feat(metrics): real Sharpe ratio from daily PnL curve with minimum-sample gate

sharpe_ratio was hardcoded to 0.0 in MetricsTracker and exposed as
'or 0' in /api/summary. With only 1 resolved trade (~40 flat days plus
one +299 jump) any computed Sharpe is statistically meaningless, so:

- bot/metrics/sharpe.py: annualized Sharpe (sqrt(365)) from daily
  total_pnl closes, normalized by bankroll; sharpe_with_gate() returns
  None + status until >=30 days observed AND >=10 resolved trades.
- Database.get_daily_pnl_closes(): last metrics_daily snapshot per UTC
  day, oldest first — the return series input.
- MetricsTracker: stores the real (gated) Sharpe in the snapshot, NULL
  below the gate; log line now includes sharpe.
- /api/summary: live Sharpe + sharpe_status/days_observed/min_* fields
  explaining why it is null; resolved_count now live from COUNT(*).
- promotion_ready: requires resolved>=10, days>=30, and non-null
  win_rate/calibration/sharpe plus existing thresholds — a single lucky
  resolved trade can no longer promote.
- Dashboard Sharpe card shows the insufficient-sample explanation when
  null instead of a bare em dash.

Tests: 13 new in tests/test_sharpe_gate.py (formula, gate, API contract,
tracker snapshot); verified failing pre-fix. Suite: 62 passed.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

api/main.py

@@ -12,6 +12,11 @@ from fastapi.middleware.cors import CORSMiddleware
 
 from bot.data.db import Database
 from bot.executor.paper import cash_available
+from bot.metrics.sharpe import (
+    MIN_DAYS_OBSERVED,
+    MIN_RESOLVED_TRADES,
+    sharpe_with_gate,
+)
 
 # Phase 6 format (Phase 6+): values already in log-odds space.
 # "fg_lo=+0.1200 mom_lo=+0.0000 news_lo=+0.0000 mfld_lo=-0.7483 btc_dom_lo=+0.0000"
@@ -280,23 +285,40 @@ async def get_summary():
     PnL and performance metrics come from the latest metrics_daily snapshot,
     which is written by the bot every cycle via MetricsTracker.update_daily_summary().
     After Fix 3, that snapshot is also DB-computed — not dependent on pod restarts.
+    sharpe_ratio is the exception: it is recomputed live here from the daily
+    PnL-close series (same sharpe_with_gate the tracker uses), so the
+    explanation fields (sharpe_status, days_observed) always match the value.
     """
-    latest_metrics, counts, position_data, inverted, legacy_count = await asyncio.gather(
+    latest_metrics, counts, position_data, inverted, legacy_count, daily_closes = (
+        await asyncio.gather(
             db.get_metrics_history(days=1),
             db.compute_metrics_from_db(),
             db.get_open_position_data(),
             db.get_recently_closed_inverted(hours=24),
             db.get_legacy_incomplete_count(),
+            db.get_daily_pnl_closes(),
+        )
     )
 
     latest = latest_metrics[0] if latest_metrics else {}
     paper_bankroll = float(os.getenv("PAPER_BANKROLL", "10000"))
     total_trades = int(counts["total_trades"] or 0)
+    resolved_count = int(counts.get("resolved_count") or 0)
     # Same source PaperExecutor.initialize() uses to reconstruct cash:
     # total_net_cost_open = SUM(net_cost) over open trades, uncapped.
     _, total_net_cost_open = position_data
     total_deployed = total_net_cost_open
 
+    # Sharpe: computed live from the daily PnL curve (same function the
+    # tracker uses for the snapshot). None + status while the minimum-sample
+    # gate (>=30 days observed, >=10 resolved trades) is not met — a Sharpe
+    # over 1 resolved trade is statistically meaningless.
+    days_observed = len(daily_closes)
+    sharpe, sharpe_status = sharpe_with_gate(daily_closes, paper_bankroll, resolved_count)
+
+    win_rate = latest.get("win_rate")
+    calibration = latest.get("calibration_score")
+
     return {
         # ── Portfolio state (live from DB) ──────────────────────────────────
         "paper_mode":              os.getenv("PAPER_MODE", "true") == "true",
@@ -319,25 +341,35 @@ async def get_summary():
         "realized_pnl":       latest.get("realized_pnl") or 0,
         "total_pnl":          latest.get("total_pnl") or 0,
 
-        # ── Performance metrics (from latest metrics_daily snapshot) ─────────
+        # ── Performance metrics ──────────────────────────────────────────────
         # win_rate: fraction of resolved closed trades where close_pnl > 0.
         #   null if fewer than 5 resolved trades. Source: closed+resolved trades.
-        # sharpe_ratio: 0.0 — requires daily-return time series (not yet tracked).
+        # sharpe_ratio: annualized Sharpe of the daily total_pnl curve, computed
+        #   live from metrics_daily. null while the minimum-sample gate fails
+        #   (sharpe_status explains why). Source: bot/metrics/sharpe.py.
         # calibration_score: 1 − Brier score on resolved trades (higher = better).
         #   null if fewer than 10 resolved trades. Source: closed+resolved trades.
-        "win_rate":           latest.get("win_rate"),         # null if < 5 resolved
-        "sharpe_ratio":       latest.get("sharpe_ratio") or 0,  # 0.0 until tracked
-        "calibration_score":  latest.get("calibration_score"),  # null if < 10 resolved
+        "win_rate":           win_rate,                       # null if < 5 resolved
+        "sharpe_ratio":       sharpe,                         # null if gate fails
+        "sharpe_status":      sharpe_status,  # ok | insufficient_sample | zero_variance
+        "days_observed":      days_observed,
+        "min_days_required":  MIN_DAYS_OBSERVED,
+        "min_resolved_required": MIN_RESOLVED_TRADES,
+        "calibration_score":  calibration,                    # null if < 10 resolved
 
-        # ── Counters from snapshot ───────────────────────────────────────────
-        "resolved_count":     latest.get("resolved_count") or 0,
+        # ── Counters (live from DB) ──────────────────────────────────────────
+        "resolved_count":     resolved_count,
 
         # ── Promotion gate ───────────────────────────────────────────────────
-        # All thresholds must pass; null metrics count as not-ready.
+        # Never promote on a tiny sample: requires the resolved/days minimums
+        # AND non-null metrics AND all thresholds. A single lucky resolved
+        # trade must not flip this to true.
         "promotion_ready": (
-            (latest.get("sharpe_ratio") or 0) >= 0.5
-            and (latest.get("win_rate") or 0) >= 0.52
-            and (latest.get("calibration_score") or 0) >= 0.7
+            resolved_count >= MIN_RESOLVED_TRADES
+            and days_observed >= MIN_DAYS_OBSERVED
+            and win_rate is not None and win_rate >= 0.52
+            and calibration is not None and calibration >= 0.7
+            and sharpe is not None and sharpe >= 0.5
             and total_trades >= 50
         ),
     }

bot/data/db.py

@@ -348,6 +348,24 @@ class Database:
             )
             return [dict(r) for r in rows]
 
+    async def get_daily_pnl_closes(self) -> list[float]:
+        """Return the closing total_pnl of every observed UTC day, oldest first.
+
+        One value per calendar day with at least one metrics_daily snapshot
+        (the day's last snapshot, same collapse rule as get_metrics_history).
+        This is the input series for the Sharpe ratio: len() = days observed,
+        consecutive deltas = daily PnL changes.
+        """
+        async with self._pool.acquire() as conn:
+            rows = await conn.fetch(
+                """
+                SELECT DISTINCT ON (timestamp::date) total_pnl
+                FROM metrics_daily
+                ORDER BY timestamp::date ASC, timestamp DESC
+                """
+            )
+            return [float(r["total_pnl"] or 0) for r in rows]
+
     async def backfill_feature_columns(self) -> int:
         """Back-populate feat_*_lo for trades created before Phase 6.
 

bot/metrics/sharpe.py

@@ -0,0 +1,79 @@
+"""
+Sharpe ratio from the paper portfolio's daily PnL curve, with a minimum-sample gate.
+
+The input series is the closing total_pnl of each observed UTC day
+(Database.get_daily_pnl_closes). Daily returns are PnL deltas normalized by
+the paper bankroll:
+
+    r_t = (pnl_t − pnl_{t−1}) / bankroll
+
+Sharpe = mean(r) / sample_std(r) × √365, annualized — prediction markets
+resolve every calendar day, so 365 is used instead of 252 trading days.
+Risk-free rate is taken as 0.
+
+Gate: with a tiny sample (e.g. 1 resolved trade over a flat curve plus one
++299 jump) any Sharpe value is statistically meaningless — artificially huge
+or tiny depending on where the jump lands. So no numeric Sharpe is exposed
+until BOTH minimums are met:
+
+    days observed     >= MIN_DAYS_OBSERVED   (30)
+    resolved trades   >= MIN_RESOLVED_TRADES (10)
+
+Below either minimum the value is None with status "insufficient_sample".
+A perfectly flat curve (zero variance) also yields None ("zero_variance"):
+Sharpe is undefined there, not infinite.
+"""
+from statistics import mean, stdev
+from typing import Optional
+
+MIN_DAYS_OBSERVED = 30
+MIN_RESOLVED_TRADES = 10
+ANNUALIZATION_DAYS = 365
+
+SHARPE_OK = "ok"
+SHARPE_INSUFFICIENT = "insufficient_sample"
+SHARPE_ZERO_VARIANCE = "zero_variance"
+
+
+def daily_returns(daily_pnl_closes: list[float], bankroll: float) -> list[float]:
+    """Bankroll-normalized day-over-day returns from a daily PnL-close series."""
+    return [
+        (curr - prev) / bankroll
+        for prev, curr in zip(daily_pnl_closes, daily_pnl_closes[1:])
+    ]
+
+
+def compute_sharpe(daily_pnl_closes: list[float], bankroll: float) -> Optional[float]:
+    """Annualized Sharpe of the daily PnL curve, or None if undefined.
+
+    None when there are fewer than 2 returns (need 3+ daily closes) or the
+    return series has zero variance. No sample-size gate here — see
+    sharpe_with_gate() for the exposed value.
+    """
+    returns = daily_returns(daily_pnl_closes, bankroll)
+    if len(returns) < 2:
+        return None
+    sd = stdev(returns)
+    if sd == 0:
+        return None
+    return mean(returns) / sd * ANNUALIZATION_DAYS ** 0.5
+
+
+def sharpe_with_gate(
+    daily_pnl_closes: list[float],
+    bankroll: float,
+    resolved_count: int,
+) -> tuple[Optional[float], str]:
+    """Return (sharpe, status) applying the minimum-sample gate.
+
+    status: "ok"                  — sharpe is a meaningful float
+            "insufficient_sample" — sample below minimums, sharpe is None
+            "zero_variance"       — sample OK but flat curve, sharpe is None
+    """
+    days_observed = len(daily_pnl_closes)
+    if days_observed < MIN_DAYS_OBSERVED or resolved_count < MIN_RESOLVED_TRADES:
+        return None, SHARPE_INSUFFICIENT
+    sharpe = compute_sharpe(daily_pnl_closes, bankroll)
+    if sharpe is None:
+        return None, SHARPE_ZERO_VARIANCE
+    return sharpe, SHARPE_OK

bot/metrics/tracker.py

@@ -15,12 +15,16 @@ win_rate            Fraction of resolved closed trades with close_pnl > 0.
                     NULL if fewer than 5 resolved trades.
 calibration_score   1 − AVG((final_prob − resolution)²) on resolved trades.
                     Brier score (higher = better calibration). NULL if < 10 resolved.
-sharpe_ratio        0.0 — requires a daily-return time series, not yet tracked.
+sharpe_ratio        Annualized Sharpe of the daily total_pnl curve (see
+                    bot/metrics/sharpe.py). NULL until the sample gate passes:
+                    >= 30 days observed AND >= 10 resolved trades.
 """
 import logging
+import os
 from datetime import datetime, UTC
 
 from bot.data.db import Database
+from bot.metrics.sharpe import sharpe_with_gate
 
 log = logging.getLogger(__name__)
 
@@ -61,6 +65,12 @@ class MetricsTracker:
 
         avg_edge = total_pnl / total_deployed if total_deployed > 0 else 0.0
 
+        # Sharpe: real value from the daily PnL curve, NULL while the sample
+        # gate (>=30 days observed, >=10 resolved) is not met.
+        bankroll = float(os.getenv("PAPER_BANKROLL", "10000"))
+        daily_closes = await self._db.get_daily_pnl_closes()
+        sharpe, sharpe_status = sharpe_with_gate(daily_closes, bankroll, resolved)
+
         metrics = {
             "timestamp":          datetime.now(UTC),
             "total_trades":       int(raw["total_trades"]),
@@ -74,7 +84,7 @@ class MetricsTracker:
             "total_pnl":          total_pnl,
             "win_rate":           win_rate,
             "avg_edge":           avg_edge,
-            "sharpe_ratio":       0.0,   # requires daily-return series (not yet tracked)
+            "sharpe_ratio":       sharpe,   # NULL until sample gate passes
             "calibration_score":  calibration,
             "paper_mode":         True,
         }
@@ -83,9 +93,10 @@ class MetricsTracker:
         log.info(
             "Daily metrics | trades=%d (open=%d closed=%d resolved=%d) | "
             "unrealized=$%.2f realized=$%.2f total=$%.2f | "
-            "win_rate=%s calibration=%s",
+            "win_rate=%s calibration=%s sharpe=%s",
             metrics["total_trades"], open_count, closed_count, resolved,
             unrealized, realized, total_pnl,
             f"{win_rate:.1%}" if win_rate is not None else "n/a (<5)",
             f"{calibration:.3f}" if calibration is not None else "n/a (<10)",
+            f"{sharpe:.2f}" if sharpe is not None else f"n/a ({sharpe_status})",
         )

dashboard/src/App.jsx

@@ -200,8 +200,12 @@ export default function App() {
         <MetricCard
           title="Sharpe"
           value={fmt(summary.sharpe_ratio)}
-          subtitle="Objetivo ≥ 0.5"
-          progress={Math.min(1, summary.sharpe_ratio / 2)}
+          subtitle={
+            summary.sharpe_ratio == null
+              ? `Muestra insuficiente: ${summary.resolved_count}/${summary.min_resolved_required} resueltos, ${summary.days_observed}/${summary.min_days_required} días`
+              : 'Objetivo ≥ 0.5'
+          }
+          progress={summary.sharpe_ratio == null ? 0 : Math.min(1, summary.sharpe_ratio / 2)}
           progressColor={summary.sharpe_ratio >= 0.5 ? 'var(--green)' : 'var(--amber)'}
         />
         <MetricCard

tests/test_api_summary_consistency.py

@@ -44,6 +44,7 @@ class FakeDB:
             "total_trades": self._total,
             "open_count": self._open,
             "closed_count": self._total - self._open,
+            "resolved_count": 0,
         }
 
     async def get_recently_closed_inverted(self, hours=24):
@@ -52,6 +53,9 @@ class FakeDB:
     async def get_legacy_incomplete_count(self):
         return 0
 
+    async def get_daily_pnl_closes(self):
+        return []
+
 
 def _run(db: FakeDB, monkeypatch) -> tuple[dict, PaperExecutor]:
     monkeypatch.setattr(api_main, "db", db)

tests/test_sharpe_gate.py

@@ -0,0 +1,242 @@
+"""
+Tests for the real Sharpe ratio with minimum-sample gate.
+
+Regression: sharpe_ratio was hardcoded to 0.0 in MetricsTracker and exposed
+as `latest.get("sharpe_ratio") or 0` in /api/summary, and promotion_ready
+could in principle flip on a statistically meaningless sample (e.g. 1
+resolved trade over ~40 days of flat PnL plus a single +299 jump).
+
+Fix: bot/metrics/sharpe.py computes an annualized Sharpe from the daily
+total_pnl close series, gated to None ("insufficient_sample") below 30 days
+observed / 10 resolved trades. /api/summary exposes the value plus an
+explanation (sharpe_status, days_observed, min_* fields), and
+promotion_ready additionally requires the sample minimums and non-null
+metrics.
+"""
+import asyncio
+from statistics import mean, stdev
+
+import pytest
+
+import api.main as api_main
+from bot.metrics.sharpe import (
+    MIN_DAYS_OBSERVED,
+    MIN_RESOLVED_TRADES,
+    SHARPE_INSUFFICIENT,
+    SHARPE_OK,
+    SHARPE_ZERO_VARIANCE,
+    compute_sharpe,
+    daily_returns,
+    sharpe_with_gate,
+)
+from bot.metrics.tracker import MetricsTracker
+
+
+BANKROLL = 10_000.0
+
+
+def _closes_from_deltas(deltas: list[float], start: float = 0.0) -> list[float]:
+    closes = [start]
+    for d in deltas:
+        closes.append(closes[-1] + d)
+    return closes
+
+
+# ── Pure computation ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+def test_daily_returns_are_bankroll_normalized_deltas():
+    closes = [0.0, 100.0, 50.0, 50.0]
+    assert daily_returns(closes, BANKROLL) == pytest.approx([0.01, -0.005, 0.0])
+
+
+def test_compute_sharpe_matches_manual_formula():
+    deltas = [10.0, 14.0, 8.0, 12.0, 6.0, 13.0, 9.0]
+    closes = _closes_from_deltas(deltas)
+    rets = [d / BANKROLL for d in deltas]
+    expected = mean(rets) / stdev(rets) * 365 ** 0.5
+    assert compute_sharpe(closes, BANKROLL) == pytest.approx(expected)
+    assert compute_sharpe(closes, BANKROLL) > 0
+
+
+def test_compute_sharpe_undefined_cases_return_none():
+    assert compute_sharpe([], BANKROLL) is None
+    assert compute_sharpe([0.0], BANKROLL) is None
+    assert compute_sharpe([0.0, 50.0], BANKROLL) is None      # only 1 return
+    assert compute_sharpe([0.0] * 40, BANKROLL) is None        # zero variance
+
+
+# ── Minimum-sample gate ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+def test_gate_blocks_current_situation_one_resolved_trade():
+    """~40 flat days plus a single +299 jump, 1 resolved trade → no Sharpe."""
+    closes = [0.0] * 35 + [299.06] * 5
+    sharpe, status = sharpe_with_gate(closes, BANKROLL, resolved_count=1)
+    assert sharpe is None
+    assert status == SHARPE_INSUFFICIENT
+    # The raw (ungated) value would exist and be wildly misleading:
+    assert compute_sharpe(closes, BANKROLL) is not None
+
+
+def test_gate_blocks_too_few_days_even_with_enough_resolved():
+    closes = _closes_from_deltas([10.0, -5.0] * 10)  # 21 days < 30
+    sharpe, status = sharpe_with_gate(closes, BANKROLL, resolved_count=15)
+    assert sharpe is None
+    assert status == SHARPE_INSUFFICIENT
+
+
+def test_gate_passes_with_sufficient_sample():
+    deltas = [10.0, 14.0, 8.0, 12.0, 6.0] * 8  # 40 returns → 41 days
+    closes = _closes_from_deltas(deltas)
+    sharpe, status = sharpe_with_gate(closes, BANKROLL, resolved_count=MIN_RESOLVED_TRADES)
+    assert status == SHARPE_OK
+    assert sharpe == pytest.approx(compute_sharpe(closes, BANKROLL))
+
+
+def test_gate_flat_curve_with_sufficient_sample_is_zero_variance():
+    sharpe, status = sharpe_with_gate([0.0] * 40, BANKROLL, resolved_count=12)
+    assert sharpe is None
+    assert status == SHARPE_ZERO_VARIANCE
+
+
+# ── /api/summary ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+class FakeDB:
+    def __init__(self, daily_closes, resolved_count, total_trades=60,
+                 win_rate=0.6, calibration=0.8):
+        self._closes = daily_closes
+        self._resolved = resolved_count
+        self._total = total_trades
+        self._win_rate = win_rate
+        self._calibration = calibration
+
+    async def get_metrics_history(self, days=1):
+        return [{
+            "win_rate": self._win_rate,
+            "calibration_score": self._calibration,
+            "unrealized_pnl_est": 0.0,
+            "realized_pnl": 299.06,
+            "total_pnl": 299.06,
+        }]
+
+    async def compute_metrics_from_db(self):
+        return {
+            "total_trades": self._total,
+            "open_count": self._total - self._resolved,
+            "closed_count": self._resolved,
+            "resolved_count": self._resolved,
+        }
+
+    async def get_open_position_data(self):
+        return {}, 0.0
+
+    async def get_recently_closed_inverted(self, hours=24):
+        return set()
+
+    async def get_legacy_incomplete_count(self):
+        return 0
+
+    async def get_daily_pnl_closes(self):
+        return list(self._closes)
+
+
+def _summary(db, monkeypatch) -> dict:
+    monkeypatch.setattr(api_main, "db", db)
+    monkeypatch.delenv("PAPER_BANKROLL", raising=False)
+    return asyncio.run(api_main.get_summary())
+
+
+def test_api_insufficient_sample_returns_null_with_explanation(monkeypatch):
+    """Current prod situation: 1 resolved, ~40 days → null Sharpe, not ready."""
+    db = FakeDB(daily_closes=[0.0] * 35 + [299.06] * 5, resolved_count=1)
+    s = _summary(db, monkeypatch)
+    assert s["sharpe_ratio"] is None
+    assert s["sharpe_status"] == SHARPE_INSUFFICIENT
+    assert s["resolved_count"] == 1
+    assert s["min_resolved_required"] == MIN_RESOLVED_TRADES == 10
+    assert s["days_observed"] == 40
+    assert s["min_days_required"] == MIN_DAYS_OBSERVED == 30
+    # One lucky resolved trade must never promote, even with perfect
+    # win_rate/calibration and 50+ trades.
+    assert s["promotion_ready"] is False
+
+
+def test_api_sharpe_appears_with_sufficient_sample(monkeypatch):
+    deltas = [10.0, 14.0, 8.0, 12.0, 6.0] * 8
+    db = FakeDB(daily_closes=_closes_from_deltas(deltas), resolved_count=12)
+    s = _summary(db, monkeypatch)
+    assert s["sharpe_status"] == SHARPE_OK
+    assert s["sharpe_ratio"] == pytest.approx(
+        compute_sharpe(_closes_from_deltas(deltas), BANKROLL)
+    )
+    assert s["sharpe_ratio"] >= 0.5
+    assert s["promotion_ready"] is True
+
+
+def test_api_not_ready_when_sharpe_below_threshold(monkeypatch):
+    # Zero-drift curve: mean return ~0 → Sharpe ≈ 0 < 0.5
+    deltas = [50.0, -50.0] * 20
+    db = FakeDB(daily_closes=_closes_from_deltas(deltas), resolved_count=12)
+    s = _summary(db, monkeypatch)
+    assert s["sharpe_status"] == SHARPE_OK
+    assert s["sharpe_ratio"] < 0.5
+    assert s["promotion_ready"] is False
+
+
+def test_api_not_ready_when_metrics_null(monkeypatch):
+    db = FakeDB(
+        daily_closes=_closes_from_deltas([10.0, 14.0, 8.0, 12.0, 6.0] * 8),
+        resolved_count=12,
+        win_rate=None,
+        calibration=None,
+    )
+    s = _summary(db, monkeypatch)
+    assert s["sharpe_status"] == SHARPE_OK
+    assert s["promotion_ready"] is False
+
+
+# ── MetricsTracker: no hardcoded 0.0 in the snapshot ─────────────────────────
+
+class FakeTrackerDB:
+    def __init__(self, daily_closes, resolved_count):
+        self._closes = daily_closes
+        self._resolved = resolved_count
+        self.saved = None
+
+    async def compute_metrics_from_db(self):
+        return {
+            "total_trades": 60,
+            "open_count": 40,
+            "closed_count": 20,
+            "resolved_count": self._resolved,
+            "wins_realized": self._resolved,
+            "unrealized_pnl_est": 0.0,
+            "realized_pnl": 100.0,
+            "total_deployed": 1000.0,
+            "total_fees": 20.0,
+            "calibration_score": 0.8,
+        }
+
+    async def get_daily_pnl_closes(self):
+        return list(self._closes)
+
+    async def save_daily_metrics(self, metrics):
+        self.saved = metrics
+
+
+def test_tracker_stores_null_sharpe_below_gate(monkeypatch):
+    monkeypatch.delenv("PAPER_BANKROLL", raising=False)
+    db = FakeTrackerDB(daily_closes=[0.0] * 35 + [299.06] * 5, resolved_count=1)
+    asyncio.run(MetricsTracker(db).update_daily_summary())
+    assert db.saved is not None
+    assert db.saved["sharpe_ratio"] is None
+
+
+def test_tracker_stores_real_sharpe_above_gate(monkeypatch):
+    monkeypatch.delenv("PAPER_BANKROLL", raising=False)
+    closes = _closes_from_deltas([10.0, 14.0, 8.0, 12.0, 6.0] * 8)
+    db = FakeTrackerDB(daily_closes=closes, resolved_count=12)
+    asyncio.run(MetricsTracker(db).update_daily_summary())
+    assert db.saved["sharpe_ratio"] == pytest.approx(
+        compute_sharpe(closes, BANKROLL)
+    )
+    assert db.saved["sharpe_ratio"] != 0.0