feat(manifold): audit matching quality with ManifoldMatchResult and manifold_match_audit table

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

bot/data/schema.sql

@@ -168,6 +168,52 @@ ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS feat_btc_dom_lo DOUBLE PRECISION;
 CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_trades_feat_fg   ON trades(feat_fg_lo)  WHERE feat_fg_lo IS NOT NULL;
 CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_trades_feat_mfld ON trades(feat_mfld_lo) WHERE feat_mfld_lo IS NOT NULL;
 
+-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+-- Manifold match audit — per-trade columns in trades
+--
+-- Persisted for every trade where Manifold was queried (status='accepted').
+-- mfld_match_status: 'accepted' | 'rejected' | 'no_results'
+-- mfld_inverted: TRUE when prob_final = 1 - prob_raw (party complement match)
+-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS mfld_market_id    TEXT;
+ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS mfld_market_title TEXT;
+ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS mfld_market_url   TEXT;
+ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS mfld_prob_raw     DOUBLE PRECISION;
+ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS mfld_prob_final   DOUBLE PRECISION;
+ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS mfld_inverted     BOOLEAN;
+ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS mfld_match_score  DOUBLE PRECISION;
+ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS mfld_match_reason TEXT;
+ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS mfld_match_status TEXT;
+
+-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+-- Manifold match audit table — records every Manifold query attempt
+--
+-- Populated for ALL queries: accepted, rejected, and no_results.
+-- used_in_trade=TRUE is set after executor confirms a trade was executed.
+-- poly_market_id: Market.id from the Polymarket Market dataclass (never NULL).
+-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS manifold_match_audit (
+    id                TEXT PRIMARY KEY,
+    timestamp         TIMESTAMPTZ DEFAULT NOW(),
+    poly_market_id    TEXT NOT NULL,
+    poly_question     TEXT NOT NULL,
+    search_query      TEXT,
+    mfld_market_id    TEXT,
+    mfld_market_title TEXT,
+    mfld_market_url   TEXT,
+    prob_raw          DOUBLE PRECISION,
+    prob_final        DOUBLE PRECISION,
+    inverted          BOOLEAN DEFAULT FALSE,
+    match_score       DOUBLE PRECISION,
+    match_reason      TEXT,
+    match_status      TEXT NOT NULL,
+    used_in_trade     BOOLEAN DEFAULT FALSE
+);
+
+CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_mfld_audit_timestamp ON manifold_match_audit(timestamp DESC);
+CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_mfld_audit_status    ON manifold_match_audit(match_status);
+CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_mfld_audit_poly_mkt  ON manifold_match_audit(poly_market_id);
+
 -- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 -- Fix 3: extended metrics_daily columns for DB-computed metrics
 --