Bug #5: metrics.record_trade() only delegated to save_trade(), which
executor.execute() already calls — every trade was written twice (deduped
only by ON CONFLICT DO NOTHING). Remove the redundant call and the now-dead
method. RealExecutor.execute() raises NotImplementedError, so real mode is
unaffected.
Bug #6 (CYCLE SUMMARY): manifold accepted/rejected counters only increment
on the active-signal path, so with MANIFOLD_SIGNAL_ENABLED=false they always
printed 0/0 — print 'manifold_signal: disabled' instead.
family_conflicts_prevented duplicated blocked_by_family (same counter
printed twice); removed. gnews_cap was a dead variable with a misleading
comment; removed.
Bug #7 (/api/summary): total_trades was len() over a LIMIT-500 query —
capped once history grows; counts now come from COUNT(*) via
compute_metrics_from_db. cash_available was reimplemented in the API;
extract cash_available() in paper.py (same formula, unchanged) and feed it
from get_open_position_data() — the exact source/helper
PaperExecutor.initialize() uses. Test asserts API and executor report
identical cash for the same DB state.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
asyncio.create_task() results were discarded, and the event loop only holds
a weak reference to running tasks — a pending notification could be
garbage-collected before executing, silently dropping Telegram messages
(documented asyncio pitfall).
Route the three notification call sites (trade_opened, trade_legacy_closed,
trade_closed) through _notify_in_background(), which stores the task in a
module-level set and discards it on completion. Notifications stay
fire-and-forget; no business logic changed.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Cycle-10 resolution check found market 562186 resolved (Paxton YES) but the
close failed with asyncpg AmbiguousParameterError: Postgres cannot infer the
type of a bare '$3 IS NOT NULL' in the close_pnl CASE. Reproduced via PREPARE
in the postgres pod; fixed by casting every $3 use to double precision.
The failed DB write also left memory/DB diverged: close_position() popped the
position and credited cash before persisting, so the retry at cycle 20 skipped
the market (pnl=n/a) while the DB row stayed open. Now the DB write happens
first and memory mutates only on success; check_resolutions() also isolates
per-market close failures so one error doesn't abort the cycle.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- PolymarketClient.get_market_resolution(): query Gamma API by market id;
resolved only when closed AND uma status final AND outcome prices binary
(never settle on disputed/ambiguous outcomes)
- bot/main.py: check_resolutions() runs every 10 cycles (~10 min) in paper
mode, settles open positions via PaperExecutor.close_position()
- close_reason now persisted as 'resolved' (resolution has its own column)
- tests/test_resolution_detector.py: 10 tests covering API parsing shapes
and the BUY_NO settlement flow; 27/27 suite green
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Legacy scan called ManifoldClient.get_probability(), removed in the v3
matcher migration, causing AttributeError when positions had changed
family keys. The block used Manifold to escalate positions to
CLOSE_RECOMMENDED (inversion detection) — a trading decision forbidden
under MANIFOLD_SIGNAL_ENABLED=false — so the dependency is removed
entirely; the scan keeps family re-keying and sibling-conflict logic.
- PaperExecutor.close_position() computed cash += position_cost * resolution,
ignoring direction: a winning BUY_NO (resolution=0.0) paid out $0 and
reported a loss. Now settles per trade:
BUY_YES: payout = shares * resolution
BUY_NO: payout = shares * (1 - resolution)
with pnl = payout - net_cost; Telegram win/loss keys off pnl > 0.
Adds read-only Database.get_open_trades_for_market().
- tests/test_paper_close.py covers the 4 deterministic payout cases;
tests/conftest.py shims datetime.UTC for local Python 3.10 (prod is 3.11).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
New module bot/notify/telegram.py — httpx async, fire-and-forget via
asyncio.create_task, swallows all errors so notifications never affect
trade execution.
Three alert types:
📈/📉 TRADE ABIERTO — direction, size, edge_net (in execute())
✅/❌ GANADO/PERDIDO — approx PnL (in close_position())
🔒 LEGACY CLOSE — recovered capital + reason (in close_legacy_position())
close_position() and close_legacy_position() gain an optional question=""
param so the message shows the market name instead of market_id.
bot/main.py updated to pass question= to close_legacy_position().
Credentials (TELEGRAM_BOT_TOKEN, TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID) read from env vars
injected via bot-secrets k8s secret.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Eliminates the phantom 0.4% exposure overage after pod restarts.
During live trading execute() stores size_usdc in portfolio.positions and
deducts net_cost from cash — so total_value = bankroll − fees and
exposure_pct = sum(size_usdc) / (bankroll − fees).
Old initialize() stored net_cost in positions, making total_value = bankroll
and inflating exposure_pct (observed: 30.085% vs runtime 29.670%).
Fix: new get_open_position_data() returns both {market_id: size_usdc} and
total_net_cost in one query; initialize() uses size_usdc for positions and
total_net_cost for cash — identical model to execute().
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Adds feat_fg_lo / feat_mom_lo / feat_news_lo / feat_mfld_lo / feat_btc_dom_lo
to every trade, all normalized to log-odds contribution for direct comparability.
- fg / mom / btc_dom: raw probability-delta × 2 → log-odds
- news / mfld: already log-odds (LOGODDS_WEIGHT already applied), no scaling
- btc_dom tracked separately in bayesian.py instead of bundled in total_adj
- reasoning string updated to fg_lo= / mom_lo= notation for self-documentation
Schema: 5 new DOUBLE PRECISION columns + 2 partial indexes
Stack: TradingSignal → Order → Trade → save_trade all carry feat fields
Startup: backfill_feature_columns() recovers fg/mom/news/mfld from old
reasoning strings (×2 applied to fg/mom); btc_dom_lo stays NULL for legacy
API: /api/metrics/features — triggered/material split per feature with
two-level thresholds (0.05 for fg/mom/btc_dom, 0.10 for news/mfld)
API: /api/trades/legacy — exposes pre-Phase-1 trades (edge_net IS NULL)
API: _enrich_trade backward-compat: reads DB columns first, falls back to
reasoning regex with unit conversion for pre-Phase-6 trades
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
schema.sql
trades: + close_pnl, resolution (market outcome storage)
metrics_daily: + unrealized_pnl_est, realized_pnl, open/closed/resolved_count
db.py
close_paper_position(): accepts resolution; computes close_pnl in SQL
BUY_YES: (resolution − entry_price) × shares
BUY_NO: ((1 − resolution) − entry_price) × shares
save_daily_metrics(): persists new columns
compute_metrics_from_db(): single DB query for all metrics; no in-memory state
tracker.py — complete rewrite (stateless)
Removed self._trades, self._daily_returns, compute_metrics(), _compute_sharpe(),
check_promotion_thresholds(), _empty_metrics()
update_daily_summary() now reads compute_metrics_from_db() every cycle
Safe across pod restarts: always reflects full DB history
paper.py
close_position(): passes resolution to close_paper_position()
api/main.py /api/summary
Added unrealized_pnl_est (estimated, open trades) and realized_pnl (exact,
closed+resolved) as separate fields alongside total_pnl
win_rate: null if < 5 resolved trades (was proxy on entry_price < 0.5)
calibration_score: Brier-based, null if < 10 resolved trades
resolved_count exposed as field
Each field annotated with: exact/estimated, source, null conditions
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Adds run_legacy_scan() that executes once at startup before the trading loop:
1. Re-keys every open DB position using the current market_family_key()
2. Groups by new family key; KEEP = highest edge_net, CLOSE_RECOMMENDED = sibling
3. Manifold re-query for positions whose family key changed; if corrected
probability contradicts the trade direction → CLOSE_RECOMMENDED
4. Logs full report (KEEP / REVIEW / CLOSE_RECOMMENDED) before any closures
5. In paper mode: auto-closes all CLOSE_RECOMMENDED positions
For the existing Ohio bug:
- Democrats win Ohio governor (629557): CLOSE_RECOMMENDED
family changed ohio-democrat-2026 → ohio-gubernatorial-2026
Manifold re-query confirms prob=0.05 contradicts BUY_YES (inversion bug)
$X returned to cash at break-even
- Republicans win Ohio governor (629558): KEEP
higher edge_net (0.349 > 0.247)
Infrastructure:
- schema.sql: closed_at TIMESTAMPTZ, close_reason TEXT on trades
- db.py: all open-position queries filter WHERE closed_at IS NULL
+ close_paper_position(market_id, reason)
- paper.py: close_legacy_position(market_id, reason) → float
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Phase 1 — Edge neto real (paper.py, bayesian.py, risk/manager.py, db.py):
- Trade records now store edge_gross, edge_net, prior_prob, final_prob,
mid_price, spread_estimate, commission, family_key
- edge_net = edge_gross - SPREAD_ESTIMATE(0.02) - COMMISSION_RATE(0.02)
NOTE: both constants are heuristics, not exact Polymarket exchange costs
- Execution gate changed from edge_gross > MIN_EDGE to edge_net > regime_min_edge
Phase 2 — Market families (polymarket.py):
- market_family_key(market) groups related markets:
texas-republican-2026, fed-april-2026, openai-2026, etc.
- At most 1 trade per family per cycle; occupied_families propagated via main.py
- Family key logged on every TRADE and SKIP line
Phase 3 — GNews priority (news.py, bayesian.py, main.py):
- NewsClient.get_freshness() returns 1.0/0.75/0.40/0.10 by cache age
- gnews_priority(market, news) = uncertainty × volume_score × freshness
- Politics markets sorted by priority DESC before eval so best markets get
the 5-query/cycle GNews budget first
Phase 4 — Regime min-edge by category/horizon (bayesian.py):
- politics >60d → 0.12, 30-60d → 0.10, <30d → 0.08
- tech / crypto/finance → 0.10
- All thresholds applied to edge_net (not edge_gross)
Phase 5 — Observability (bayesian.py, main.py):
- Structured skip labels: SKIP_UNSUPPORTED, SKIP_NO_SIGNALS,
SKIP_PRIOR_EXTREME, SKIP_FAMILY, SKIP_GNEWS_PRIORITY, SKIP_EDGE_NET
- TRADE lines now include family_key, edge_gross, edge_net, regime_min, days
- schema.sql: 8 new cols on trades, 7 new cols on signals (via ALTER TABLE IF NOT EXISTS)
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
chemavx