fix(strategy): gate BTC-dominance signal behind is_non_price like momentum and fear-greed

Phase 3 excluded momentum and Fear & Greed from politics/tech/events
markets; Phase 4 fixed ticker detection.  But the BTC-dominance signal was
still applied to non-price markets that legitimately mention a ticker
('Will the ETH ETF be approved?'), despite having no demonstrated causality
for non-price outcomes.  Reuse the existing is_non_price gate so the
contribution stays 0.0 -> feat_btc_dom_lo = 0.0 for those markets.

Price-market behavior unchanged: ETH/altcoin/general-crypto markets keep
the +/-0.03 dominance adjustment.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

bot/strategy/bayesian.py

@@ -483,8 +483,13 @@ class BayesianStrategy:
             _fg_contribution = fg_adj if is_price_above else -fg_adj
             adjustments.append(_fg_contribution)
 
-        # Signal 3: BTC dominance — hurts altcoins when high
+        # Signal 3: BTC dominance — hurts altcoins when high (price markets only)
+        # Like momentum and Fear & Greed above: no demonstrated causality for
+        # politics/tech/events, even when they legitimately mention a ticker
+        # ("Will the ETH ETF be approved?").  For non-price markets the
+        # contribution stays 0.0 → feat_btc_dom_lo = 0.0.
         _btc_dom_contribution = 0.0
+        if not is_non_price:
             if (is_eth or is_altcoin or is_general_crypto) and ext.btc_dominance > 55:
                 _btc_dom_contribution = -0.03 if is_price_above else 0.03
                 adjustments.append(_btc_dom_contribution)

tests/test_bayesian_btc_dom_gate.py

@@ -0,0 +1,130 @@
+"""
+Tests for FASE 5 — BTC-dominance signal must not apply to non-price markets.
+
+FASE 3 gated momentum and Fear & Greed behind is_non_price (politics / tech /
+events); FASE 4 fixed ticker detection so non-crypto questions no longer flag
+crypto assets by accident.  But a non-price market that LEGITIMATELY mentions
+a ticker ("Will the ETH ETF be approved?") still armed the BTC-dominance
+signal, which has no demonstrated causality for non-price outcomes.  FASE 5
+applies the same is_non_price gate to that signal.
+
+Note: the dominance signal only fires for is_eth / is_altcoin /
+is_general_crypto markets — a pure-BTC question never receives it, so the
+pro-Bitcoin test below is a regression guard rather than a gate exercise;
+the ETH-ETF test is the one that fails without the gate.
+
+Same caplog technique as test_bayesian_asset_detection.py: btc_dom_lo is
+parsed from the structured audit log, with btc_dominance=65 (>55) so the
+signal fires whenever it is allowed to.
+"""
+import asyncio
+import logging
+import re
+
+import pytest
+
+from bot.data.external import ExternalSignals
+from bot.data.polymarket import Market
+from bot.strategy.bayesian import BayesianStrategy
+
+BTC_DOM_RE = re.compile(r"btc_dom_lo=([+-]\d+\.\d+)")
+
+
+def _make_market(question: str, category: str) -> Market:
+    return Market(
+        id="mkt-test-1",
+        condition_id="cond-test-1",
+        question=question,
+        yes_token_id="yes-tok",
+        no_token_id="no-tok",
+        yes_price=0.50,
+        no_price=0.50,
+        volume_24h=50_000.0,
+        end_date="2026-07-15T00:00:00Z",
+        active=True,
+        category=category,
+    )
+
+
+def _make_signals() -> ExternalSignals:
+    # btc_dominance=65 (>55) arms the dominance signal wherever it is allowed.
+    # Momentum kept below the 2% threshold so price-market tests isolate the
+    # dominance contribution.
+    return ExternalSignals(
+        btc_price=100_000.0,
+        btc_change_24h=1.0,
+        eth_price=4_000.0,
+        eth_change_24h=1.0,
+        btc_dominance=65.0,
+        fear_greed_index=50,
+        fear_greed_label="neutral",
+        total_market_cap_change=1.0,
+        valid=True,
+    )
+
+
+def _evaluate(question: str, category: str, caplog) -> tuple[float, str]:
+    """Run evaluate() and return (btc_dom_lo, full_log) from the audit log."""
+    strategy = BayesianStrategy(news=None, manifold=None, db=None)
+    market = _make_market(question, category)
+    with caplog.at_level(logging.INFO, logger="bot.strategy.bayesian"):
+        asyncio.run(
+            strategy.evaluate(market, _make_signals(), occupied_families=set())
+        )
+    full_log = "\n".join(r.getMessage() for r in caplog.records)
+    for record in caplog.records:
+        m = BTC_DOM_RE.search(record.getMessage())
+        if m:
+            return float(m.group(1)), full_log
+    pytest.fail(
+        "No SKIP_EDGE_NET/TRADE log line with btc_dom_lo found; "
+        f"got: {[r.getMessage() for r in caplog.records]}"
+    )
+
+
+# ── Non-price markets: gate must zero the signal ─────────────────────────────
+
+def test_politics_market_mentioning_eth_gets_no_btc_dom(caplog):
+    """Legitimate ETH mention in a politics market → btc_dom_lo == 0.0."""
+    btc_dom_lo, full_log = _evaluate(
+        "Will the ETH ETF be approved?", "politics", caplog
+    )
+    assert btc_dom_lo == 0.0
+    assert "BTC dom" not in full_log
+
+def test_politics_market_mentioning_bitcoin_gets_no_btc_dom(caplog):
+    """Legitimate Bitcoin mention in a politics market → btc_dom_lo == 0.0."""
+    btc_dom_lo, full_log = _evaluate(
+        "Will a pro-Bitcoin candidate win the election?", "politics", caplog
+    )
+    assert btc_dom_lo == 0.0
+    assert "BTC dom" not in full_log
+
+def test_tech_and_events_markets_get_no_btc_dom(caplog):
+    for category in ("tech", "events"):
+        caplog.clear()
+        btc_dom_lo, full_log = _evaluate(
+            "Will the ETH foundation launch the product?", category, caplog
+        )
+        assert btc_dom_lo == 0.0, f"BTC dominance applied to {category} market"
+        assert "BTC dom" not in full_log
+
+
+# ── Price markets: current behavior preserved ───────────────────────────────
+
+def test_eth_price_market_keeps_btc_dom(caplog):
+    """ETH price market with dominance 65 → signal fires as before."""
+    btc_dom_lo, full_log = _evaluate(
+        "Will ETH be above $5000?", "crypto/finance", caplog
+    )
+    # 'above' → is_price_above, dominance 65 > 55 → -0.03 → -0.06 log-odds
+    assert btc_dom_lo == pytest.approx(-0.06, abs=1e-4)
+    assert "BTC dom: 65.0% (high → alt pressure)" in full_log
+
+def test_altcoin_price_market_keeps_btc_dom(caplog):
+    """SOL price market with dominance 65 → signal fires as before."""
+    btc_dom_lo, full_log = _evaluate(
+        "Will SOL reach $200?", "crypto/finance", caplog
+    )
+    assert btc_dom_lo == pytest.approx(-0.06, abs=1e-4)
+    assert "BTC dom: 65.0% (high → alt pressure)" in full_log