"""Database layer using asyncpg for PostgreSQL.""" import logging import os from typing import Optional import asyncpg log = logging.getLogger(__name__) class Database: def __init__(self) -> None: self._url = os.getenv("DATABASE_URL", "postgresql://bot:bot@localhost:5432/polymarket") self._pool: Optional[asyncpg.Pool] = None async def connect(self) -> None: self._pool = await asyncpg.create_pool(self._url) log.info("Database connected") async def disconnect(self) -> None: if self._pool: await self._pool.close() async def run_migrations(self) -> None: schema_path = os.path.join(os.path.dirname(__file__), "schema.sql") with open(schema_path) as f: schema = f.read() async with self._pool.acquire() as conn: await conn.execute(schema) log.info("Migrations applied") async def save_trade(self, trade) -> None: async with self._pool.acquire() as conn: await conn.execute(""" INSERT INTO trades ( id, market_id, question, direction, size_usdc, entry_price, shares, fee_usdc, net_cost, timestamp, reasoning, paper, edge_gross, edge_net, prior_prob, final_prob, mid_price, spread_estimate, commission, family_key ) VALUES ( $1,$2,$3,$4,$5,$6,$7,$8,$9,$10,$11,$12, $13,$14,$15,$16,$17,$18,$19,$20 ) ON CONFLICT (id) DO NOTHING """, trade.id, trade.market_id, trade.question, trade.direction, trade.size_usdc, trade.entry_price, trade.shares, trade.fee_usdc, trade.net_cost, trade.timestamp, trade.reasoning, trade.paper, # Phase 1 fields trade.edge_gross, trade.edge_net, trade.prior_prob, trade.final_prob, trade.mid_price, trade.spread_estimate, trade.commission, trade.family_key, ) async def save_daily_metrics(self, metrics: dict) -> None: async with self._pool.acquire() as conn: await conn.execute(""" INSERT INTO metrics_daily ( timestamp, total_trades, total_deployed, total_fees, unrealized_pnl_est, realized_pnl, total_pnl, win_rate, avg_edge, sharpe_ratio, calibration_score, paper_mode, open_count, closed_count, resolved_count ) VALUES ($1,$2,$3,$4,$5,$6,$7,$8,$9,$10,$11,$12,$13,$14,$15) """, metrics["timestamp"], metrics["total_trades"], metrics["total_deployed"], metrics["total_fees"], metrics["unrealized_pnl_est"], metrics["realized_pnl"], metrics["total_pnl"], metrics["win_rate"], metrics["avg_edge"], metrics["sharpe_ratio"], metrics["calibration_score"], metrics["paper_mode"], metrics["open_count"], metrics["closed_count"], metrics["resolved_count"], ) async def get_open_positions(self) -> dict[str, float]: """Return {market_id: total_net_cost} for all open (not closed) trades in DB.""" async with self._pool.acquire() as conn: rows = await conn.fetch( "SELECT market_id, SUM(net_cost) AS total " "FROM trades WHERE closed_at IS NULL GROUP BY market_id" ) return {r["market_id"]: float(r["total"]) for r in rows} async def get_open_families(self) -> set[str]: """Return the set of family_key values from all open positions. Used at startup to rebuild occupied_families from DB state so the family-deduplication logic survives pod restarts. """ async with self._pool.acquire() as conn: rows = await conn.fetch( "SELECT DISTINCT family_key FROM trades " "WHERE family_key IS NOT NULL AND closed_at IS NULL" ) return {r["family_key"] for r in rows if r["family_key"]} async def get_open_position_details(self) -> list[dict]: """Return one row per open position with family_key and direction. Used at startup to detect positions that share a family_key (same underlying event), which indicates a contradictory paper trade entered before the general-election family fix was deployed. """ async with self._pool.acquire() as conn: rows = await conn.fetch(""" SELECT DISTINCT ON (market_id) market_id, question, direction, edge_net, family_key, timestamp FROM trades WHERE paper = TRUE AND closed_at IS NULL ORDER BY market_id, timestamp DESC """) return [dict(r) for r in rows] async def close_paper_position( self, market_id: str, reason: str = "", resolution: Optional[float] = None ) -> None: """Mark a paper position as closed. resolution: 1.0 if YES resolved, 0.0 if NO resolved, None if unknown (legacy closes, inversion fixes). When resolution is provided, close_pnl is computed in SQL so it matches the stored entry_price and shares exactly. """ async with self._pool.acquire() as conn: await conn.execute(""" UPDATE trades SET closed_at = NOW(), close_reason = $2, resolution = $3, close_pnl = CASE WHEN $3 IS NOT NULL AND direction = 'BUY_YES' THEN ($3::double precision - entry_price) * shares WHEN $3 IS NOT NULL AND direction = 'BUY_NO' THEN ((1.0 - $3::double precision) - entry_price) * shares ELSE NULL END WHERE market_id = $1 AND closed_at IS NULL """, market_id, reason, resolution) async def update_family_key(self, market_id: str, new_key: str) -> None: """Persist a corrected family_key for all open trades of a market.""" async with self._pool.acquire() as conn: await conn.execute( "UPDATE trades SET family_key = $2 WHERE market_id = $1 AND closed_at IS NULL", market_id, new_key, ) async def get_legacy_incomplete_count(self) -> int: """Return count of open trades with NULL edge_net (legacy data without signal values).""" async with self._pool.acquire() as conn: row = await conn.fetchrow( "SELECT COUNT(*) FROM trades WHERE closed_at IS NULL AND edge_net IS NULL" ) return int(row[0]) async def get_recently_closed_inverted(self, hours: int = 24) -> set[str]: """Return market_ids closed for inversion bug within the last N hours. Used as a reentry guard: prevents re-entering a market that was just closed because the signal direction was inverted. """ async with self._pool.acquire() as conn: rows = await conn.fetch(""" SELECT DISTINCT market_id FROM trades WHERE closed_at > NOW() - ($1 || ' hours')::interval AND close_reason ILIKE '%inversion bug%' """, str(hours)) return {r["market_id"] for r in rows} async def compute_metrics_from_db(self) -> dict: """Compute all trading metrics directly from the trades table. This is the single source of truth for MetricsTracker — no in-memory state required. Safe to call after pod restarts: always reflects the full DB history. Returns a dict with keys: total_trades, open_count, closed_count, resolved_count, total_deployed, total_fees, unrealized_pnl_est — estimated, open trades with edge_net realized_pnl — exact, closed trades with resolution wins_realized — closed trades where close_pnl > 0 calibration_score — Brier-based (1 − MSE), null if resolved < 10 """ async with self._pool.acquire() as conn: row = await conn.fetchrow(""" SELECT COUNT(*) AS total_trades, COUNT(*) FILTER (WHERE closed_at IS NULL) AS open_count, COUNT(*) FILTER (WHERE closed_at IS NOT NULL) AS closed_count, COUNT(*) FILTER (WHERE resolution IS NOT NULL AND final_prob IS NOT NULL) AS resolved_count, COALESCE(SUM(net_cost) FILTER (WHERE closed_at IS NULL), 0) AS total_deployed, COALESCE(SUM(fee_usdc), 0) AS total_fees, -- Estimated unrealized PnL: open trades with known edge. -- Formula: edge_net × net_cost − fee_usdc. -- Trades with NULL edge_net (legacy data) are excluded. COALESCE(SUM(edge_net * net_cost - fee_usdc) FILTER (WHERE closed_at IS NULL AND edge_net IS NOT NULL), 0) AS unrealized_pnl_est, -- Realized PnL: closed trades with a known resolution. -- close_pnl is computed at close time from actual resolution. COALESCE(SUM(close_pnl) FILTER (WHERE closed_at IS NOT NULL AND close_pnl IS NOT NULL), 0) AS realized_pnl, COUNT(*) FILTER (WHERE closed_at IS NOT NULL AND close_pnl IS NOT NULL AND close_pnl > 0) AS wins_realized, -- Calibration (Brier score transformed to higher-is-better): -- 1 − AVG((final_prob − resolution)²) on resolved trades. -- final_prob is the model's estimated YES probability at entry. -- resolution is 1.0 (YES won) or 0.0 (NO won). -- Perfect calibration → 1.0 | Random → ~0.75 | Worst → 0.0 -- Returns NULL if fewer than 10 resolved trades with final_prob. CASE WHEN COUNT(*) FILTER (WHERE resolution IS NOT NULL AND final_prob IS NOT NULL) >= 10 THEN 1.0 - AVG((final_prob - resolution) * (final_prob - resolution)) FILTER (WHERE resolution IS NOT NULL AND final_prob IS NOT NULL) ELSE NULL END AS calibration_score FROM trades """) return dict(row) async def get_recent_trades(self, limit: int = 100, status: Optional[str] = None) -> list[dict]: """Return trades ordered by timestamp DESC. status: None (all) | "open" (closed_at IS NULL) | "closed" (closed_at IS NOT NULL) Each row includes a computed "status" field ("open" or "closed"). """ if status == "open": where = "WHERE closed_at IS NULL" elif status == "closed": where = "WHERE closed_at IS NOT NULL" else: where = "" async with self._pool.acquire() as conn: rows = await conn.fetch( f"SELECT * FROM trades {where} ORDER BY timestamp DESC LIMIT $1", limit ) result = [] for r in rows: d = dict(r) d["status"] = "closed" if d.get("closed_at") else "open" result.append(d) return result async def get_metrics_history(self, days: int = 42) -> list[dict]: async with self._pool.acquire() as conn: rows = await conn.fetch( "SELECT * FROM metrics_daily ORDER BY timestamp DESC LIMIT $1", days ) return [dict(r) for r in rows]