""" Paper Trading Executor — simulates order execution without real money. Simulates realistic slippage and fees to get accurate paper P&L. All trades are logged to PostgreSQL for metrics analysis. """ import asyncio import logging import uuid from dataclasses import dataclass, field from datetime import datetime, UTC from typing import Optional from bot.risk.manager import Order, Portfolio from bot.data.db import Database from bot.notify import telegram log = logging.getLogger(__name__) # Polymarket taker fee used for paper simulation. # Also stored as commission in each Trade for audit purposes. # NOTE: this is a heuristic — see COMMISSION_RATE in bayesian.py for context. POLYMARKET_FEE = 0.02 # 2% # Strong references to in-flight notification tasks. The event loop only # keeps a weak reference to tasks created via create_task(), so without this # set a pending Telegram notification could be garbage-collected before it # runs. Tasks remove themselves from the set on completion. _background_tasks: set[asyncio.Task] = set() def _notify_in_background(coro) -> None: """Fire-and-forget a Telegram notification, keeping the task referenced.""" task = asyncio.create_task(coro) _background_tasks.add(task) task.add_done_callback(_background_tasks.discard) def cash_available(bankroll: float, total_net_cost_open: float) -> float: """Cash left after the net cost (fees included) of all open positions. Single source of truth for the cash figure, shared by PaperExecutor.initialize() and the /api/summary endpoint so both always report the same number for the same DB state. total_net_cost_open comes from Database.get_open_position_data(). """ return max(0.0, bankroll - total_net_cost_open) @dataclass class Trade: id: str market_id: str question: str direction: str size_usdc: float entry_price: float shares: float # How many YES/NO shares bought fee_usdc: float net_cost: float timestamp: datetime reasoning: str paper: bool = True # ── Phase 1: edge neto audit fields ────────────────────────────────────── # edge_gross: raw model edge before any cost deductions # edge_net: edge_gross - spread_estimate - commission/size_usdc # Both are heuristic estimates — see schema.sql comment for details. edge_gross: float = 0.0 edge_net: float = 0.0 prior_prob: float = 0.0 # market.yes_price clamped, before Bayesian update final_prob: float = 0.0 # estimated probability after all signals # mid_price: order-book midpoint when available; falls back to market.yes_price mid_price: float = 0.0 spread_estimate: float = 0.02 commission: float = 0.0 # = POLYMARKET_FEE * size_usdc # ── Phase 2: market family ──────────────────────────────────────────────── family_key: str = "" # ── Phase 6: per-feature log-odds contributions ─────────────────────────── feat_fg_lo: float = 0.0 feat_mom_lo: float = 0.0 feat_news_lo: float = 0.0 feat_mfld_lo: float = 0.0 feat_btc_dom_lo: float = 0.0 # ── Manifold match audit ────────────────────────────────────────────────── mfld_market_id: Optional[str] = None mfld_market_title: Optional[str] = None mfld_market_url: Optional[str] = None mfld_prob_raw: Optional[float] = None mfld_prob_final: Optional[float] = None mfld_inverted: bool = False mfld_match_score: Optional[float] = None mfld_match_reason: Optional[str] = None mfld_match_status: Optional[str] = None def __str__(self) -> str: return ( f"[PAPER] {self.direction} {self.shares:.1f} shares @ {self.entry_price:.3f} " f"= ${self.net_cost:.2f} (fee ${self.fee_usdc:.2f}) " f"edge_net={self.edge_net:+.3f} family={self.family_key} " f"| {self.question[:40]}" ) class PaperExecutor: """Executes trades on paper — no real money, realistic simulation.""" def __init__(self, db: Database, bankroll: float) -> None: self._db = db self._portfolio = Portfolio( cash=bankroll, positions={}, ) log.info("Paper executor initialized with $%.2f bankroll", bankroll) async def initialize(self) -> None: """Reconcile in-memory portfolio with DB state. Called once after __init__ so the executor reflects any trades that survived a pod restart. After a TRUNCATE the DB is empty and the portfolio resets to a full bankroll automatically. Accounting model (must match execute() exactly): positions[market_id] = size_usdc (fee excluded — same as runtime) cash = bankroll - sum(net_cost) (fees already spent) total_value = cash + sum(size_usdc) = bankroll - sum(fees) exposure_pct = sum(size_usdc) / total_value """ positions_size, total_net_cost = await self._db.get_open_position_data() if not positions_size: log.info("No open positions in DB — starting with full bankroll") return positions_value = sum(positions_size.values()) self._portfolio.positions = positions_size self._portfolio.cash = cash_available(self._portfolio.cash, total_net_cost) total_value = self._portfolio.cash + positions_value exposure_pct = positions_value / total_value if total_value > 0 else 0.0 log.info( "Restored %d open position(s) from DB — " "positions_value=$%.2f net_cost_spent=$%.2f cash=$%.2f " "total_value=$%.2f exposure=%.2f%%", len(positions_size), positions_value, total_net_cost, self._portfolio.cash, total_value, exposure_pct * 100, ) def get_portfolio(self) -> Portfolio: return self._portfolio async def execute(self, order: Order) -> Optional[Trade]: """Simulate order execution with fees and slippage.""" if order.size_usdc > self._portfolio.cash: log.warning( "Insufficient paper cash: need $%.2f have $%.2f", order.size_usdc, self._portfolio.cash, ) return None # Simulate small slippage (0.1-0.3% depending on order size) slippage = min(0.003, order.size_usdc / 100000) # Determine entry price based on direction. # We fill at the current Polymarket mid price + slippage (buying at ask). # BUY_YES → paying the YES price (order.market_price) # BUY_NO → paying the NO price (1 - order.market_price) if order.direction == "BUY_YES": entry_price = min(0.99, order.market_price + slippage) else: entry_price = min(0.99, (1 - order.market_price) + slippage) fee = order.size_usdc * POLYMARKET_FEE net_cost = order.size_usdc + fee shares = order.size_usdc / entry_price # commission mirrors the heuristic COMMISSION_RATE applied in bayesian.py # when computing edge_net. Stored for audit: confirms cost assumption held. commission = order.size_usdc * POLYMARKET_FEE # = fee_usdc at current rate trade = Trade( id=str(uuid.uuid4()), market_id=order.market_id, question=order.question, direction=order.direction, size_usdc=order.size_usdc, entry_price=entry_price, shares=shares, fee_usdc=fee, net_cost=net_cost, timestamp=datetime.now(UTC), reasoning=order.reasoning, paper=True, # Phase 1 audit fields edge_gross=order.edge_gross, edge_net=order.edge_net, prior_prob=order.prior_prob, final_prob=order.final_prob, mid_price=order.mid_price, spread_estimate=order.spread_estimate, commission=commission, # Phase 2 family family_key=order.family_key, # Phase 6 feature log-odds feat_fg_lo=order.feat_fg_lo, feat_mom_lo=order.feat_mom_lo, feat_news_lo=order.feat_news_lo, feat_mfld_lo=order.feat_mfld_lo, feat_btc_dom_lo=order.feat_btc_dom_lo, # Manifold audit mfld_market_id=order.mfld_market_id, mfld_market_title=order.mfld_market_title, mfld_market_url=order.mfld_market_url, mfld_prob_raw=order.mfld_prob_raw, mfld_prob_final=order.mfld_prob_final, mfld_inverted=order.mfld_inverted, mfld_match_score=order.mfld_match_score, mfld_match_reason=order.mfld_match_reason, mfld_match_status=order.mfld_match_status, ) # Update paper portfolio self._portfolio.cash -= net_cost self._portfolio.positions[order.market_id] = order.size_usdc # Persist to DB await self._db.save_trade(trade) _notify_in_background( telegram.trade_opened(trade.question, trade.direction, trade.size_usdc, trade.edge_net) ) return trade async def close_legacy_position(self, market_id: str, reason: str, question: str = "") -> float: """ Close a paper position flagged by the legacy scan. Returns the capital recovered to cash (cost basis, assuming break-even exit — exact P&L would require the live exit price which isn't available at scan time). """ cost = self._portfolio.positions.pop(market_id, 0.0) self._portfolio.cash += cost # return capital at break-even await self._db.close_paper_position(market_id, reason) log.warning( "LEGACY_CLOSE market=%s | returned $%.2f to cash | %s", market_id, cost, reason[:80], ) _notify_in_background( telegram.trade_legacy_closed(question or market_id, cost, reason) ) return cost async def close_position(self, market_id: str, resolution: float, question: str = "") -> Optional[float]: """Close a paper position after market resolution. resolution: 1.0 if YES won, 0.0 if NO won. Settlement payout per trade: BUY_YES: shares * resolution BUY_NO: shares * (1 - resolution) pnl = payout - net_cost. Persists resolution and close_pnl to DB. Returns realized P&L for logging, or None if no position is open. """ if market_id not in self._portfolio.positions: return None position_cost = self._portfolio.positions[market_id] open_trades = await self._db.get_open_trades_for_market(market_id) if open_trades: payout = sum( float(t["shares"]) * (resolution if t["direction"] == "BUY_YES" else 1.0 - resolution) for t in open_trades ) net_cost = sum(float(t["net_cost"]) for t in open_trades) pnl = payout - net_cost else: # In-memory position with no open DB trades: direction/shares are # unknown, so settle at break-even instead of guessing the payout. log.warning( "close_position: no open DB trades for market %s — " "settling at break-even", market_id, ) payout = position_cost pnl = 0.0 # Persist first, mutate memory after: if the DB write fails, the # in-memory portfolio must keep the position so the next resolution # check can retry the close. await self._db.close_paper_position( market_id, reason="resolved", resolution=resolution, ) self._portfolio.positions.pop(market_id) self._portfolio.cash += payout log.info( "Closed position in %s, resolution=%.1f payout=$%.2f pnl=%+.2f", market_id, resolution, payout, pnl, ) _notify_in_background( telegram.trade_closed(question or market_id, pnl) ) return pnl