test is the one that fails without the gate.

Same caplog technique as test_bayesian_asset_detection.py: btc_dom_lo is
parsed from the structured audit log, with btc_dominance=65 (>55) so the
signal fires whenever it is allowed to.
"""
import asyncio
import logging
import re

import pytest

from bot.data.external import ExternalSignals
from bot.data.polymarket import Market
from bot.strategy.bayesian import BayesianStrategy

BTC_DOM_RE = re.compile(r"btc_dom_lo=([+-]\d+\.\d+)")


def _make_market(question: str, category: str) -> Market:
    return Market(
        id="mkt-test-1",
        condition_id="cond-test-1",
        question=question,
        yes_token_id="yes-tok",
        no_token_id="no-tok",
        yes_price=0.50,
        no_price=0.50,
        volume_24h=50_000.0,
        end_date="2026-07-15T00:00:00Z",
        active=True,
        category=category,
    )


def _make_signals() -> ExternalSignals:
    # btc_dominance=65 (>55) arms the dominance signal wherever it is allowed.
    # Momentum kept below the 2% threshold so price-market tests isolate the
    # dominance contribution.
    return ExternalSignals(
        btc_price=100_000.0,
        btc_change_24h=1.0,
        eth_price=4_000.0,
        eth_change_24h=1.0,
        btc_dominance=65.0,
        fear_greed_index=50,
        fear_greed_label="neutral",
        total_market_cap_change=1.0,
        valid=True,
    )


def _evaluate(question: str, category: str, caplog) -> tuple[float, str]:
    """Run evaluate() and return (btc_dom_lo, full_log) from the audit log."""
    strategy = BayesianStrategy(news=None, manifold=None, db=None)
    market = _make_market(question, category)
    with caplog.at_level(logging.INFO, logger="bot.strategy.bayesian"):
        asyncio.run(
            strategy.evaluate(market, _make_signals(), occupied_families=set())
        )
    full_log = "\n".join(r.getMessage() for r in caplog.records)
    for record in caplog.records:
        m = BTC_DOM_RE.search(record.getMessage())
        if m:
            return float(m.group(1)), full_log
    pytest.fail(
        "No SKIP_EDGE_NET/TRADE log line with btc_dom_lo found; "
        f"got: {[r.getMessage() for r in caplog.records]}"
    )


# ── Non-price markets: gate must zero the signal ─────────────────────────────

def test_politics_market_mentioning_eth_gets_no_btc_dom(caplog):
    """Legitimate ETH mention in a politics market → btc_dom_lo == 0.0."""
    btc_dom_lo, full_log = _evaluate(
        "Will the ETH ETF be approved?", "politics", caplog
    )
    assert btc_dom_lo == 0.0
    assert "BTC dom" not in full_log

def test_politics_market_mentioning_bitcoin_gets_no_btc_dom(caplog):
    """Legitimate Bitcoin mention in a politics market → btc_dom_lo == 0.0."""
    btc_dom_lo, full_log = _evaluate(
        "Will a pro-Bitcoin candidate win the election?", "politics", caplog
    )
    assert btc_dom_lo == 0.0
    assert "BTC dom" not in full_log

def test_tech_and_events_markets_get_no_btc_dom(caplog):
    for category in ("tech", "events"):
        caplog.clear()
        btc_dom_lo, full_log = _evaluate(
            "Will the ETH foundation launch the product?", category, caplog
        )
        assert btc_dom_lo == 0.0, f"BTC dominance applied to {category} market"
        assert "BTC dom" not in full_log


# ── Price markets: current behavior preserved ───────────────────────────────

def test_eth_price_market_keeps_btc_dom(caplog):
    """ETH price market with dominance 65 → signal fires as before."""
    btc_dom_lo, full_log = _evaluate(
        "Will ETH be above $5000?", "crypto/finance", caplog
    )
    # 'above' → is_price_above, dominance 65 > 55 → -0.03 → -0.06 log-odds
    assert btc_dom_lo == pytest.approx(-0.06, abs=1e-4)
    assert "BTC dom: 65.0% (high → alt pressure)" in full_log

def test_altcoin_price_market_keeps_btc_dom(caplog):
    """SOL price market with dominance 65 → signal fires as before."""
    btc_dom_lo, full_log = _evaluate(
        "Will SOL reach $200?", "crypto/finance", caplog
    )
    assert btc_dom_lo == pytest.approx(-0.06, abs=1e-4)
    assert "BTC dom: 65.0% (high → alt pressure)" in full_log