fix(strategy): use word-boundary token matching for short crypto tickers to prevent false positives

Substring matching over question_lower flagged non-crypto markets as crypto:
'dissolved' matched 'sol', 'Canada' matched 'ada', 'Seth' matched 'eth'.
Those false flags armed the BTC-dominance signal (btc_dom_lo=+0.06 observed
on politics markets in production).

Short tickers (btc, eth, sol, xrp, doge, ltc, bnb, ada, avax) now go through
has_token(), which requires non-alphanumeric boundaries so 'ETH', '$ETH' and
'ETH/USD' still match. Long unambiguous names (bitcoin, ethereum, solana,
cardano, ...) remain substring checks.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

bot/strategy/bayesian.py

@@ -13,6 +13,7 @@ Polymarket might reflect in a slow-moving order book.
 import logging
 import math
 import os
+import re
 import uuid
 from dataclasses import dataclass, field
 from datetime import datetime, timedelta, timezone
@@ -159,6 +160,21 @@ def _days_to_resolution(end_date: str) -> int:
         return 30
 
 
+def has_token(text: str, token: str) -> bool:
+    """
+    True if `token` appears in `text` as a standalone word.
+
+    Short crypto tickers (eth, sol, ada, …) must NOT match inside ordinary
+    words — "Seth", "dissolved", "Canada" — but must still match the usual
+    market phrasings: "ETH", "$ETH", "ETH/USD", "SOL reach $200".  Boundaries
+    are any non-alphanumeric character (or start/end of string), so "$" and
+    "/" delimit correctly.
+    """
+    return re.search(
+        rf"(?<![A-Za-z0-9]){re.escape(token)}(?![A-Za-z0-9])", text, re.IGNORECASE
+    ) is not None
+
+
 # ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 # Phase 3 — GNews priority scoring
 # ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
@@ -345,13 +361,18 @@ class BayesianStrategy:
             "below", "under", "less than", "lower", "drop",
         ])
 
-        is_btc = "btc" in question_lower or "bitcoin" in question_lower
+        # Short tickers need word boundaries: "Seth" contains "eth",
-        is_eth = "eth" in question_lower or "ethereum" in question_lower
+        # "dissolved" contains "sol", "Canada" contains "ada".  Long
-        is_sol = "sol" in question_lower or "solana" in question_lower
+        # unambiguous names (bitcoin, ethereum, …) stay as substrings.
-        is_xrp = "xrp" in question_lower or "ripple" in question_lower
+        is_btc = has_token(question_lower, "btc") or "bitcoin" in question_lower
-        is_doge = "doge" in question_lower or "dogecoin" in question_lower
+        is_eth = has_token(question_lower, "eth") or "ethereum" in question_lower
+        is_sol = has_token(question_lower, "sol") or "solana" in question_lower
+        is_xrp = has_token(question_lower, "xrp") or "ripple" in question_lower
+        is_doge = has_token(question_lower, "doge") or "dogecoin" in question_lower
         is_altcoin = is_sol or is_xrp or is_doge or any(
-            w in question_lower for w in ["ltc", "litecoin", "bnb", "ada", "cardano", "avax", "avalanche"]
+            has_token(question_lower, t) for t in ["ltc", "bnb", "ada", "avax"]
+        ) or any(
+            w in question_lower for w in ["litecoin", "cardano", "avalanche"]
         )
         is_general_crypto = any(
             w in question_lower for w in ["crypto", "market cap", "total market", "altcoin", "defi"]

tests/test_bayesian_asset_detection.py

@@ -0,0 +1,159 @@
+"""
+Tests for FASE 4 — crypto ticker detection must use word boundaries.
+
+Regression: short tickers were detected with substring matching over
+question_lower, so non-crypto markets triggered crypto flags:
+
+  "Israeli parliament dissolved"  contains "sol" → is_sol / is_altcoin
+  "Will Canada win Group B"       contains "ada" → is_altcoin
+  "Will Seth Moulton be the nominee" contains "eth" → is_eth
+
+Those flags armed the BTC-dominance signal (btc_dom_lo=+0.06 observed in
+production on politics markets).  The fix routes short tickers (btc, eth,
+sol, xrp, doge, ltc, bnb, ada, avax) through has_token(), which requires
+non-alphanumeric boundaries; long unambiguous names (bitcoin, ethereum,
+solana, cardano, …) remain substrings.
+
+The is_* flags are internal to evaluate(), so the integration tests assert
+on btc_dom_lo parsed from the structured audit log (same technique as
+test_bayesian_macro_signals.py), with btc_dominance=60 so the signal fires
+whenever an ETH/altcoin flag is set.
+"""
+import asyncio
+import logging
+import re
+
+import pytest
+
+from bot.data.external import ExternalSignals
+from bot.data.polymarket import Market
+from bot.strategy.bayesian import BayesianStrategy, has_token
+
+BTC_DOM_RE = re.compile(r"btc_dom_lo=([+-]\d+\.\d+)")
+
+
+def _make_market(question: str, category: str) -> Market:
+    return Market(
+        id="mkt-test-1",
+        condition_id="cond-test-1",
+        question=question,
+        yes_token_id="yes-tok",
+        no_token_id="no-tok",
+        yes_price=0.50,
+        no_price=0.50,
+        volume_24h=50_000.0,
+        end_date="2026-07-15T00:00:00Z",
+        active=True,
+        category=category,
+    )
+
+
+def _make_signals() -> ExternalSignals:
+    # btc_dominance=60 (>55) arms the BTC-dominance signal for any market
+    # flagged as ETH / altcoin / general-crypto.
+    return ExternalSignals(
+        btc_price=100_000.0,
+        btc_change_24h=10.0,
+        eth_price=4_000.0,
+        eth_change_24h=8.0,
+        btc_dominance=60.0,
+        fear_greed_index=80,
+        fear_greed_label="greed",
+        total_market_cap_change=5.0,
+        valid=True,
+    )
+
+
+def _evaluate_and_parse_btc_dom(question: str, category: str, caplog) -> float:
+    """Run BayesianStrategy.evaluate and return btc_dom_lo from the audit log."""
+    strategy = BayesianStrategy(news=None, manifold=None, db=None)
+    market = _make_market(question, category)
+    with caplog.at_level(logging.INFO, logger="bot.strategy.bayesian"):
+        asyncio.run(
+            strategy.evaluate(market, _make_signals(), occupied_families=set())
+        )
+    for record in caplog.records:
+        m = BTC_DOM_RE.search(record.getMessage())
+        if m:
+            return float(m.group(1))
+    pytest.fail(
+        "No SKIP_EDGE_NET/TRADE log line with btc_dom_lo found; "
+        f"got: {[r.getMessage() for r in caplog.records]}"
+    )
+
+
+# ── has_token unit tests ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+def test_has_token_rejects_substrings_inside_words():
+    assert has_token("israeli parliament dissolved by june 30?", "sol") is False
+    assert has_token("will canada win group b?", "ada") is False
+    assert has_token("will seth moulton be the nominee?", "eth") is False
+
+def test_has_token_matches_common_market_formats():
+    assert has_token("will eth hit $5000?", "eth") is True
+    assert has_token("$eth above $5000?", "eth") is True
+    assert has_token("eth/usd above 5000?", "eth") is True
+    assert has_token("will sol reach $200?", "sol") is True
+    assert has_token("will ada reach $1?", "ada") is True
+    assert has_token("BTC to $150k?", "btc") is True  # case-insensitive
+
+
+# ── Regression: false positives must not arm the BTC-dominance signal ───────
+
+def test_israeli_parliament_market_is_not_sol(caplog):
+    """'dissolved' contains 'sol' — must NOT flag is_sol/is_altcoin."""
+    btc_dom_lo = _evaluate_and_parse_btc_dom(
+        "Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?", "politics", caplog
+    )
+    assert btc_dom_lo == 0.0
+
+def test_canada_market_is_not_ada(caplog):
+    """'Canada' contains 'ada' — must NOT flag is_altcoin."""
+    btc_dom_lo = _evaluate_and_parse_btc_dom(
+        "Will Canada win Group B?", "events", caplog
+    )
+    assert btc_dom_lo == 0.0
+
+def test_seth_moulton_market_is_not_eth(caplog):
+    """'Seth' contains 'eth' — must NOT flag is_eth."""
+    btc_dom_lo = _evaluate_and_parse_btc_dom(
+        "Will Seth Moulton be the nominee?", "politics", caplog
+    )
+    assert btc_dom_lo == 0.0
+
+
+# ── Real ticker mentions must keep working ───────────────────────────────────
+
+def test_eth_market_detected(caplog):
+    """Standalone 'ETH' still flags is_eth: BTC-dom fires and momentum uses ETH."""
+    btc_dom_lo = _evaluate_and_parse_btc_dom(
+        "Will ETH hit $5000?", "crypto/finance", caplog
+    )
+    assert btc_dom_lo != 0.0
+    # Momentum picks the ETH branch only when is_eth is True.
+    full_log = "\n".join(r.getMessage() for r in caplog.records)
+    assert "ETH 24h: +8.0%" in full_log
+
+def test_dollar_eth_market_detected(caplog):
+    """'$ETH' format still flags is_eth."""
+    btc_dom_lo = _evaluate_and_parse_btc_dom(
+        "$ETH above $5000?", "crypto/finance", caplog
+    )
+    assert btc_dom_lo != 0.0
+    full_log = "\n".join(r.getMessage() for r in caplog.records)
+    assert "ETH 24h: +8.0%" in full_log
+
+def test_sol_market_detected(caplog):
+    """'SOL reach $200' still flags is_sol → is_altcoin → BTC-dom signal."""
+    btc_dom_lo = _evaluate_and_parse_btc_dom(
+        "Will SOL reach $200?", "crypto/finance", caplog
+    )
+    # 'reach' → is_price_above, dominance 60 → -0.03 contribution → -0.06 log-odds
+    assert btc_dom_lo == pytest.approx(-0.06, abs=1e-4)
+
+def test_ada_market_detected(caplog):
+    """'ADA reach $1' still flags is_altcoin."""
+    btc_dom_lo = _evaluate_and_parse_btc_dom(
+        "Will ADA reach $1?", "crypto/finance", caplog
+    )
+    assert btc_dom_lo == pytest.approx(-0.06, abs=1e-4)