feat(manifold): add outcome compatibility guard and conditional market rejection

Reject false-positive matches where Jaccard overlap is high but the outcome is
not equivalent (e.g. Poly nomination vs Manifold "If X is nominee, will he win").

- _is_conditional(): detect conditional Manifold markets (If/Conditional on/
  Assuming/Given that prefixes + mid-sentence " if ...," clauses) -> reject with
  reason "conditional_market".
- _classify_outcome(): classify into nomination|primary_win|general_win|
  conditional|other; reject when poly/mfld types differ or either is conditional
  -> reason "outcome_mismatch: poly=... manifold=...".
- Persist poly_outcome_type/mfld_outcome_type on ManifoldMatchResult, in
  manifold_match_audit (CREATE + idempotent ALTER), save_manifold_audit() and
  the bayesian call site.
- Tests covering classification, conditional detection and the Graham Platner
  regression (now rejected); valid nomination<->nomination still accepted.

Untouched: _MATCH_THRESHOLD (0.40), MANIFOLD_LOGODDS_WEIGHT, edge thresholds,
exposure, trading logic.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

bot/strategy/bayesian.py

@@ -470,6 +470,8 @@ class BayesianStrategy:
                             match_score=manifold_result.match_score,
                             match_reason=manifold_result.match_reason,
                             match_status=manifold_result.status,
+                            poly_outcome_type=manifold_result.poly_outcome_type,
+                            mfld_outcome_type=manifold_result.mfld_outcome_type,
                         )
                     except Exception as exc:
                         log.warning("Failed to save manifold audit: %s", exc)