chemavxandClaude Fable 5
124b6d8558
Scores every archived estimate against reality — the sample multiplier the phase plan calls for: Brier/log-loss of estimated_prob benchmarked against the market price (prior_prob) on the same rows, over ALL evaluations with a resolved outcome, not just executed trades. - schema.sql: market_outcomes (one row per resolved market; outcome = final YES price 1.0/0.0, UMA-final only) - bot/outcomes.py: CLI (python -m bot.outcomes) with two phases — fetch resolutions for archived markets via the existing get_market_resolution() (open/disputed/ambiguous markets simply retry next invocation; no data-loss urgency, Gamma reports past resolutions at any time), then compute calibration: Brier micro (per evaluation) / macro (per market — the honest sample size given ~1 eval/min autocorrelation), log-loss with 1e-9 clipping, per-category breakdown. --run-id scores a replay run's re-estimates instead of the archive (counterfactual calibration). - db.py: 4 accessors (pending markets, outcome upsert, coverage, calibration rows for archive or run) - tests: 12 new (116 total green); compute_calibration is a pure function driven by literals No prod behavior change: the bot never imports bot.outcomes; the only shared surface is the idempotent schema migration (dry-run BEGIN/ROLLBACK clean against prod). Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
polymarket-bot
Bot de paper-trading para Polymarket con estrategia bayesiana, API FastAPI y dashboard React. Corre en k3s vía GitOps (Gitea Actions → registry → ArgoCD).
Componentes
| Componente | Código | Imagen | CMD |
|---|---|---|---|
| bot | bot/ |
polymarket-bot |
python3 -m bot.main |
| api | api/ (+ bot/ como librería) |
polymarket-bot-api |
uvicorn api.main:app |
| dashboard | dashboard/ |
polymarket-bot-dashboard |
nginx estático |
Dashboard: https://polymarket.chemavx.xyz
CI/CD
.gitea/workflows/ci.yml construye solo las imágenes cuyos ficheros
cambiaron en el push (diff contra github.event.before):
bot/,api/,requirements.txt→ bot + api (ambas imágenes copian las mismas fuentes Python; solo cambia el CMD)Dockerfile→ bot ·Dockerfile.api→ api ·dashboard/→ dashboard.gitea/workflows/ci.yml, primer push o force-push → todas (fallback seguro)tests/, docs → ninguna (la CI no construye ni despliega nada)
Las imágenes se tagean con ${GITHUB_SHA::8}; el CI actualiza solo los
deployments reconstruidos en k8s-manifests/polymarket-bot/ y ArgoCD
sincroniza vía webhook en segundos.
Tests
python3 -m pytest tests/ -q