feat(manifold): add matcher versioning to separate legacy accepted matches from v3_outcome_guard metrics

Add MANIFOLD_MATCHER_VERSION="v3_outcome_guard" tag persisted to
manifold_match_audit.matcher_version so metrics can isolate current-matcher
stats from pre-versioning records, whose accepted matches the outcome
guard would now reject.

- schema: add matcher_version column + index; idempotent startup backfill
  tagging NULL rows as legacy_pre_outcome_guard (no outcome types) or
  v2_outcome_guard_no_version (has outcome type, version not persisted)
- save_manifold_audit: write matcher_version on every new record
- get_manifold_matches: split summary into current_version / all_time /
  legacy; recent_matches now carry matcher_version

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

api/main.py

@@ -211,16 +211,22 @@ async def get_attribution():
 
 @app.get("/api/metrics/manifold-matches")
 async def get_manifold_matches():
-    """Manifold match audit — summary stats and recent match attempts.
+    """Manifold match audit — version-split summary and recent match attempts.
 
-    summary:
+    summary.current_version — stats for the active matcher (MANIFOLD_MATCHER_VERSION):
+      version          — the matcher version string
       total_accepted   — matches accepted (score >= 0.40, inversion unambiguous)
       total_rejected   — matches rejected (low score or ambiguous inversion)
       total_no_results — no Manifold market found or API error
       avg_match_score  — mean Jaccard score for accepted matches
-      trades_dominated_by_mfld — open trades where feat_mfld_lo is the largest signal
+      used_in_trade    — accepted matches that were actually executed
+    summary.all_time — accepted/rejected/no_results across every matcher version.
+    summary.legacy.accepted_without_outcome_type — pre-outcome-guard accepted
+      records that the current matcher would reject (not counted in current_version).
+    summary.trades_dominated_by_mfld — open trades where feat_mfld_lo is the largest signal.
 
-    recent_matches: last 50 rows from manifold_match_audit, newest first.
+    recent_matches: last 50 rows from manifold_match_audit, newest first, each
+      tagged with matcher_version.
       used_in_trade=True only when status='accepted' AND a trade was actually executed.
     """
     data = await db.get_manifold_matches(limit=50)

bot/data/db.py

@@ -4,6 +4,8 @@ import os
 from typing import Optional
 import asyncpg
 
+from bot.data.manifold import MANIFOLD_MATCHER_VERSION
+
 log = logging.getLogger(__name__)
 
 
@@ -532,6 +534,7 @@ class Database:
         match_status: str,
         poly_outcome_type: Optional[str] = None,
         mfld_outcome_type: Optional[str] = None,
+        matcher_version: Optional[str] = None,
     ) -> None:
         async with self._pool.acquire() as conn:
             await conn.execute("""
@@ -540,14 +543,14 @@ class Database:
                     mfld_market_id, mfld_market_title, mfld_market_url,
                     prob_raw, prob_final, inverted,
                     match_score, match_reason, match_status, used_in_trade,
-                    poly_outcome_type, mfld_outcome_type
-                ) VALUES ($1,$2,$3,$4,$5,$6,$7,$8,$9,$10,$11,$12,$13,FALSE,$14,$15)
+                    poly_outcome_type, mfld_outcome_type, matcher_version
+                ) VALUES ($1,$2,$3,$4,$5,$6,$7,$8,$9,$10,$11,$12,$13,FALSE,$14,$15,$16)
             """,
                 audit_id, poly_market_id, poly_question, search_query,
                 mfld_market_id, mfld_market_title, mfld_market_url,
                 prob_raw, prob_final, inverted,
                 match_score, match_reason, match_status,
-                poly_outcome_type, mfld_outcome_type,
+                poly_outcome_type, mfld_outcome_type, matcher_version,
             )
 
     async def mark_manifold_audit_used(self, audit_id: str) -> None:
@@ -558,14 +561,36 @@ class Database:
             )
 
     async def get_manifold_matches(self, limit: int = 50) -> dict:
+        """Manifold match audit, with summary split by matcher version.
+
+        The summary separates the current matcher (MANIFOLD_MATCHER_VERSION) from
+        all-time totals and from legacy pre-outcome-guard records, whose accepted
+        matches would now be rejected by the outcome-compatibility guard and so
+        must not be conflated with current-version stats.
+        """
         async with self._pool.acquire() as conn:
-            summary = await conn.fetchrow("""
+            current = await conn.fetchrow("""
                 SELECT
                     COUNT(*) FILTER (WHERE match_status = 'accepted')   AS total_accepted,
                     COUNT(*) FILTER (WHERE match_status = 'rejected')   AS total_rejected,
                     COUNT(*) FILTER (WHERE match_status = 'no_results') AS total_no_results,
-                    AVG(match_score) FILTER (WHERE match_status = 'accepted') AS avg_match_score
+                    AVG(match_score) FILTER (WHERE match_status = 'accepted') AS avg_match_score,
+                    COUNT(*) FILTER (WHERE used_in_trade = TRUE)        AS used_in_trade
                 FROM manifold_match_audit
+                WHERE matcher_version = $1
+            """, MANIFOLD_MATCHER_VERSION)
+            all_time = await conn.fetchrow("""
+                SELECT
+                    COUNT(*) FILTER (WHERE match_status = 'accepted')   AS total_accepted,
+                    COUNT(*) FILTER (WHERE match_status = 'rejected')   AS total_rejected,
+                    COUNT(*) FILTER (WHERE match_status = 'no_results') AS total_no_results
+                FROM manifold_match_audit
+            """)
+            legacy = await conn.fetchrow("""
+                SELECT COUNT(*) AS accepted_without_outcome_type
+                FROM manifold_match_audit
+                WHERE matcher_version = 'legacy_pre_outcome_guard'
+                  AND match_status = 'accepted'
             """)
             mfld_dominated = await conn.fetchrow("""
                 SELECT COUNT(*) AS cnt FROM trades
@@ -582,10 +607,23 @@ class Database:
             )
         return {
             "summary": {
-                "total_accepted":           int(summary["total_accepted"] or 0),
-                "total_rejected":           int(summary["total_rejected"] or 0),
-                "total_no_results":         int(summary["total_no_results"] or 0),
-                "avg_match_score":          _f(summary["avg_match_score"]),
+                "current_version": {
+                    "version":          MANIFOLD_MATCHER_VERSION,
+                    "total_accepted":   int(current["total_accepted"] or 0),
+                    "total_rejected":   int(current["total_rejected"] or 0),
+                    "total_no_results": int(current["total_no_results"] or 0),
+                    "avg_match_score":  _f(current["avg_match_score"]),
+                    "used_in_trade":    int(current["used_in_trade"] or 0),
+                },
+                "all_time": {
+                    "total_accepted":   int(all_time["total_accepted"] or 0),
+                    "total_rejected":   int(all_time["total_rejected"] or 0),
+                    "total_no_results": int(all_time["total_no_results"] or 0),
+                },
+                "legacy": {
+                    "accepted_without_outcome_type":
+                        int(legacy["accepted_without_outcome_type"] or 0),
+                },
                 "trades_dominated_by_mfld": int(mfld_dominated["cnt"] or 0),
             },
             "recent_matches": [dict(r) for r in rows],

bot/data/manifold.py

@@ -33,6 +33,12 @@ from typing import Optional
 
 import httpx
 
+# Version tag for every audit record this matcher produces. Persisted to
+# manifold_match_audit.matcher_version so metrics can isolate current-version
+# stats from legacy/pre-versioning records. Do NOT change this value once set;
+# bump to a new string only when matcher semantics change materially.
+MANIFOLD_MATCHER_VERSION = "v3_outcome_guard"
+
 MANIFOLD_API = "https://api.manifold.markets/v0"
 CACHE_TTL_SEC = 1800  # 30 minutes
 

bot/data/schema.sql

@@ -220,6 +220,36 @@ CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_mfld_audit_poly_mkt  ON manifold_match_audit(poly
 ALTER TABLE manifold_match_audit ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS poly_outcome_type TEXT;
 ALTER TABLE manifold_match_audit ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS mfld_outcome_type TEXT;
 
+-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+-- Matcher versioning — separate current-matcher metrics from legacy records
+--
+-- matcher_version tags each audit row with the matcher that produced it
+-- (MANIFOLD_MATCHER_VERSION in bot/data/manifold.py).  This lets the metrics
+-- endpoint isolate current_version stats from pre-versioning records, whose
+-- accepted matches would now be rejected by the outcome-compatibility guard.
+--
+-- Backfill is one-shot and idempotent (only touches NULL matcher_version rows):
+--   * rows with no outcome types  → 'legacy_pre_outcome_guard' (pre outcome-guard;
+--     accepted without any outcome-type validation)
+--   * rows with an outcome type   → 'v2_outcome_guard_no_version' (existed between
+--     the outcome-guard and this versioning; real version not persisted)
+-- We tag rather than infer the exact version that wasn't recorded.
+-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+ALTER TABLE manifold_match_audit ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS matcher_version TEXT;
+
+UPDATE manifold_match_audit
+SET matcher_version = 'legacy_pre_outcome_guard'
+WHERE matcher_version IS NULL
+  AND poly_outcome_type IS NULL
+  AND mfld_outcome_type IS NULL;
+
+UPDATE manifold_match_audit
+SET matcher_version = 'v2_outcome_guard_no_version'
+WHERE matcher_version IS NULL
+  AND (poly_outcome_type IS NOT NULL OR mfld_outcome_type IS NOT NULL);
+
+CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_mfld_audit_version ON manifold_match_audit(matcher_version);
+
 -- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 -- Metric exclusion — administrative closure flag
 --

bot/strategy/bayesian.py

@@ -19,7 +19,7 @@ from typing import Optional, TYPE_CHECKING
 
 from bot.data.polymarket import Market, market_family_key
 from bot.data.external import ExternalSignals
-from bot.data.manifold import ManifoldMatchResult
+from bot.data.manifold import MANIFOLD_MATCHER_VERSION, ManifoldMatchResult
 
 if TYPE_CHECKING:
     from bot.data.news import NewsClient
@@ -472,6 +472,7 @@ class BayesianStrategy:
                             match_status=manifold_result.status,
                             poly_outcome_type=manifold_result.poly_outcome_type,
                             mfld_outcome_type=manifold_result.mfld_outcome_type,
+                            matcher_version=MANIFOLD_MATCHER_VERSION,
                         )
                     except Exception as exc:
                         log.warning("Failed to save manifold audit: %s", exc)