feat(bot): 5-phase strategy upgrade — edge neto, families, GNews priority, regimes

Phase 1 — Edge neto real (paper.py, bayesian.py, risk/manager.py, db.py):
- Trade records now store edge_gross, edge_net, prior_prob, final_prob,
  mid_price, spread_estimate, commission, family_key
- edge_net = edge_gross - SPREAD_ESTIMATE(0.02) - COMMISSION_RATE(0.02)
  NOTE: both constants are heuristics, not exact Polymarket exchange costs
- Execution gate changed from edge_gross > MIN_EDGE to edge_net > regime_min_edge

Phase 2 — Market families (polymarket.py):
- market_family_key(market) groups related markets:
    texas-republican-2026, fed-april-2026, openai-2026, etc.
- At most 1 trade per family per cycle; occupied_families propagated via main.py
- Family key logged on every TRADE and SKIP line

Phase 3 — GNews priority (news.py, bayesian.py, main.py):
- NewsClient.get_freshness() returns 1.0/0.75/0.40/0.10 by cache age
- gnews_priority(market, news) = uncertainty × volume_score × freshness
- Politics markets sorted by priority DESC before eval so best markets get
  the 5-query/cycle GNews budget first

Phase 4 — Regime min-edge by category/horizon (bayesian.py):
- politics >60d → 0.12, 30-60d → 0.10, <30d → 0.08
- tech / crypto/finance → 0.10
- All thresholds applied to edge_net (not edge_gross)

Phase 5 — Observability (bayesian.py, main.py):
- Structured skip labels: SKIP_UNSUPPORTED, SKIP_NO_SIGNALS,
  SKIP_PRIOR_EXTREME, SKIP_FAMILY, SKIP_GNEWS_PRIORITY, SKIP_EDGE_NET
- TRADE lines now include family_key, edge_gross, edge_net, regime_min, days
- schema.sql: 8 new cols on trades, 7 new cols on signals (via ALTER TABLE IF NOT EXISTS)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

bot/executor/paper.py

@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ All trades are logged to PostgreSQL for metrics analysis.
 """
 import logging
 import uuid
-from dataclasses import dataclass
+from dataclasses import dataclass, field
 from datetime import datetime, UTC
 from typing import Optional
 
@@ -15,7 +15,10 @@ from bot.data.db import Database
 
 log = logging.getLogger(__name__)
 
-POLYMARKET_FEE = 0.02  # 2% fee on each trade
+# Polymarket taker fee used for paper simulation.
+# Also stored as commission in each Trade for audit purposes.
+# NOTE: this is a heuristic — see COMMISSION_RATE in bayesian.py for context.
+POLYMARKET_FEE = 0.02  # 2%
 
 
 @dataclass
@@ -32,11 +35,27 @@ class Trade:
     timestamp: datetime
     reasoning: str
     paper: bool = True
+    # ── Phase 1: edge neto audit fields ──────────────────────────────────────
+    # edge_gross: raw model edge before any cost deductions
+    # edge_net:   edge_gross - spread_estimate - commission/size_usdc
+    # Both are heuristic estimates — see schema.sql comment for details.
+    edge_gross: float = 0.0
+    edge_net: float = 0.0
+    prior_prob: float = 0.0      # market.yes_price clamped, before Bayesian update
+    final_prob: float = 0.0      # estimated probability after all signals
+    # mid_price: order-book midpoint when available; falls back to market.yes_price
+    mid_price: float = 0.0
+    spread_estimate: float = 0.02
+    commission: float = 0.0      # = POLYMARKET_FEE * size_usdc
+    # ── Phase 2: market family ────────────────────────────────────────────────
+    family_key: str = ""
 
     def __str__(self) -> str:
         return (
             f"[PAPER] {self.direction} {self.shares:.1f} shares @ {self.entry_price:.3f} "
-            f"= ${self.net_cost:.2f} (fee ${self.fee_usdc:.2f}) | {self.question[:40]}"
+            f"= ${self.net_cost:.2f} (fee ${self.fee_usdc:.2f}) "
+            f"edge_net={self.edge_net:+.3f} family={self.family_key} "
+            f"| {self.question[:40]}"
         )
 
 
@@ -102,6 +121,10 @@ class PaperExecutor:
         net_cost = order.size_usdc + fee
         shares = order.size_usdc / entry_price
 
+        # commission mirrors the heuristic COMMISSION_RATE applied in bayesian.py
+        # when computing edge_net.  Stored for audit: confirms cost assumption held.
+        commission = order.size_usdc * POLYMARKET_FEE  # = fee_usdc at current rate
+
         trade = Trade(
             id=str(uuid.uuid4()),
             market_id=order.market_id,
@@ -115,6 +138,16 @@ class PaperExecutor:
             timestamp=datetime.now(UTC),
             reasoning=order.reasoning,
             paper=True,
+            # Phase 1 audit fields
+            edge_gross=order.edge_gross,
+            edge_net=order.edge_net,
+            prior_prob=order.prior_prob,
+            final_prob=order.final_prob,
+            mid_price=order.mid_price,
+            spread_estimate=order.spread_estimate,
+            commission=commission,
+            # Phase 2 family
+            family_key=order.family_key,
         )
 
         # Update paper portfolio