feat(metrics): real Sharpe ratio from daily PnL curve with minimum-sample gate
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sharpe_ratio was hardcoded to 0.0 in MetricsTracker and exposed as 'or 0' in /api/summary. With only 1 resolved trade (~40 flat days plus one +299 jump) any computed Sharpe is statistically meaningless, so: - bot/metrics/sharpe.py: annualized Sharpe (sqrt(365)) from daily total_pnl closes, normalized by bankroll; sharpe_with_gate() returns None + status until >=30 days observed AND >=10 resolved trades. - Database.get_daily_pnl_closes(): last metrics_daily snapshot per UTC day, oldest first — the return series input. - MetricsTracker: stores the real (gated) Sharpe in the snapshot, NULL below the gate; log line now includes sharpe. - /api/summary: live Sharpe + sharpe_status/days_observed/min_* fields explaining why it is null; resolved_count now live from COUNT(*). - promotion_ready: requires resolved>=10, days>=30, and non-null win_rate/calibration/sharpe plus existing thresholds — a single lucky resolved trade can no longer promote. - Dashboard Sharpe card shows the insufficient-sample explanation when null instead of a bare em dash. Tests: 13 new in tests/test_sharpe_gate.py (formula, gate, API contract, tracker snapshot); verified failing pre-fix. Suite: 62 passed. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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co-authored by
Claude Fable 5
parent
1797b79f7b
commit
43d9577fb2
+14
-3
@@ -15,12 +15,16 @@ win_rate Fraction of resolved closed trades with close_pnl > 0.
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NULL if fewer than 5 resolved trades.
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calibration_score 1 − AVG((final_prob − resolution)²) on resolved trades.
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Brier score (higher = better calibration). NULL if < 10 resolved.
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sharpe_ratio 0.0 — requires a daily-return time series, not yet tracked.
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sharpe_ratio Annualized Sharpe of the daily total_pnl curve (see
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bot/metrics/sharpe.py). NULL until the sample gate passes:
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>= 30 days observed AND >= 10 resolved trades.
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"""
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import logging
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import os
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from datetime import datetime, UTC
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from bot.data.db import Database
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from bot.metrics.sharpe import sharpe_with_gate
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log = logging.getLogger(__name__)
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@@ -61,6 +65,12 @@ class MetricsTracker:
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avg_edge = total_pnl / total_deployed if total_deployed > 0 else 0.0
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# Sharpe: real value from the daily PnL curve, NULL while the sample
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# gate (>=30 days observed, >=10 resolved) is not met.
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bankroll = float(os.getenv("PAPER_BANKROLL", "10000"))
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daily_closes = await self._db.get_daily_pnl_closes()
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sharpe, sharpe_status = sharpe_with_gate(daily_closes, bankroll, resolved)
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metrics = {
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"timestamp": datetime.now(UTC),
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"total_trades": int(raw["total_trades"]),
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@@ -74,7 +84,7 @@ class MetricsTracker:
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"total_pnl": total_pnl,
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"win_rate": win_rate,
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"avg_edge": avg_edge,
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"sharpe_ratio": 0.0, # requires daily-return series (not yet tracked)
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"sharpe_ratio": sharpe, # NULL until sample gate passes
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"calibration_score": calibration,
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"paper_mode": True,
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}
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@@ -83,9 +93,10 @@ class MetricsTracker:
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log.info(
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"Daily metrics | trades=%d (open=%d closed=%d resolved=%d) | "
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"unrealized=$%.2f realized=$%.2f total=$%.2f | "
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"win_rate=%s calibration=%s",
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"win_rate=%s calibration=%s sharpe=%s",
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metrics["total_trades"], open_count, closed_count, resolved,
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unrealized, realized, total_pnl,
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f"{win_rate:.1%}" if win_rate is not None else "n/a (<5)",
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f"{calibration:.3f}" if calibration is not None else "n/a (<10)",
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f"{sharpe:.2f}" if sharpe is not None else f"n/a ({sharpe_status})",
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)
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