chemavx/polymarket-bot
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Author SHA1 Message Date
chemavxandClaude Fable 5 5aa54eb423 fix(resolution): cast $3 explicitly in close_paper_position and persist before mutating portfolio
CI/CD / build-and-push (push) Successful in 8s
Details 
Cycle-10 resolution check found market 562186 resolved (Paxton YES) but the
close failed with asyncpg AmbiguousParameterError: Postgres cannot infer the
type of a bare '$3 IS NOT NULL' in the close_pnl CASE. Reproduced via PREPARE
in the postgres pod; fixed by casting every $3 use to double precision.

The failed DB write also left memory/DB diverged: close_position() popped the
position and credited cash before persisting, so the retry at cycle 20 skipped
the market (pnl=n/a) while the DB row stayed open. Now the DB write happens
first and memory mutates only on success; check_resolutions() also isolates
per-market close failures so one error doesn't abort the cycle.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-06-11 14:15:05 +00:00
chemavxandClaude Fable 5 e137116e7f feat(resolution): add automatic market resolution detector with conservative payout validation
CI/CD / build-and-push (push) Successful in 8s
Details 
- PolymarketClient.get_market_resolution(): query Gamma API by market id;
  resolved only when closed AND uma status final AND outcome prices binary
  (never settle on disputed/ambiguous outcomes)
- bot/main.py: check_resolutions() runs every 10 cycles (~10 min) in paper
  mode, settles open positions via PaperExecutor.close_position()
- close_reason now persisted as 'resolved' (resolution has its own column)
- tests/test_resolution_detector.py: 10 tests covering API parsing shapes
  and the BUY_NO settlement flow; 27/27 suite green

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-06-11 13:48:41 +00:00
chemavxandClaude Fable 5 340c8523cf fix(critical): remove dead manifold.get_probability() from legacy scan and fix BUY_NO payout calculation
CI/CD / build-and-push (push) Successful in 29s
Details 
- Legacy scan called ManifoldClient.get_probability(), removed in the v3
  matcher migration, causing AttributeError when positions had changed
  family keys. The block used Manifold to escalate positions to
  CLOSE_RECOMMENDED (inversion detection) — a trading decision forbidden
  under MANIFOLD_SIGNAL_ENABLED=false — so the dependency is removed
  entirely; the scan keeps family re-keying and sibling-conflict logic.

- PaperExecutor.close_position() computed cash += position_cost * resolution,
  ignoring direction: a winning BUY_NO (resolution=0.0) paid out $0 and
  reported a loss. Now settles per trade:
    BUY_YES: payout = shares * resolution
    BUY_NO:  payout = shares * (1 - resolution)
  with pnl = payout - net_cost; Telegram win/loss keys off pnl > 0.
  Adds read-only Database.get_open_trades_for_market().

- tests/test_paper_close.py covers the 4 deterministic payout cases;
  tests/conftest.py shims datetime.UTC for local Python 3.10 (prod is 3.11).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-06-11 12:23:44 +00:00