5 Commits

Include renames

Author	SHA1	Message	Date
chemavxandClaude Opus 4.8	664ecab174	feat(manifold): add matcher versioning to separate legacy accepted matches from v3_outcome_guard metrics ... Add MANIFOLD_MATCHER_VERSION="v3_outcome_guard" tag persisted to manifold_match_audit.matcher_version so metrics can isolate current-matcher stats from pre-versioning records, whose accepted matches the outcome guard would now reject. - schema: add matcher_version column + index; idempotent startup backfill tagging NULL rows as legacy_pre_outcome_guard (no outcome types) or v2_outcome_guard_no_version (has outcome type, version not persisted) - save_manifold_audit: write matcher_version on every new record - get_manifold_matches: split summary into current_version / all_time / legacy; recent_matches now carry matcher_version Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>	2026-06-02 08:59:19 +00:00
chemavxandClaude Opus 4.8	34fd1f8719	feat(manifold): add outcome compatibility guard and conditional market rejection ... Reject false-positive matches where Jaccard overlap is high but the outcome is not equivalent (e.g. Poly nomination vs Manifold "If X is nominee, will he win"). - _is_conditional(): detect conditional Manifold markets (If/Conditional on/ Assuming/Given that prefixes + mid-sentence " if ...," clauses) -> reject with reason "conditional_market". - _classify_outcome(): classify into nomination|primary_win|general_win| conditional|other; reject when poly/mfld types differ or either is conditional -> reason "outcome_mismatch: poly=... manifold=...". - Persist poly_outcome_type/mfld_outcome_type on ManifoldMatchResult, in manifold_match_audit (CREATE + idempotent ALTER), save_manifold_audit() and the bayesian call site. - Tests covering classification, conditional detection and the Graham Platner regression (now rejected); valid nomination<->nomination still accepted. Untouched: _MATCH_THRESHOLD (0.40), MANIFOLD_LOGODDS_WEIGHT, edge thresholds, exposure, trading logic. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>	2026-05-31 15:28:26 +00:00
chemavxandClaude Sonnet 4.6	9abaae44fd	feat(manifold): audit matching quality with ManifoldMatchResult and manifold_match_audit table ... Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>	2026-05-27 15:58:07 +00:00
chemavxandClaude Sonnet 4.6	ebdcff5a6e	fix(critical): complementary market family grouping + Manifold inversion guard ... FASE 1 — market_family_key() general election fix General elections now group by office, not by party, so complementary markets ("Republicans win Ohio governor" / "Democrats win Ohio governor") share the same family key (ohio-gubernatorial-2026). The second market is blocked by the occupied_families check rather than traded as independent. Primaries still keep the party (texas-republican-2026) because each party runs its own separate primary race. FASE 2 — Manifold party inversion guard _detect_party() identifies the winning side in both the Polymarket question and the matched Manifold title. If they are confirmed opposites (republican vs democrat), the probability is inverted (1 - prob) before use. Full audit log per query: poly_question / manifold_title / manifold_url / match_score / prob_raw / inverted / prob_final Root cause of Ohio Manifold:0.95 on both sides: both queries matched the same Manifold market ("Republicans win Ohio governor" prob=0.95). For the "Democrats win" query the inversion now produces prob_final=0.05 instead of blindly applying 0.95 to the wrong direction. FASE 4 — startup contradiction scan get_open_position_details() added to db.py. main.py checks all open positions at startup, warns on any family with >1 position, and recommends keeping the one with the highest edge_net. No auto-close. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>	2026-04-17 10:26:29 +00:00
chemavxandClaude Sonnet 4.6	0cdb0758c4	feat(strategy): Manifold cross-market signal + per-feature contribution logging ... Signal 5: ManifoldClient queries Manifold Markets API for a matching binary market by keyword overlap (threshold 0.25) and applies a log-odds adjustment proportional to the divergence from the Polymarket prior. manifold_log_adj = (log_odds(manifold_prob) - log_odds(prior)) × 0.6 A 30pp divergence (Manifold 0.75 vs Poly 0.45) produces edge_gross ≈ 0.19, clearing the politics far-horizon regime_min=0.12 after costs. Confidence boosted +0.08 when Manifold match found. Per-feature observability: every SKIP_EDGE_NET and TRADE log line now includes fg=±X.XXX mom=±X.XXX mfld=±X.XXXX news=±X.XXXX so the contribution of each signal to edge is auditable per market. Files: bot/data/manifold.py (new), bot/strategy/bayesian.py, bot/main.py Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>	2026-04-17 10:07:47 +00:00