feat(manifold): audit matching quality with ManifoldMatchResult and manifold_match_audit table

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-27 15:57:48 +00:00
parent ae7c737153
commit 9abaae44fd
8 changed files with 431 additions and 84 deletions
@@ -36,11 +36,15 @@ class Database:
                    entry_price, shares, fee_usdc, net_cost, timestamp, reasoning, paper,
                    edge_gross, edge_net, prior_prob, final_prob,
                    mid_price, spread_estimate, commission, family_key,
-                    feat_fg_lo, feat_mom_lo, feat_news_lo, feat_mfld_lo, feat_btc_dom_lo
+                    feat_fg_lo, feat_mom_lo, feat_news_lo, feat_mfld_lo, feat_btc_dom_lo,
+                    mfld_market_id, mfld_market_title, mfld_market_url,
+                    mfld_prob_raw, mfld_prob_final, mfld_inverted,
+                    mfld_match_score, mfld_match_reason, mfld_match_status
                ) VALUES (
                    $1,$2,$3,$4,$5,$6,$7,$8,$9,$10,$11,$12,
                    $13,$14,$15,$16,$17,$18,$19,$20,
-                    $21,$22,$23,$24,$25
+                    $21,$22,$23,$24,$25,
+                    $26,$27,$28,$29,$30,$31,$32,$33,$34
                )
                ON CONFLICT (id) DO NOTHING
            """,
@@ -53,6 +57,10 @@ class Database:
                # Phase 6 feature log-odds
                trade.feat_fg_lo, trade.feat_mom_lo, trade.feat_news_lo,
                trade.feat_mfld_lo, trade.feat_btc_dom_lo,
+                # Manifold audit fields
+                trade.mfld_market_id, trade.mfld_market_title, trade.mfld_market_url,
+                trade.mfld_prob_raw, trade.mfld_prob_final, trade.mfld_inverted,
+                trade.mfld_match_score, trade.mfld_match_reason, trade.mfld_match_status,
            )

    async def save_daily_metrics(self, metrics: dict) -> None:
@@ -493,6 +501,79 @@ class Database:
        return result


+    async def save_manifold_audit(
+        self,
+        audit_id: str,
+        poly_market_id: str,
+        poly_question: str,
+        search_query: str,
+        mfld_market_id: Optional[str],
+        mfld_market_title: Optional[str],
+        mfld_market_url: Optional[str],
+        prob_raw: Optional[float],
+        prob_final: Optional[float],
+        inverted: bool,
+        match_score: Optional[float],
+        match_reason: Optional[str],
+        match_status: str,
+    ) -> None:
+        async with self._pool.acquire() as conn:
+            await conn.execute("""
+                INSERT INTO manifold_match_audit (
+                    id, poly_market_id, poly_question, search_query,
+                    mfld_market_id, mfld_market_title, mfld_market_url,
+                    prob_raw, prob_final, inverted,
+                    match_score, match_reason, match_status, used_in_trade
+                ) VALUES ($1,$2,$3,$4,$5,$6,$7,$8,$9,$10,$11,$12,$13,FALSE)
+            """,
+                audit_id, poly_market_id, poly_question, search_query,
+                mfld_market_id, mfld_market_title, mfld_market_url,
+                prob_raw, prob_final, inverted,
+                match_score, match_reason, match_status,
+            )
+
+    async def mark_manifold_audit_used(self, audit_id: str) -> None:
+        async with self._pool.acquire() as conn:
+            await conn.execute(
+                "UPDATE manifold_match_audit SET used_in_trade = TRUE WHERE id = $1",
+                audit_id,
+            )
+
+    async def get_manifold_matches(self, limit: int = 50) -> dict:
+        async with self._pool.acquire() as conn:
+            summary = await conn.fetchrow("""
+                SELECT
+                    COUNT(*) FILTER (WHERE match_status = 'accepted')   AS total_accepted,
+                    COUNT(*) FILTER (WHERE match_status = 'rejected')   AS total_rejected,
+                    COUNT(*) FILTER (WHERE match_status = 'no_results') AS total_no_results,
+                    AVG(match_score) FILTER (WHERE match_status = 'accepted') AS avg_match_score
+                FROM manifold_match_audit
+            """)
+            mfld_dominated = await conn.fetchrow("""
+                SELECT COUNT(*) AS cnt FROM trades
+                WHERE feat_mfld_lo IS NOT NULL
+                  AND ABS(feat_mfld_lo) > 0.0001
+                  AND ABS(feat_mfld_lo) > ABS(COALESCE(feat_fg_lo, 0))
+                  AND ABS(feat_mfld_lo) > ABS(COALESCE(feat_mom_lo, 0))
+                  AND ABS(feat_mfld_lo) > ABS(COALESCE(feat_news_lo, 0))
+                  AND ABS(feat_mfld_lo) > ABS(COALESCE(feat_btc_dom_lo, 0))
+            """)
+            rows = await conn.fetch(
+                "SELECT * FROM manifold_match_audit ORDER BY timestamp DESC LIMIT $1",
+                limit,
+            )
+        return {
+            "summary": {
+                "total_accepted":           int(summary["total_accepted"] or 0),
+                "total_rejected":           int(summary["total_rejected"] or 0),
+                "total_no_results":         int(summary["total_no_results"] or 0),
+                "avg_match_score":          _f(summary["avg_match_score"]),
+                "trades_dominated_by_mfld": int(mfld_dominated["cnt"] or 0),
+            },
+            "recent_matches": [dict(r) for r in rows],
+        }
+
+
 def _f(v) -> Optional[float]:
    """None-safe float cast for asyncpg Decimal/None values."""
    return float(v) if v is not None else None
@@ -2,24 +2,24 @@
 Manifold Markets client — cross-platform prediction market probability signals.

 For each Polymarket question, searches Manifold for a matching binary market
-by keyword overlap and returns its probability as a calibration signal.
+by keyword overlap and returns a ManifoldMatchResult with full audit metadata.

-Inversion guard: if the Manifold market's winning side (Republican / Democrat)
-is the complement of the Polymarket question's winning side, the probability is
-automatically inverted (1 - prob).  This prevents "Democrats win Ohio governor"
-from consuming the probability of a Manifold market titled "Republicans win Ohio
-governor" without adjustment.
+Match threshold: >= 0.40 Jaccard overlap (raised from 0.25 for stricter semantics).

-Rejection guard: if the match score falls below _MATCH_THRESHOLD the market is
-rejected, even if inversion would otherwise apply.  All decisions are logged at
-INFO so they can be audited per-cycle.
+Inversion guard (conservative):
+  - If Polymarket question names a party (democrat/republican) AND the matched
+    Manifold market names the OPPOSITE party → invert probability (1 - prob).
+  - If Polymarket question names a party AND Manifold market has NO party keyword
+    → reject with reason='ambiguous_inversion' (can't determine if inversion applies).
+  - All other cases: no inversion, accept if score >= threshold.
+  - Ante duda, reject.

-Cache TTL: 30 minutes (Manifold markets move slowly vs our 60 s cycle).
-Match threshold: >= 0.25 keyword overlap ratio between significant tokens.
+Cache TTL: 30 minutes.
 """
 import logging
 import re
 import time
+from dataclasses import dataclass, field
 from typing import Optional

 import httpx
@@ -29,7 +29,7 @@ CACHE_TTL_SEC = 1800  # 30 minutes

 log = logging.getLogger(__name__)

-_MATCH_THRESHOLD = 0.25
+_MATCH_THRESHOLD = 0.40  # raised from 0.25

 _STOP_WORDS = frozenset([
    "will", "the", "a", "an", "is", "are", "was", "were", "be", "been",
@@ -43,9 +43,22 @@ _STOP_WORDS = frozenset([
    "before", "during", "until", "against", "between", "through",
 ])

-# Mutually exclusive political parties used for complement detection
 _REPUBLICAN_WORDS = frozenset(["republican", "republicans", "gop"])
-_DEMOCRAT_WORDS = frozenset(["democrat", "democrats", "democratic"])
+_DEMOCRAT_WORDS   = frozenset(["democrat", "democrats", "democratic"])
+
+
+@dataclass
+class ManifoldMatchResult:
+    status: str                        # 'accepted' | 'rejected' | 'no_results'
+    prob_final: Optional[float] = None
+    prob_raw:   Optional[float] = None
+    market_id:    Optional[str] = None  # Manifold internal market ID
+    market_title: Optional[str] = None
+    market_url:   Optional[str] = None
+    match_score:  Optional[float] = None  # 0-1 Jaccard
+    match_reason: Optional[str] = None   # human-readable explanation
+    inverted: bool = False
+    search_query: str = ""


 def _significant_words(text: str) -> set[str]:
@@ -69,27 +82,14 @@ def _detect_party(text: str) -> Optional[str]:
    return None


-def _best_match_with_audit(
-    poly_question: str,
-    results: list[dict],
-) -> tuple[Optional[dict], float, bool]:
-    """
-    Find the best-matching open binary Manifold market.
-
-    Returns (match, score, needs_inversion):
-      match            — best result dict, or None if below threshold
-      score            — keyword overlap score of best candidate (even if rejected)
-      needs_inversion  — True when Manifold market favours the OPPOSITE party/side
-                         to the Polymarket question (probability should be 1 - prob)
-    """
+def _find_best_candidate(poly_question: str, results: list[dict]) -> tuple[Optional[dict], float]:
+    """Find the highest-scoring open binary Manifold market by Jaccard overlap."""
    poly_words = _significant_words(poly_question)
-    poly_party = _detect_party(poly_question)
    if not poly_words:
-        return None, 0.0, False
+        return None, 0.0

    best_score = 0.0
    best: Optional[dict] = None
-    best_needs_inv = False

    for result in results:
        if result.get("outcomeType") != "BINARY":
@@ -106,18 +106,14 @@ def _best_match_with_audit(
        if score > best_score:
            best_score = score
            best = result
-            manifold_party = _detect_party(title)
-            # Inversion is warranted only when both sides are unambiguously detected
-            # and they are confirmed opposites (republican ≠ democrat).
-            best_needs_inv = (
-                poly_party is not None
-                and manifold_party is not None
-                and poly_party != manifold_party
-            )

-    if best_score >= _MATCH_THRESHOLD and best is not None:
-        return best, best_score, best_needs_inv
-    return None, best_score, False
+    return best, best_score
+
+
+def _market_url(match: dict) -> Optional[str]:
+    slug    = match.get("slug", "")
+    creator = match.get("creatorUsername", "")
+    return f"https://manifold.markets/{creator}/{slug}" if slug else None


 class ManifoldClient:
@@ -125,17 +121,16 @@ class ManifoldClient:

    def __init__(self) -> None:
        self._client = httpx.AsyncClient(timeout=15)
-        # question → (fetched_at_monotonic, probability_or_None)
-        self._cache: dict[str, tuple[float, Optional[float]]] = {}
+        # question → (fetched_at_monotonic, ManifoldMatchResult)
+        self._cache: dict[str, tuple[float, ManifoldMatchResult]] = {}

-    async def get_probability(self, question: str) -> Optional[float]:
+    async def get_match(self, question: str) -> ManifoldMatchResult:
        """
-        Return Manifold probability for a matching market, or None.
+        Return a ManifoldMatchResult for the given Polymarket question.

-        Probability is already adjusted for party-direction inversion when
-        the matched Manifold market is the complement of our question.
-
-        Full audit log is emitted at INFO for every resolved query.
+        status='accepted'   → prob_final is set and ready to use as signal
+        status='rejected'   → match found but failed quality/inversion check
+        status='no_results' → API returned no results or call failed
        """
        now = time.monotonic()
        cached = self._cache.get(question)
@@ -144,8 +139,9 @@ class ManifoldClient:

        query = _build_search_query(question)
        if not query:
-            self._cache[question] = (now, None)
-            return None
+            result = ManifoldMatchResult(status="no_results", search_query="")
+            self._cache[question] = (now, result)
+            return result

        try:
            resp = await self._client.get(
@@ -154,45 +150,116 @@ class ManifoldClient:
            )
            resp.raise_for_status()
            results = resp.json()
-        except Exception as e:
-            log.warning("Manifold API error for %r: %s", question[:40], e)
-            self._cache[question] = (now, None)
-            return None
+        except Exception as exc:
+            log.warning("Manifold API error for %r: %s", question[:40], exc)
+            result = ManifoldMatchResult(status="no_results", search_query=query)
+            self._cache[question] = (now, result)
+            return result

-        match, score, needs_inv = _best_match_with_audit(question, results)
+        if not results:
+            result = ManifoldMatchResult(status="no_results", search_query=query)
+            self._cache[question] = (now, result)
+            return result

-        if match is None:
+        best, score = _find_best_candidate(question, results)
+
+        # ── Score threshold ───────────────────────────────────────────────────
+        if best is None or score < _MATCH_THRESHOLD:
+            reason = f"jaccard={score:.2f}<{_MATCH_THRESHOLD:.2f}"
            log.info(
-                "Manifold no_match: %-50s | best_score=%.2f < %.2f | query=%r",
+                "Manifold REJECTED  %-50s | score=%.2f < threshold=%.2f | query=%r",
                question[:50], score, _MATCH_THRESHOLD, query,
            )
-            self._cache[question] = (now, None)
-            return None
+            result = ManifoldMatchResult(
+                status="rejected",
+                market_title=best.get("question") if best else None,
+                match_score=score if best else None,
+                match_reason=reason,
+                search_query=query,
+            )
+            self._cache[question] = (now, result)
+            return result

-        prob_raw = float(match["probability"])
-        prob_final = (1.0 - prob_raw) if needs_inv else prob_raw
+        # ── Inversion analysis (conservative) ────────────────────────────────
+        poly_party     = _detect_party(question)
+        manifold_party = _detect_party(best.get("question", ""))

-        # Build market URL from slug (best-effort; may be missing)
-        slug = match.get("slug", "")
-        creator = match.get("creatorUsername", "")
-        url = f"https://manifold.markets/{creator}/{slug}" if slug else "n/a"
+        poly_words    = _significant_words(question)
+        mfld_words    = _significant_words(best.get("question", ""))
+        matched_tokens = sorted(poly_words & mfld_words)[:6]
+
+        inverted = False
+        rejection_reason: Optional[str] = None
+
+        if poly_party is not None:
+            if manifold_party is None:
+                # Poly specifies a party; Manifold does not → can't verify inversion safety
+                rejection_reason = (
+                    f"ambiguous_inversion: poly_party={poly_party}, mfld_party=none"
+                )
+            elif manifold_party != poly_party:
+                # Clear opposite parties — apply inversion
+                inverted = True
+            # manifold_party == poly_party → same party, no inversion needed
+
+        if rejection_reason is not None:
+            url = _market_url(best)
+            log.info(
+                "Manifold REJECTED  %-50s | score=%.2f | reason=%s\n"
+                "  mfld_title: %s",
+                question[:50], score, rejection_reason, best.get("question", "")[:70],
+            )
+            result = ManifoldMatchResult(
+                status="rejected",
+                market_id=str(best.get("id", "")) or None,
+                market_title=best.get("question"),
+                market_url=url,
+                match_score=score,
+                match_reason=(
+                    f"jaccard={score:.2f}, tokens={matched_tokens}, {rejection_reason}"
+                ),
+                search_query=query,
+            )
+            self._cache[question] = (now, result)
+            return result
+
+        # ── Accepted ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+        prob_raw   = float(best["probability"])
+        prob_final = (1.0 - prob_raw) if inverted else prob_raw
+        url        = _market_url(best)
+
+        match_reason = f"jaccard={score:.2f}, tokens={matched_tokens}"
+        if inverted:
+            match_reason += f", inverted=party({poly_party}≠{manifold_party})"

        log.info(
-            "Manifold %s: %-50s\n"
-            "  poly_question: %s\n"
-            "  manifold_title: %s\n"
-            "  manifold_url:   %s\n"
-            "  match_score: %.2f | prob_raw=%.3f | inverted=%s | prob_final=%.3f",
-            "MATCH_INVERTED" if needs_inv else "MATCH",
+            "Manifold %s %-50s\n"
+            "  poly: %s\n"
+            "  mfld: %s\n"
+            "  url:  %s\n"
+            "  score=%.2f | raw=%.3f | inverted=%s | final=%.3f",
+            "ACCEPTED_INVERTED" if inverted else "ACCEPTED  ",
            question[:50],
            question,
-            match.get("question", ""),
-            url,
-            score, prob_raw, needs_inv, prob_final,
+            best.get("question", ""),
+            url or "n/a",
+            score, prob_raw, inverted, prob_final,
        )

-        self._cache[question] = (now, prob_final)
-        return prob_final
+        result = ManifoldMatchResult(
+            status="accepted",
+            prob_final=prob_final,
+            prob_raw=prob_raw,
+            market_id=str(best.get("id", "")) or None,
+            market_title=best.get("question"),
+            market_url=url,
+            match_score=score,
+            match_reason=match_reason,
+            inverted=inverted,
+            search_query=query,
+        )
+        self._cache[question] = (now, result)
+        return result

    async def close(self) -> None:
        await self._client.aclose()
@@ -168,6 +168,52 @@ ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS feat_btc_dom_lo DOUBLE PRECISION;
 CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_trades_feat_fg   ON trades(feat_fg_lo)  WHERE feat_fg_lo IS NOT NULL;
 CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_trades_feat_mfld ON trades(feat_mfld_lo) WHERE feat_mfld_lo IS NOT NULL;

+-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+-- Manifold match audit — per-trade columns in trades
+--
+-- Persisted for every trade where Manifold was queried (status='accepted').
+-- mfld_match_status: 'accepted' | 'rejected' | 'no_results'
+-- mfld_inverted: TRUE when prob_final = 1 - prob_raw (party complement match)
+-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS mfld_market_id    TEXT;
+ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS mfld_market_title TEXT;
+ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS mfld_market_url   TEXT;
+ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS mfld_prob_raw     DOUBLE PRECISION;
+ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS mfld_prob_final   DOUBLE PRECISION;
+ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS mfld_inverted     BOOLEAN;
+ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS mfld_match_score  DOUBLE PRECISION;
+ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS mfld_match_reason TEXT;
+ALTER TABLE trades ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS mfld_match_status TEXT;
+
+-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+-- Manifold match audit table — records every Manifold query attempt
+--
+-- Populated for ALL queries: accepted, rejected, and no_results.
+-- used_in_trade=TRUE is set after executor confirms a trade was executed.
+-- poly_market_id: Market.id from the Polymarket Market dataclass (never NULL).
+-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS manifold_match_audit (
+    id                TEXT PRIMARY KEY,
+    timestamp         TIMESTAMPTZ DEFAULT NOW(),
+    poly_market_id    TEXT NOT NULL,
+    poly_question     TEXT NOT NULL,
+    search_query      TEXT,
+    mfld_market_id    TEXT,
+    mfld_market_title TEXT,
+    mfld_market_url   TEXT,
+    prob_raw          DOUBLE PRECISION,
+    prob_final        DOUBLE PRECISION,
+    inverted          BOOLEAN DEFAULT FALSE,
+    match_score       DOUBLE PRECISION,
+    match_reason      TEXT,
+    match_status      TEXT NOT NULL,
+    used_in_trade     BOOLEAN DEFAULT FALSE
+);
+
+CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_mfld_audit_timestamp ON manifold_match_audit(timestamp DESC);
+CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_mfld_audit_status    ON manifold_match_audit(match_status);
+CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_mfld_audit_poly_mkt  ON manifold_match_audit(poly_market_id);
+
 -- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 -- Fix 3: extended metrics_daily columns for DB-computed metrics
 --
@@ -57,6 +57,16 @@ class Trade:
    feat_news_lo:    float = 0.0
    feat_mfld_lo:    float = 0.0
    feat_btc_dom_lo: float = 0.0
+    # ── Manifold match audit ──────────────────────────────────────────────────
+    mfld_market_id:   Optional[str]   = None
+    mfld_market_title: Optional[str]  = None
+    mfld_market_url:  Optional[str]   = None
+    mfld_prob_raw:    Optional[float] = None
+    mfld_prob_final:  Optional[float] = None
+    mfld_inverted:    bool            = False
+    mfld_match_score: Optional[float] = None
+    mfld_match_reason: Optional[str]  = None
+    mfld_match_status: Optional[str]  = None

    def __str__(self) -> str:
        return (
@@ -176,6 +186,16 @@ class PaperExecutor:
            feat_news_lo=order.feat_news_lo,
            feat_mfld_lo=order.feat_mfld_lo,
            feat_btc_dom_lo=order.feat_btc_dom_lo,
+            # Manifold audit
+            mfld_market_id=order.mfld_market_id,
+            mfld_market_title=order.mfld_market_title,
+            mfld_market_url=order.mfld_market_url,
+            mfld_prob_raw=order.mfld_prob_raw,
+            mfld_prob_final=order.mfld_prob_final,
+            mfld_inverted=order.mfld_inverted,
+            mfld_match_score=order.mfld_match_score,
+            mfld_match_reason=order.mfld_match_reason,
+            mfld_match_status=order.mfld_match_status,
        )

        # Update paper portfolio
@@ -141,6 +141,12 @@ async def run_trading_loop(
                    # Block this family for the rest of the cycle (Phase 2)
                    occupied_families.add(signal.family_key)
                    cycle_trades += 1
+                    # Mark manifold audit record as used in this trade
+                    if signal.mfld_audit_id:
+                        try:
+                            await db.mark_manifold_audit_used(signal.mfld_audit_id)
+                        except Exception as exc:
+                            log.warning("Failed to mark manifold audit used: %s", exc)

            # 8. [CYCLE SUMMARY] — one block per cycle, stable format for grep/compare
            stats = strategy.get_cycle_stats()
@@ -375,7 +381,7 @@ async def main() -> None:
    external = ExternalDataClient()
    news = NewsClient()
    manifold = ManifoldClient()
-    strategy = BayesianStrategy(news=news, manifold=manifold)
+    strategy = BayesianStrategy(news=news, manifold=manifold, db=db)
    risk = RiskManager(max_position_pct=0.05, max_exposure_pct=0.30)
    executor = PaperExecutor(db=db, bankroll=PAPER_BANKROLL) if PAPER_MODE else None
    metrics = MetricsTracker(db=db)
@@ -62,6 +62,17 @@ class Order:
    feat_news_lo:    float = 0.0
    feat_mfld_lo:    float = 0.0
    feat_btc_dom_lo: float = 0.0
+    # Manifold audit fields (propagated from TradingSignal → Trade → DB)
+    mfld_audit_id:    Optional[str]   = None
+    mfld_market_id:   Optional[str]   = None
+    mfld_market_title: Optional[str]  = None
+    mfld_market_url:  Optional[str]   = None
+    mfld_prob_raw:    Optional[float] = None
+    mfld_prob_final:  Optional[float] = None
+    mfld_inverted:    bool            = False
+    mfld_match_score: Optional[float] = None
+    mfld_match_reason: Optional[str]  = None
+    mfld_match_status: Optional[str]  = None


 class RiskManager:
@@ -159,4 +170,15 @@ class RiskManager:
            feat_news_lo=signal.feat_news_lo,
            feat_mfld_lo=signal.feat_mfld_lo,
            feat_btc_dom_lo=signal.feat_btc_dom_lo,
+            # Manifold audit
+            mfld_audit_id=signal.mfld_audit_id,
+            mfld_market_id=signal.mfld_market_id,
+            mfld_market_title=signal.mfld_market_title,
+            mfld_market_url=signal.mfld_market_url,
+            mfld_prob_raw=signal.mfld_prob_raw,
+            mfld_prob_final=signal.mfld_prob_final,
+            mfld_inverted=signal.mfld_inverted,
+            mfld_match_score=signal.mfld_match_score,
+            mfld_match_reason=signal.mfld_match_reason,
+            mfld_match_status=signal.mfld_match_status,
        )
@@ -12,16 +12,19 @@ Polymarket might reflect in a slow-moving order book.
 """
 import logging
 import math
+import uuid
 from dataclasses import dataclass, field
 from datetime import datetime, timezone
 from typing import Optional, TYPE_CHECKING

 from bot.data.polymarket import Market, market_family_key
 from bot.data.external import ExternalSignals
+from bot.data.manifold import ManifoldMatchResult

 if TYPE_CHECKING:
    from bot.data.news import NewsClient
    from bot.data.manifold import ManifoldClient
+    from bot.data.db import Database

 log = logging.getLogger(__name__)

@@ -170,6 +173,19 @@ class TradingSignal:
    feat_news_lo:    float = 0.0
    feat_mfld_lo:    float = 0.0
    feat_btc_dom_lo: float = 0.0
+    # ── Manifold match audit (propagated → Order → Trade → DB) ───────────────
+    # mfld_audit_id: UUID of the manifold_match_audit row; used to mark
+    #   used_in_trade=TRUE after executor confirms the trade was executed.
+    mfld_audit_id:    Optional[str]   = None
+    mfld_market_id:   Optional[str]   = None
+    mfld_market_title: Optional[str]  = None
+    mfld_market_url:  Optional[str]   = None
+    mfld_prob_raw:    Optional[float] = None
+    mfld_prob_final:  Optional[float] = None
+    mfld_inverted:    bool            = False
+    mfld_match_score: Optional[float] = None
+    mfld_match_reason: Optional[str]  = None
+    mfld_match_status: Optional[str]  = None


 class BayesianStrategy:
@@ -201,10 +217,12 @@ class BayesianStrategy:
        self,
        news: Optional["NewsClient"] = None,
        manifold: Optional["ManifoldClient"] = None,
+        db: Optional["Database"] = None,
    ) -> None:
        self._signal_count = 0
        self._news = news
        self._manifold = manifold
+        self._db = db
        self._news_queries_this_cycle = 0
        # Per-cycle counters — reset by reset_cycle(), read by get_cycle_stats()
        self._skip_family: int = 0
@@ -419,18 +437,72 @@ class BayesianStrategy:
        # Signal 5: Manifold cross-market probability (politics + tech)
        # Applies a log-odds adjustment proportional to divergence from prior.
        # No query budget — 30 min cache means network cost is paid once per cycle.
+        # Now uses ManifoldMatchResult for stricter semantic validation and audit.
        manifold_log_adj = 0.0
        manifold_used = False
+        manifold_result: Optional[ManifoldMatchResult] = None
+        audit_id: Optional[str] = None
+
        if (is_politics or is_tech) and self._manifold is not None:
-            manifold_prob = await self._manifold.get_probability(market.question)
-            if manifold_prob is not None:
+            manifold_result = await self._manifold.get_match(market.question)
+
+            # Persist audit record for ALL outcomes (accepted / rejected / no_results)
+            if self._db is not None:
+                if not market.id:
+                    log.error(
+                        "MANIFOLD_AUDIT: market.id is None/empty — skipping audit save | "
+                        "question=%r", market.question[:60],
+                    )
+                else:
+                    audit_id = str(uuid.uuid4())
+                    try:
+                        await self._db.save_manifold_audit(
+                            audit_id=audit_id,
+                            poly_market_id=market.id,
+                            poly_question=market.question,
+                            search_query=manifold_result.search_query,
+                            mfld_market_id=manifold_result.market_id,
+                            mfld_market_title=manifold_result.market_title,
+                            mfld_market_url=manifold_result.market_url,
+                            prob_raw=manifold_result.prob_raw,
+                            prob_final=manifold_result.prob_final,
+                            inverted=manifold_result.inverted,
+                            match_score=manifold_result.match_score,
+                            match_reason=manifold_result.match_reason,
+                            match_status=manifold_result.status,
+                        )
+                    except Exception as exc:
+                        log.warning("Failed to save manifold audit: %s", exc)
+                        audit_id = None
+
+            # Structured log — both forms for compatibility
+            log.info(
+                "MANIFOLD_MATCH poly='%s' mfld='%s' score=%s raw=%s final=%s"
+                " inverted=%s status=%s reason=%s",
+                market.question, manifold_result.market_title,
+                manifold_result.match_score, manifold_result.prob_raw,
+                manifold_result.prob_final, manifold_result.inverted,
+                manifold_result.status, manifold_result.match_reason,
+            )
+            log.info("MANIFOLD_MATCH", extra={
+                "poly_question": market.question,
+                "mfld_title":    manifold_result.market_title,
+                "score":         manifold_result.match_score,
+                "prob_raw":      manifold_result.prob_raw,
+                "prob_final":    manifold_result.prob_final,
+                "inverted":      manifold_result.inverted,
+                "status":        manifold_result.status,
+                "reason":        manifold_result.match_reason,
+            })
+
+            if manifold_result.status == "accepted" and manifold_result.prob_final is not None:
                manifold_used = True
                self._manifold_fetched += 1
-                m_clamped = max(0.05, min(0.95, manifold_prob))
+                m_clamped = max(0.05, min(0.95, manifold_result.prob_final))
                m_log = math.log(m_clamped / (1 - m_clamped))
                p_log = math.log(prior / (1 - prior))
                manifold_log_adj = (m_log - p_log) * MANIFOLD_LOGODDS_WEIGHT
-                sources.append(f"Manifold:{manifold_prob:.2f}")
+                sources.append(f"Manifold:{manifold_result.prob_final:.2f}")

        # Confidence cap: macro/politics/tech signals are weaker proxies
        confidence_cap = 0.65 if (is_macro or is_politics or is_tech or is_events) else 0.90
@@ -560,6 +632,17 @@ class BayesianStrategy:
            feat_news_lo=feat_news_lo,
            feat_mfld_lo=feat_mfld_lo,
            feat_btc_dom_lo=feat_btc_dom_lo,
+            # Manifold match audit — propagated through Order → Trade → DB
+            mfld_audit_id=audit_id,
+            mfld_market_id=manifold_result.market_id if manifold_result else None,
+            mfld_market_title=manifold_result.market_title if manifold_result else None,
+            mfld_market_url=manifold_result.market_url if manifold_result else None,
+            mfld_prob_raw=manifold_result.prob_raw if manifold_result else None,
+            mfld_prob_final=manifold_result.prob_final if manifold_result else None,
+            mfld_inverted=manifold_result.inverted if manifold_result else False,
+            mfld_match_score=manifold_result.match_score if manifold_result else None,
+            mfld_match_reason=manifold_result.match_reason if manifold_result else None,
+            mfld_match_status=manifold_result.status if manifold_result else None,
        )