-- Polymarket Bot Database Schema

CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS trades (
    id            TEXT PRIMARY KEY,
    market_id     TEXT NOT NULL,
    question      TEXT NOT NULL,
    direction     TEXT NOT NULL,      -- BUY_YES | BUY_NO
    size_usdc     DOUBLE PRECISION,
    entry_price   DOUBLE PRECISION,
    shares        DOUBLE PRECISION,
    fee_usdc      DOUBLE PRECISION,
    net_cost      DOUBLE PRECISION,
    timestamp     TIMESTAMPTZ NOT NULL,
    reasoning     TEXT,
    paper         BOOLEAN DEFAULT TRUE
);

CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS metrics_daily (
    id                SERIAL PRIMARY KEY,
    timestamp         TIMESTAMPTZ NOT NULL,
    total_trades      INTEGER,
    total_deployed    DOUBLE PRECISION,
    total_fees        DOUBLE PRECISION,
    total_pnl         DOUBLE PRECISION,
    win_rate          DOUBLE PRECISION,
    avg_edge          DOUBLE PRECISION,
    sharpe_ratio      DOUBLE PRECISION,
    calibration_score DOUBLE PRECISION,
    paper_mode        BOOLEAN DEFAULT TRUE
);

CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS markets (
    id            TEXT PRIMARY KEY,
    condition_id  TEXT,
    question      TEXT NOT NULL,
    category      TEXT,
    end_date      TEXT,
    active        BOOLEAN DEFAULT TRUE,
    last_seen     TIMESTAMPTZ DEFAULT NOW()
);

CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS signals (
    id                SERIAL PRIMARY KEY,
    market_id         TEXT NOT NULL,
    timestamp         TIMESTAMPTZ NOT NULL,
    polymarket_price  DOUBLE PRECISION,
    estimated_prob    DOUBLE PRECISION,
    edge              DOUBLE PRECISION,
    confidence        DOUBLE PRECISION,
    direction         TEXT,
    acted_on          BOOLEAN DEFAULT FALSE
);

CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_trades_timestamp ON trades(timestamp DESC);
CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_trades_market ON trades(market_id);
CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_metrics_timestamp ON metrics_daily(timestamp DESC);
CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_signals_timestamp ON signals(timestamp DESC);

-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-- Phase 1 migrations: edge neto real
--
-- spread_estimate and commission are HEURISTICS, not exact Polymarket exchange
-- costs.  spread_estimate ≈ estimated half-spread for medium-liquidity markets.
-- commission = COMMISSION_RATE (0.02) * size_usdc — mirrors Polymarket taker fee.
-- edge_net = edge_gross - spread_estimate - commission/size_usdc
--          = edge_gross - 0.02 - 0.02   (always 0.04 deduction at current rates)
--
-- These are stored per-trade so we can audit whether the model's cost assumptions
-- were met in practice once markets resolve.
-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS edge_gross      DOUBLE PRECISION;
ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS edge_net        DOUBLE PRECISION;
ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS prior_prob      DOUBLE PRECISION;
ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS final_prob      DOUBLE PRECISION;
ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS mid_price       DOUBLE PRECISION;
ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS spread_estimate DOUBLE PRECISION;
ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS commission      DOUBLE PRECISION;
ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS family_key      TEXT;

-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-- Phase 2 / Phase 5 migrations: market families + observability
--
-- Signals table extended so each evaluated market carries its audit trail:
--   skip_reason  — why the market was not traded ("edge_net", "family",
--                  "gnews_priority", "regime", "prior_extreme", etc.)
--   passed_gross — True if edge_gross alone met regime_min_edge
--   passed_net   — True if edge_net met regime_min_edge (the actual gate)
--   family_key   — market family slug (e.g. "texas-republican-2026")
--   regime_min_edge — threshold that applied to this market/category
-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
ALTER TABLE signals ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS edge_gross      DOUBLE PRECISION;
ALTER TABLE signals ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS edge_net        DOUBLE PRECISION;
ALTER TABLE signals ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS family_key      TEXT;
ALTER TABLE signals ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS regime_min_edge DOUBLE PRECISION;
ALTER TABLE signals ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS skip_reason     TEXT;
ALTER TABLE signals ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS passed_gross    BOOLEAN;
ALTER TABLE signals ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS passed_net      BOOLEAN;

CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_signals_market ON signals(market_id);
CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_trades_family  ON trades(family_key);

-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-- Position lifecycle: legacy scan can close erroneous paper positions.
-- closed_at IS NULL  → position is open (all open-position queries filter this).
-- closed_at NOT NULL → position closed; close_reason explains why.
-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS closed_at    TIMESTAMPTZ;
ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS close_reason TEXT;

CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_trades_closed ON trades(closed_at) WHERE closed_at IS NOT NULL;

-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-- Fix 3: market resolution and realized P&L per trade
--
-- resolution: 1.0 if YES resolved, 0.0 if NO resolved, NULL if not yet settled.
-- close_pnl:  realized P&L in USDC at close time — NET of fee (payout − net_cost),
--   the same definition PaperExecutor.close_position() reports in logs/Telegram.
--   BUY_YES: resolution * shares - net_cost
--   BUY_NO:  (1 - resolution) * shares - net_cost
--   NULL if closed without a known resolution (legacy closes, inversion fixes).
-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS close_pnl  DOUBLE PRECISION;
ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS resolution DOUBLE PRECISION;

-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-- Phase 6: per-feature signal attribution — all values in log-odds space
--
-- All four primary features share a common unit (log-odds contribution to
-- the posterior estimate) so they can be compared directly:
--
--   feat_fg_lo      = _fg_contribution × 2
--                     Fear & Greed direction-adjusted delta, ×2 to log-odds.
--                     Non-zero for every trade. Range ≈ ±0.12.
--                     Materiality threshold: |lo| ≥ 0.05.
--
--   feat_mom_lo     = _momentum_contribution × 2
--                     Momentum delta (direction-adjusted), ×2 to log-odds.
--                     Zero when |btc_change_24h| ≤ 2 %. Range ≈ ±0.15.
--                     Materiality threshold: |lo| ≥ 0.05.
--
--   feat_news_lo    = news_log_adj   (already in log-odds, no scaling)
--                     GNews sentiment × NEWS_LOGODDS_WEIGHT (1.5).
--                     Zero for non-politics or when GNews budget exhausted.
--                     Range ≈ ±1.5.  Materiality threshold: |lo| ≥ 0.10.
--
--   feat_mfld_lo    = manifold_log_adj  (already in log-odds, no scaling)
--                     Manifold divergence × MANIFOLD_LOGODDS_WEIGHT (0.6).
--                     Zero when Manifold returned no result.
--                     Range ≈ ±0.6.  Materiality threshold: |lo| ≥ 0.10.
--
--   feat_btc_dom_lo = _btc_dom_contribution × 2
--                     BTC-dominance alt-pressure delta, ×2 to log-odds.
--                     Only fires for ETH / altcoin / general-crypto markets
--                     when btc_dominance > 55 % or < 45 %.
--                     Values: { −0.06, 0.0, +0.06 }.
--                     Materiality threshold: |lo| ≥ 0.05.
--
-- NULL for pre-Phase-6 trades.  Backfilled at startup via
-- Database.backfill_feature_columns() using reasoning-string regex
-- (fg_lo/mom_lo multiplied by 2 from raw; news_lo/mfld_lo taken directly;
-- btc_dom_lo cannot be backfilled and remains NULL for legacy trades).
-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS feat_fg_lo      DOUBLE PRECISION;
ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS feat_mom_lo     DOUBLE PRECISION;
ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS feat_news_lo    DOUBLE PRECISION;
ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS feat_mfld_lo    DOUBLE PRECISION;
ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS feat_btc_dom_lo DOUBLE PRECISION;

CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_trades_feat_fg   ON trades(feat_fg_lo)  WHERE feat_fg_lo IS NOT NULL;
CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_trades_feat_mfld ON trades(feat_mfld_lo) WHERE feat_mfld_lo IS NOT NULL;

-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-- Manifold match audit — per-trade columns in trades
--
-- Persisted for every trade where Manifold was queried (status='accepted').
-- mfld_match_status: 'accepted' | 'rejected' | 'no_results'
-- mfld_inverted: TRUE when prob_final = 1 - prob_raw (party complement match)
-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS mfld_market_id    TEXT;
ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS mfld_market_title TEXT;
ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS mfld_market_url   TEXT;
ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS mfld_prob_raw     DOUBLE PRECISION;
ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS mfld_prob_final   DOUBLE PRECISION;
ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS mfld_inverted     BOOLEAN;
ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS mfld_match_score  DOUBLE PRECISION;
ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS mfld_match_reason TEXT;
ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS mfld_match_status TEXT;

-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-- Manifold match audit table — records every Manifold query attempt
--
-- Populated for ALL queries: accepted, rejected, and no_results.
-- used_in_trade=TRUE is set after executor confirms a trade was executed.
-- poly_market_id: Market.id from the Polymarket Market dataclass (never NULL).
-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS manifold_match_audit (
    id                TEXT PRIMARY KEY,
    timestamp         TIMESTAMPTZ DEFAULT NOW(),
    poly_market_id    TEXT NOT NULL,
    poly_question     TEXT NOT NULL,
    search_query      TEXT,
    mfld_market_id    TEXT,
    mfld_market_title TEXT,
    mfld_market_url   TEXT,
    prob_raw          DOUBLE PRECISION,
    prob_final        DOUBLE PRECISION,
    inverted          BOOLEAN DEFAULT FALSE,
    match_score       DOUBLE PRECISION,
    match_reason      TEXT,
    match_status      TEXT NOT NULL,
    used_in_trade     BOOLEAN DEFAULT FALSE,
    poly_outcome_type TEXT,
    mfld_outcome_type TEXT
);

CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_mfld_audit_timestamp ON manifold_match_audit(timestamp DESC);
CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_mfld_audit_status    ON manifold_match_audit(match_status);
CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_mfld_audit_poly_mkt  ON manifold_match_audit(poly_market_id);

-- Backfill outcome-type columns on pre-existing tables (idempotent).
ALTER TABLE manifold_match_audit ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS poly_outcome_type TEXT;
ALTER TABLE manifold_match_audit ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS mfld_outcome_type TEXT;

-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-- Matcher versioning — separate current-matcher metrics from legacy records
--
-- matcher_version tags each audit row with the matcher that produced it
-- (MANIFOLD_MATCHER_VERSION in bot/data/manifold.py).  This lets the metrics
-- endpoint isolate current_version stats from pre-versioning records, whose
-- accepted matches would now be rejected by the outcome-compatibility guard.
--
-- Backfill is one-shot and idempotent (only touches NULL matcher_version rows):
--   * rows with no outcome types  → 'legacy_pre_outcome_guard' (pre outcome-guard;
--     accepted without any outcome-type validation)
--   * rows with an outcome type   → 'v2_outcome_guard_no_version' (existed between
--     the outcome-guard and this versioning; real version not persisted)
-- We tag rather than infer the exact version that wasn't recorded.
-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
ALTER TABLE manifold_match_audit ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS matcher_version TEXT;

UPDATE manifold_match_audit
SET matcher_version = 'legacy_pre_outcome_guard'
WHERE matcher_version IS NULL
  AND poly_outcome_type IS NULL
  AND mfld_outcome_type IS NULL;

UPDATE manifold_match_audit
SET matcher_version = 'v2_outcome_guard_no_version'
WHERE matcher_version IS NULL
  AND (poly_outcome_type IS NOT NULL OR mfld_outcome_type IS NOT NULL);

CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_mfld_audit_version ON manifold_match_audit(matcher_version);

-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-- Metric exclusion — administrative closure flag
--
-- excluded_from_metrics: TRUE for trades closed for non-signal reasons
--   (bad matcher, data error, admin close).  These trades are excluded from
--   win_rate, calibration_score, realized_pnl, and feature attribution.
-- exclusion_reason: free-text label for the exclusion cause.
--   e.g. 'invalid_manifold_match_legacy'
-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS excluded_from_metrics BOOLEAN DEFAULT FALSE;
ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS exclusion_reason TEXT;

CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_trades_excluded ON trades(excluded_from_metrics)
  WHERE excluded_from_metrics = TRUE;

-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-- Fix 3: extended metrics_daily columns for DB-computed metrics
--
-- unrealized_pnl_est: SUM(edge_net * net_cost - fee) on open trades with edge_net.
--   Estimated — uses model's own edge signal, not live market price.
-- realized_pnl: SUM(close_pnl) on closed trades with a known resolution.
--   Exact — derived from actual market outcome.
-- open_count / closed_count / resolved_count: trade counts at snapshot time.
-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
ALTER TABLE metrics_daily ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS unrealized_pnl_est DOUBLE PRECISION;
ALTER TABLE metrics_daily ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS realized_pnl       DOUBLE PRECISION;
ALTER TABLE metrics_daily ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS open_count         INTEGER;
ALTER TABLE metrics_daily ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS closed_count       INTEGER;
ALTER TABLE metrics_daily ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS resolved_count     INTEGER;

-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-- Checkpoint alerts — one-shot and rate-limited Telegram observation alerts
--
-- fired_at:      timestamp of the first fire (immutable for one-shot checkpoints)
-- last_fired_at: updated on every fire (used for rate-limiting repeatable alerts)
-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS checkpoint_alerts (
    checkpoint_name TEXT PRIMARY KEY,
    fired_at        TIMESTAMPTZ NOT NULL,
    last_fired_at   TIMESTAMPTZ
);

-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-- Manifold evaluation cooldown — per-market backoff for the Manifold matcher
--
-- The trading loop re-evaluates the same ~stable set of politics/tech markets
-- every cycle (~60s).  Most resolve to a stable terminal verdict (no Manifold
-- coverage, low-score, outcome mismatch, conditional market) that will not change
-- on the next cycle.  Re-querying them every minute floods manifold_match_audit
-- with redundant rows and makes the metrics uninterpretable.
--
-- This table records, per poly_market_id, when the market was last evaluated and
-- the earliest time it should be evaluated again (retry_after).  evaluate() in
-- bot/strategy/bayesian.py consults it BEFORE calling the matcher and skips the
-- call (and the audit write) entirely while now() < retry_after.
--
-- last_status / cooldown_reason are stored for observability only.
-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS manifold_eval_cooldown (
    poly_market_id    TEXT PRIMARY KEY,
    last_evaluated_at TIMESTAMPTZ NOT NULL,
    last_status       TEXT NOT NULL,
    retry_after       TIMESTAMPTZ NOT NULL,
    cooldown_reason   TEXT
);

CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_mfld_cooldown_retry ON manifold_eval_cooldown(retry_after);

-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-- Replay R0: snapshot recorder — the archive the replay engine reads from
--
-- The signals table (Phase 2/5 schema) never had a writer; R0 makes it the
-- per-(market, cycle) decision archive.  One row per evaluated market per
-- cycle, carrying both the INPUTS the strategy saw (external signals, news
-- sentiment, per-feature log-odds) and the OUTPUTS it produced (probs, edges,
-- gates, skip_reason).  A replay run rebuilds Market/ExternalSignals from
-- these rows plus ext_snapshots and re-executes evaluate() deterministically.
--
-- cycle_ts groups all rows of one trading cycle and joins them to their
-- ext_snapshots row (same timestamp; no FK to keep writes independent).
-- days_to_resolution is persisted so replay does not depend on wall-clock.
-- news_budget_skipped distinguishes "GNews had nothing" from "GNews was not
-- asked this cycle" (5-query budget) — without it politics replay would treat
-- budget starvation as absence of news.
-- Retention: rows older than SIGNALS_RETENTION_DAYS (default 90) are pruned.
-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
ALTER TABLE signals ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS cycle_ts            TIMESTAMPTZ;
ALTER TABLE signals ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS category            TEXT;
ALTER TABLE signals ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS prior_prob          DOUBLE PRECISION;
ALTER TABLE signals ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS raw_final_prob      DOUBLE PRECISION;
ALTER TABLE signals ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS days_to_resolution  INTEGER;
ALTER TABLE signals ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS volume_24h          DOUBLE PRECISION;
ALTER TABLE signals ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS news_sentiment      DOUBLE PRECISION;
ALTER TABLE signals ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS news_budget_skipped BOOLEAN;
ALTER TABLE signals ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS guardrail_applied   BOOLEAN;
ALTER TABLE signals ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS guardrail_changed_decision BOOLEAN;
ALTER TABLE signals ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS feat_fg_lo          DOUBLE PRECISION;
ALTER TABLE signals ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS feat_mom_lo         DOUBLE PRECISION;
ALTER TABLE signals ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS feat_news_lo        DOUBLE PRECISION;
ALTER TABLE signals ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS feat_mfld_lo        DOUBLE PRECISION;
ALTER TABLE signals ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS feat_btc_dom_lo     DOUBLE PRECISION;

CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_signals_cycle ON signals(cycle_ts);

-- One row per trading cycle: the ExternalSignals snapshot every market in
-- that cycle was evaluated against.  Written once per cycle before the
-- evaluation loop; signals rows join on cycle_ts.
CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS ext_snapshots (
    cycle_ts                TIMESTAMPTZ PRIMARY KEY,
    btc_price               DOUBLE PRECISION,
    btc_change_24h          DOUBLE PRECISION,
    eth_price               DOUBLE PRECISION,
    eth_change_24h          DOUBLE PRECISION,
    btc_dominance           DOUBLE PRECISION,
    fear_greed_index        INTEGER,
    fear_greed_label        TEXT,
    total_market_cap_change DOUBLE PRECISION,
    valid                   BOOLEAN
);

-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-- Replay R1: replay core — re-execute evaluate() over the R0 archive
--
-- A replay run reads cycles from signals + ext_snapshots + markets, rebuilds
-- the exact inputs (including archived news_sentiment — GNews is never called),
-- re-runs BayesianStrategy.evaluate() with the archived cycle_ts as clock, and
-- writes one replay_decisions row per (cycle, market).
--
-- replay_runs tags every run with the code (git_sha) and strategy constants
-- (config_hash) that produced it: two runs over the same window with different
-- config_hash values are a counterfactual comparison; same config_hash against
-- the recorded rows is a determinism check (mismatches should be 0, modulo
-- day-boundary crossings between cycle_ts and the original wall-clock).
--
-- matched: replayed decision equals the recorded one (skip_reason, probs,
--   confidence, direction).  NULL when not comparable — e.g. reentry_guard
--   rows, recorded outside evaluate() with no decision fields to compare;
--   the replay still re-evaluates them, which is extra calibration data.
-- mismatch_field: first field that differed, for triage.
-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS replay_runs (
    run_id      TEXT PRIMARY KEY,
    created_at  TIMESTAMPTZ DEFAULT NOW(),
    git_sha     TEXT,
    config_hash TEXT,
    config_json TEXT,
    from_ts     TIMESTAMPTZ,
    to_ts       TIMESTAMPTZ,
    cycles      INTEGER,
    decisions   INTEGER,
    matched     INTEGER,
    mismatched  INTEGER,
    note        TEXT
);

CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS replay_decisions (
    id                   SERIAL PRIMARY KEY,
    run_id               TEXT NOT NULL,
    cycle_ts             TIMESTAMPTZ NOT NULL,
    market_id            TEXT NOT NULL,
    -- replayed outputs (same semantics as the signals columns)
    skip_reason          TEXT,
    prior_prob           DOUBLE PRECISION,
    estimated_prob       DOUBLE PRECISION,
    raw_final_prob       DOUBLE PRECISION,
    edge_gross           DOUBLE PRECISION,
    edge_net             DOUBLE PRECISION,
    regime_min_edge      DOUBLE PRECISION,
    days_to_resolution   INTEGER,
    confidence           DOUBLE PRECISION,
    direction            TEXT,
    would_trade          BOOLEAN,
    -- fidelity vs the recorded signals row
    recorded_skip_reason TEXT,
    matched              BOOLEAN,
    mismatch_field       TEXT
);

CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_replay_decisions_run ON replay_decisions(run_id);
CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_replay_decisions_mkt ON replay_decisions(market_id);

-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-- Replay R2: outcomes + calibration metrics
--
-- One row per resolved market, fetched from the Gamma API via
-- get_market_resolution() (UMA-final only: a market closed but still in
-- proposal/dispute is not stored).  outcome is the final YES price:
-- 1.0 = YES won, 0.0 = NO won.
--
-- Joining signals (or replay_decisions) to market_outcomes scores every
-- archived estimate against reality — Brier / log-loss of estimated_prob
-- benchmarked against the market price (prior_prob) on the same rows,
-- answering "does the model add value over the market?" across ALL
-- evaluations, not just executed trades.
-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS market_outcomes (
    market_id   TEXT PRIMARY KEY,
    outcome     DOUBLE PRECISION NOT NULL,
    resolved_at TIMESTAMPTZ,
    fetched_at  TIMESTAMPTZ DEFAULT NOW()
);