feat: initial commit — polymarket-bot source + CI/CD pipeline

2026-04-13 16:05:45 +00:00
commit 4fda34df3b
23 changed files with 1436 additions and 0 deletions
@@ -0,0 +1,99 @@
+"""
+External data signals for Bayesian probability estimation.
+Sources: CoinGecko (crypto prices), Alternative.me (Fear&Greed), Polymarket trends
+"""
+import logging
+from dataclasses import dataclass
+import httpx
+
+log = logging.getLogger(__name__)
+
+
+@dataclass
+class ExternalSignals:
+    btc_price: float = 0.0
+    btc_change_24h: float = 0.0       # % change
+    eth_price: float = 0.0
+    eth_change_24h: float = 0.0
+    btc_dominance: float = 50.0       # BTC market dominance %
+    fear_greed_index: int = 50        # 0=extreme fear, 100=extreme greed
+    fear_greed_label: str = "neutral"
+    total_market_cap_change: float = 0.0
+    valid: bool = False
+
+
+class ExternalDataClient:
+    """Fetches external market signals used to calibrate probability estimates."""
+
+    def __init__(self) -> None:
+        self._client = httpx.AsyncClient(timeout=15)
+
+    async def get_all_signals(self) -> ExternalSignals:
+        """Aggregate all external signals. Returns best-effort (partial ok)."""
+        signals = ExternalSignals()
+
+        try:
+            prices = await self._get_crypto_prices()
+            signals.btc_price = prices.get("bitcoin", {}).get("usd", 0)
+            signals.btc_change_24h = prices.get("bitcoin", {}).get("usd_24h_change", 0)
+            signals.eth_price = prices.get("ethereum", {}).get("usd", 0)
+            signals.eth_change_24h = prices.get("ethereum", {}).get("usd_24h_change", 0)
+        except Exception as e:
+            log.warning("CoinGecko fetch failed: %s", e)
+
+        try:
+            fg = await self._get_fear_greed()
+            signals.fear_greed_index = fg["value"]
+            signals.fear_greed_label = fg["label"]
+        except Exception as e:
+            log.warning("Fear&Greed fetch failed: %s", e)
+
+        try:
+            global_data = await self._get_global_market()
+            signals.btc_dominance = global_data.get("btc_dominance", 50)
+            signals.total_market_cap_change = global_data.get("market_cap_change_24h", 0)
+        except Exception as e:
+            log.warning("Global market data fetch failed: %s", e)
+
+        signals.valid = signals.btc_price > 0
+        log.info(
+            "External signals: BTC=$%.0f (%.1f%%) F&G=%d/%s",
+            signals.btc_price,
+            signals.btc_change_24h,
+            signals.fear_greed_index,
+            signals.fear_greed_label,
+        )
+        return signals
+
+    async def _get_crypto_prices(self) -> dict:
+        resp = await self._client.get(
+            "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/simple/price",
+            params={
+                "ids": "bitcoin,ethereum",
+                "vs_currencies": "usd",
+                "include_24hr_change": True,
+            },
+        )
+        resp.raise_for_status()
+        return resp.json()
+
+    async def _get_fear_greed(self) -> dict:
+        resp = await self._client.get("https://api.alternative.me/fng/?limit=1")
+        resp.raise_for_status()
+        data = resp.json()["data"][0]
+        return {
+            "value": int(data["value"]),
+            "label": data["value_classification"],
+        }
+
+    async def _get_global_market(self) -> dict:
+        resp = await self._client.get("https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/global")
+        resp.raise_for_status()
+        data = resp.json()["data"]
+        return {
+            "btc_dominance": data.get("market_cap_percentage", {}).get("btc", 50),
+            "market_cap_change_24h": data.get("market_cap_change_percentage_24h_usd", 0),
+        }
+
+    async def close(self) -> None:
+        await self._client.aclose()