chemavxandClaude Fable 5
7f84bc3ec7
Post-mortem NVIDIA 631181: one uncorroborated high-weight signal (legacy Manifold 0.13 at weight 0.6) flipped a 0.845 market to 0.431 and lost. With Manifold observational-only and macro signals gated behind is_non_price, GNews (weight 1.5) is the only live signal able to move politics markets 20-30 pp against the order-book consensus. This adds a catastrophic fuse, not a fine calibration: - apply_news_guardrail(): when |news_lo| >= NEWS_MATERIAL_LOGODDS_THRESHOLD (0.10) and every other signal (fg, mom, btc_dom, mfld) is below it, clamp the posterior to prior ± MAX_NEWS_ONLY_PROB_SHIFT (0.25). Any corroborating material signal disables the clamp. Config via env (NEWS_GUARDRAIL_ENABLED=true by default). - edge_gross/edge_net computed from the clamped posterior; raw_final_prob preserved in reasoning (persisted via trades.reasoning — no schema migration) and in the NEWS_MATERIAL log line. - guardrail_changed_trade_decision: raw edge crossed the regime gate but the clamped edge no longer does (fuse prevented a trade). Note: with the default 0.25 band the clamped edge_net is 0.21, above every regime minimum, so the flag only fires with a tighter configured band. - Observability gated on materiality: NEWS_MATERIAL per-market line and a compact NEWS SUMMARY cycle line, only when with_news > 0 — no flood from the ~145 news-less markets per cycle. - 9 deterministic tests (extreme clamp, in-band passthrough, corroboration, inclusive threshold, disabled, changed_decision). No changes to NEWS_LOGODDS_WEIGHT, Manifold flags, edge thresholds, sizing, payout, resolution, or historical trades. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
polymarket-bot
Bot de paper-trading para Polymarket con estrategia bayesiana, API FastAPI y dashboard React. Corre en k3s vía GitOps (Gitea Actions → registry → ArgoCD).
Componentes
| Componente | Código | Imagen | CMD |
|---|---|---|---|
| bot | bot/ |
polymarket-bot |
python3 -m bot.main |
| api | api/ (+ bot/ como librería) |
polymarket-bot-api |
uvicorn api.main:app |
| dashboard | dashboard/ |
polymarket-bot-dashboard |
nginx estático |
Dashboard: https://polymarket.chemavx.xyz
CI/CD
.gitea/workflows/ci.yml construye solo las imágenes cuyos ficheros
cambiaron en el push (diff contra github.event.before):
bot/,api/,requirements.txt→ bot + api (ambas imágenes copian las mismas fuentes Python; solo cambia el CMD)Dockerfile→ bot ·Dockerfile.api→ api ·dashboard/→ dashboard.gitea/workflows/ci.yml, primer push o force-push → todas (fallback seguro)tests/, docs → ninguna (la CI no construye ni despliega nada)
Las imágenes se tagean con ${GITHUB_SHA::8}; el CI actualiza solo los
deployments reconstruidos en k8s-manifests/polymarket-bot/ y ArgoCD
sincroniza vía webhook en segundos.
Tests
python3 -m pytest tests/ -q