Reject false-positive matches where Jaccard overlap is high but the outcome is
not equivalent (e.g. Poly nomination vs Manifold "If X is nominee, will he win").
- _is_conditional(): detect conditional Manifold markets (If/Conditional on/
Assuming/Given that prefixes + mid-sentence " if ...," clauses) -> reject with
reason "conditional_market".
- _classify_outcome(): classify into nomination|primary_win|general_win|
conditional|other; reject when poly/mfld types differ or either is conditional
-> reason "outcome_mismatch: poly=... manifold=...".
- Persist poly_outcome_type/mfld_outcome_type on ManifoldMatchResult, in
manifold_match_audit (CREATE + idempotent ALTER), save_manifold_audit() and
the bayesian call site.
- Tests covering classification, conditional detection and the Graham Platner
regression (now rejected); valid nomination<->nomination still accepted.
Untouched: _MATCH_THRESHOLD (0.40), MANIFOLD_LOGODDS_WEIGHT, edge thresholds,
exposure, trading logic.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
chemavx