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fix(strategy): gate BTC-dominance signal behind is_non_price like momentum and fear-greed
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Phase 3 excluded momentum and Fear & Greed from politics/tech/events
markets; Phase 4 fixed ticker detection.  But the BTC-dominance signal was
still applied to non-price markets that legitimately mention a ticker
('Will the ETH ETF be approved?'), despite having no demonstrated causality
for non-price outcomes.  Reuse the existing is_non_price gate so the
contribution stays 0.0 -> feat_btc_dom_lo = 0.0 for those markets.

Price-market behavior unchanged: ETH/altcoin/general-crypto markets keep
the +/-0.03 dominance adjustment.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
chemavx
2026-06-11 16:42:59 +00:00
co-authored by Claude Fable 5
parent f5ac302a86
commit 4867141c4b
2 changed files with 144 additions and 9 deletions
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bot/strategy/bayesian.py
+14 -9
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@@ -483,16 +483,21 @@ class BayesianStrategy:
_fg_contribution = fg_adj if is_price_above else -fg_adj
adjustments.append(_fg_contribution)
# Signal 3: BTC dominance — hurts altcoins when high
# Signal 3: BTC dominance — hurts altcoins when high (price markets only)
# Like momentum and Fear & Greed above: no demonstrated causality for
# politics/tech/events, even when they legitimately mention a ticker
# ("Will the ETH ETF be approved?"). For non-price markets the
# contribution stays 0.0 → feat_btc_dom_lo = 0.0.
_btc_dom_contribution = 0.0
if (is_eth or is_altcoin or is_general_crypto) and ext.btc_dominance > 55:
_btc_dom_contribution = -0.03 if is_price_above else 0.03
adjustments.append(_btc_dom_contribution)
sources.append(f"BTC dom: {ext.btc_dominance:.1f}% (high → alt pressure)")
elif (is_eth or is_altcoin or is_general_crypto) and ext.btc_dominance < 45:
_btc_dom_contribution = 0.03 if is_price_above else -0.03
adjustments.append(_btc_dom_contribution)
sources.append(f"BTC dom: {ext.btc_dominance:.1f}% (low → alt season)")
if not is_non_price:
if (is_eth or is_altcoin or is_general_crypto) and ext.btc_dominance > 55:
_btc_dom_contribution = -0.03 if is_price_above else 0.03
adjustments.append(_btc_dom_contribution)
sources.append(f"BTC dom: {ext.btc_dominance:.1f}% (high → alt pressure)")
elif (is_eth or is_altcoin or is_general_crypto) and ext.btc_dominance < 45:
_btc_dom_contribution = 0.03 if is_price_above else -0.03
adjustments.append(_btc_dom_contribution)
sources.append(f"BTC dom: {ext.btc_dominance:.1f}% (low → alt season)")
# Signal 4: GNews sentiment (politics only, budget-gated)
# Phase 3: caller has pre-sorted markets by gnews_priority() so the