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feat(manifold): add outcome compatibility guard and conditional market rejection
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Reject false-positive matches where Jaccard overlap is high but the outcome is
not equivalent (e.g. Poly nomination vs Manifold "If X is nominee, will he win").

- _is_conditional(): detect conditional Manifold markets (If/Conditional on/
  Assuming/Given that prefixes + mid-sentence " if ...," clauses) -> reject with
  reason "conditional_market".
- _classify_outcome(): classify into nomination|primary_win|general_win|
  conditional|other; reject when poly/mfld types differ or either is conditional
  -> reason "outcome_mismatch: poly=... manifold=...".
- Persist poly_outcome_type/mfld_outcome_type on ManifoldMatchResult, in
  manifold_match_audit (CREATE + idempotent ALTER), save_manifold_audit() and
  the bayesian call site.
- Tests covering classification, conditional detection and the Graham Platner
  regression (now rejected); valid nomination<->nomination still accepted.

Untouched: _MATCH_THRESHOLD (0.40), MANIFOLD_LOGODDS_WEIGHT, edge thresholds,
exposure, trading logic.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
chemavx
2026-05-31 15:28:26 +00:00
parent d51d47c921
commit 34fd1f8719
5 changed files with 253 additions and 10 deletions
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bot/data/schema.sql
+7 -1
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@@ -207,13 +207,19 @@ CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS manifold_match_audit (
match_score DOUBLE PRECISION,
match_reason TEXT,
match_status TEXT NOT NULL,
used_in_trade BOOLEAN DEFAULT FALSE
used_in_trade BOOLEAN DEFAULT FALSE,
poly_outcome_type TEXT,
mfld_outcome_type TEXT
);
CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_mfld_audit_timestamp ON manifold_match_audit(timestamp DESC);
CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_mfld_audit_status ON manifold_match_audit(match_status);
CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_mfld_audit_poly_mkt ON manifold_match_audit(poly_market_id);
-- Backfill outcome-type columns on pre-existing tables (idempotent).
ALTER TABLE manifold_match_audit ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS poly_outcome_type TEXT;
ALTER TABLE manifold_match_audit ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS mfld_outcome_type TEXT;
-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-- Metric exclusion — administrative closure flag
--