feat(manifold): add outcome compatibility guard and conditional market rejection

Reject false-positive matches where Jaccard overlap is high but the outcome is
not equivalent (e.g. Poly nomination vs Manifold "If X is nominee, will he win").

- _is_conditional(): detect conditional Manifold markets (If/Conditional on/
  Assuming/Given that prefixes + mid-sentence " if ...," clauses) -> reject with
  reason "conditional_market".
- _classify_outcome(): classify into nomination|primary_win|general_win|
  conditional|other; reject when poly/mfld types differ or either is conditional
  -> reason "outcome_mismatch: poly=... manifold=...".
- Persist poly_outcome_type/mfld_outcome_type on ManifoldMatchResult, in
  manifold_match_audit (CREATE + idempotent ALTER), save_manifold_audit() and
  the bayesian call site.
- Tests covering classification, conditional detection and the Graham Platner
  regression (now rejected); valid nomination<->nomination still accepted.

Untouched: _MATCH_THRESHOLD (0.40), MANIFOLD_LOGODDS_WEIGHT, edge thresholds,
exposure, trading logic.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

bot/data/db.py

@@ -530,6 +530,8 @@ class Database:
         match_score: Optional[float],
         match_reason: Optional[str],
         match_status: str,
+        poly_outcome_type: Optional[str] = None,
+        mfld_outcome_type: Optional[str] = None,
     ) -> None:
         async with self._pool.acquire() as conn:
             await conn.execute("""
@@ -537,13 +539,15 @@ class Database:
                     id, poly_market_id, poly_question, search_query,
                     mfld_market_id, mfld_market_title, mfld_market_url,
                     prob_raw, prob_final, inverted,
-                    match_score, match_reason, match_status, used_in_trade
-                ) VALUES ($1,$2,$3,$4,$5,$6,$7,$8,$9,$10,$11,$12,$13,FALSE)
+                    match_score, match_reason, match_status, used_in_trade,
+                    poly_outcome_type, mfld_outcome_type
+                ) VALUES ($1,$2,$3,$4,$5,$6,$7,$8,$9,$10,$11,$12,$13,FALSE,$14,$15)
             """,
                 audit_id, poly_market_id, poly_question, search_query,
                 mfld_market_id, mfld_market_title, mfld_market_url,
                 prob_raw, prob_final, inverted,
                 match_score, match_reason, match_status,
+                poly_outcome_type, mfld_outcome_type,
             )
 
     async def mark_manifold_audit_used(self, audit_id: str) -> None: