feat(manifold): add persistent cooldowns to reduce redundant evaluations

The trading loop re-evaluated the same ~22 politics/tech markets every ~60s,
flooding manifold_match_audit with ~76k rows (~3,500 attempts/market) of which
none carried new information, making the metrics uninterpretable.

Add per-market persistent cooldowns:
- New table manifold_eval_cooldown (poly_market_id PK, last_evaluated_at,
  last_status, retry_after, cooldown_reason) created via run_migrations.
- bayesian.evaluate() consults the cooldown BEFORE calling the matcher and skips
  the call entirely while now() < retry_after — no matcher call, no audit row,
  no signal (equivalent to no_results). After a real evaluation it upserts the
  cooldown with a verdict-dependent backoff: no_results/low_score/outcome_mismatch/
  ambiguous_inversion -> 24h, conditional_market -> 7d, accepted -> 1h.
- manifold.py stays a pure client/matcher with no DB access.
- New db methods get_manifold_cooldown / upsert_manifold_cooldown.
- /api/metrics/manifold-matches summary gains unique_markets
  {evaluated, accepted, coverage_rate} for per-market (not per-attempt) coverage.

Matching logic, MANIFOLD_MATCHER_VERSION, MANIFOLD_LOGODDS_WEIGHT, edge/exposure
thresholds and existing audit rows are unchanged.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

bot/data/db.py

@@ -553,6 +553,46 @@ class Database:
                 poly_outcome_type, mfld_outcome_type, matcher_version,
             )
 
+    async def get_manifold_cooldown(self, poly_market_id: str) -> Optional[dict]:
+        """Return the cooldown row for a market, or None if no cooldown is recorded.
+
+        The caller decides whether the cooldown is still active by comparing
+        now() against retry_after (see bayesian.evaluate()).
+        """
+        async with self._pool.acquire() as conn:
+            row = await conn.fetchrow(
+                "SELECT poly_market_id, last_evaluated_at, last_status, "
+                "retry_after, cooldown_reason FROM manifold_eval_cooldown "
+                "WHERE poly_market_id = $1",
+                poly_market_id,
+            )
+        return dict(row) if row else None
+
+    async def upsert_manifold_cooldown(
+        self,
+        poly_market_id: str,
+        last_status: str,
+        retry_after,
+        cooldown_reason: Optional[str] = None,
+    ) -> None:
+        """Insert or refresh the cooldown for a market after a real evaluation.
+
+        last_evaluated_at is stamped server-side with now(); retry_after is the
+        caller-computed earliest re-evaluation time.
+        """
+        async with self._pool.acquire() as conn:
+            await conn.execute("""
+                INSERT INTO manifold_eval_cooldown (
+                    poly_market_id, last_evaluated_at, last_status,
+                    retry_after, cooldown_reason
+                ) VALUES ($1, now(), $2, $3, $4)
+                ON CONFLICT (poly_market_id) DO UPDATE SET
+                    last_evaluated_at = now(),
+                    last_status       = EXCLUDED.last_status,
+                    retry_after       = EXCLUDED.retry_after,
+                    cooldown_reason   = EXCLUDED.cooldown_reason
+            """, poly_market_id, last_status, retry_after, cooldown_reason)
+
     async def mark_manifold_audit_used(self, audit_id: str) -> None:
         async with self._pool.acquire() as conn:
             await conn.execute(
@@ -592,6 +632,15 @@ class Database:
                 WHERE matcher_version = 'legacy_pre_outcome_guard'
                   AND match_status = 'accepted'
             """)
+            unique_markets = await conn.fetchrow("""
+                SELECT
+                    COUNT(DISTINCT poly_market_id) AS evaluated,
+                    COUNT(DISTINCT poly_market_id) FILTER (
+                        WHERE match_status = 'accepted'
+                          AND matcher_version = $1
+                    ) AS accepted
+                FROM manifold_match_audit
+            """, MANIFOLD_MATCHER_VERSION)
             mfld_dominated = await conn.fetchrow("""
                 SELECT COUNT(*) AS cnt FROM trades
                 WHERE (excluded_from_metrics IS NOT TRUE)
@@ -627,6 +676,14 @@ class Database:
                         int(legacy["accepted_without_outcome_type"] or 0),
                 },
                 "trades_dominated_by_mfld": int(mfld_dominated["cnt"] or 0),
+                "unique_markets": {
+                    "evaluated": int(unique_markets["evaluated"] or 0),
+                    "accepted":  int(unique_markets["accepted"] or 0),
+                    "coverage_rate": (
+                        float(unique_markets["accepted"]) / float(unique_markets["evaluated"])
+                        if unique_markets["evaluated"] else None
+                    ),
+                },
             },
             "recent_matches": [dict(r) for r in rows],
         }

bot/data/schema.sql

@@ -291,3 +291,29 @@ CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS checkpoint_alerts (
     fired_at        TIMESTAMPTZ NOT NULL,
     last_fired_at   TIMESTAMPTZ
 );
+
+-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+-- Manifold evaluation cooldown — per-market backoff for the Manifold matcher
+--
+-- The trading loop re-evaluates the same ~stable set of politics/tech markets
+-- every cycle (~60s).  Most resolve to a stable terminal verdict (no Manifold
+-- coverage, low-score, outcome mismatch, conditional market) that will not change
+-- on the next cycle.  Re-querying them every minute floods manifold_match_audit
+-- with redundant rows and makes the metrics uninterpretable.
+--
+-- This table records, per poly_market_id, when the market was last evaluated and
+-- the earliest time it should be evaluated again (retry_after).  evaluate() in
+-- bot/strategy/bayesian.py consults it BEFORE calling the matcher and skips the
+-- call (and the audit write) entirely while now() < retry_after.
+--
+-- last_status / cooldown_reason are stored for observability only.
+-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS manifold_eval_cooldown (
+    poly_market_id    TEXT PRIMARY KEY,
+    last_evaluated_at TIMESTAMPTZ NOT NULL,
+    last_status       TEXT NOT NULL,
+    retry_after       TIMESTAMPTZ NOT NULL,
+    cooldown_reason   TEXT
+);
+
+CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_mfld_cooldown_retry ON manifold_eval_cooldown(retry_after);