feat(replay): R1 replay core — clock injection + replay of archived cycles

Re-executes BayesianStrategy.evaluate() over the R0 archive and stores
results in replay_runs/replay_decisions, tagged with git sha + a hash of
the strategy constants (same hash vs archive = determinism check,
different hash = counterfactual run).

- bayesian.py: optional as_of param on evaluate()/_days_to_resolution()
  (clock injection; default None = wall clock, prod behavior unchanged —
  the only touch to frozen code, purely additive)
- bot/replay.py: replay engine + CLI (python -m bot.replay --from --to);
  ReplayNews feeds archived sentiment back (GNews never called, per-cycle
  budget bypassed — archived sentiment already encodes it); manifold/db
  not wired (observational-only in prod); recorded-vs-replayed compare
  at 1e-9 tolerance
- schema.sql: replay_runs + replay_decisions (+ indexes), idempotent
- db.py: 6 replay accessors/writers
- tests: 19 new round-trip fidelity tests (104 total green)

Validated against a real prod cycle (2026-07-02T14:03:15Z, 46 markets,
4 skip paths incl. the Georgia confidence record): 46/46 matched,
max float delta 0.0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

bot/data/schema.sql

@@ -370,3 +370,64 @@ CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS ext_snapshots (
     total_market_cap_change DOUBLE PRECISION,
     valid                   BOOLEAN
 );
+
+-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+-- Replay R1: replay core — re-execute evaluate() over the R0 archive
+--
+-- A replay run reads cycles from signals + ext_snapshots + markets, rebuilds
+-- the exact inputs (including archived news_sentiment — GNews is never called),
+-- re-runs BayesianStrategy.evaluate() with the archived cycle_ts as clock, and
+-- writes one replay_decisions row per (cycle, market).
+--
+-- replay_runs tags every run with the code (git_sha) and strategy constants
+-- (config_hash) that produced it: two runs over the same window with different
+-- config_hash values are a counterfactual comparison; same config_hash against
+-- the recorded rows is a determinism check (mismatches should be 0, modulo
+-- day-boundary crossings between cycle_ts and the original wall-clock).
+--
+-- matched: replayed decision equals the recorded one (skip_reason, probs,
+--   confidence, direction).  NULL when not comparable — e.g. reentry_guard
+--   rows, recorded outside evaluate() with no decision fields to compare;
+--   the replay still re-evaluates them, which is extra calibration data.
+-- mismatch_field: first field that differed, for triage.
+-- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS replay_runs (
+    run_id      TEXT PRIMARY KEY,
+    created_at  TIMESTAMPTZ DEFAULT NOW(),
+    git_sha     TEXT,
+    config_hash TEXT,
+    config_json TEXT,
+    from_ts     TIMESTAMPTZ,
+    to_ts       TIMESTAMPTZ,
+    cycles      INTEGER,
+    decisions   INTEGER,
+    matched     INTEGER,
+    mismatched  INTEGER,
+    note        TEXT
+);
+
+CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS replay_decisions (
+    id                   SERIAL PRIMARY KEY,
+    run_id               TEXT NOT NULL,
+    cycle_ts             TIMESTAMPTZ NOT NULL,
+    market_id            TEXT NOT NULL,
+    -- replayed outputs (same semantics as the signals columns)
+    skip_reason          TEXT,
+    prior_prob           DOUBLE PRECISION,
+    estimated_prob       DOUBLE PRECISION,
+    raw_final_prob       DOUBLE PRECISION,
+    edge_gross           DOUBLE PRECISION,
+    edge_net             DOUBLE PRECISION,
+    regime_min_edge      DOUBLE PRECISION,
+    days_to_resolution   INTEGER,
+    confidence           DOUBLE PRECISION,
+    direction            TEXT,
+    would_trade          BOOLEAN,
+    -- fidelity vs the recorded signals row
+    recorded_skip_reason TEXT,
+    matched              BOOLEAN,
+    mismatch_field       TEXT
+);
+
+CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_replay_decisions_run ON replay_decisions(run_id);
+CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_replay_decisions_mkt ON replay_decisions(market_id);