- Drop the 'from' date filter — it's a paid GNews feature, causes 403 on free tier
- Add User-Agent header to httpx client; urllib default passes, httpx default blocked
- Log actual HTTP status code for every request (INFO) and response body on non-200
- Cache neutral result on 400/401/403/429 to avoid hammering the quota
- Remove unused _iso_days_ago() helper and 'days' param from get_sentiment()
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
bot/data/news.py (new):
- NewsClient with in-memory cache (TTL=4h) to stay within 100 req/day limit
- _build_query(): strips dates, punctuation and stopwords from market question
- _score_headlines(): keyword-based pos/neg vote per article, averaged ∈ [-1, +1]
- Degrades to 0.0 on missing key, 403 quota, or network error
bot/strategy/bayesian.py:
- BayesianStrategy(news=NewsClient) — optional, backwards compatible
- Signal 4: GNews sentiment applied as direct log-odds shift (weight=1.5)
so a ±1.0 sentiment score moves a 50% prior to 82%/18%
- +0.10 confidence boost when news signal is present
- NEWS_LOGODDS_WEIGHT constant documented at module level
bot/main.py:
- Instantiate NewsClient, pass to BayesianStrategy, close in finally block
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Every market now emits an INFO line:
TRADE/SKIP <question> | cat=... | prior=... | est=... | edge=... | conf=... | dir=... | signals=... [| reason=...]
Unsupported-category and no-external-signals early exits also log at INFO
so the full evaluation funnel is visible without changing log level.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- polymarket.py: add keyword lists for politics (election, trump, ukraine…),
tech (AI, OpenAI, Apple, nvidia…), and events (super bowl, oscar, spacex…);
introduce _detect_category() so all four categories flow through a single
code path; filter already-expired markets (end_dt < now) in addition to
the existing future-cutoff filter; log per-category counts at startup
- bayesian.py: extend is_any_supported to include is_politics / is_tech /
is_events; use BTC as a risk-sentiment proxy for non-crypto categories
(halved weight to reflect weaker correlation); cap confidence_cap at 0.65
for macro/politics/tech/events; MIN_EDGE stays at 0.10
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
chemavx
chemavx